Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[The Brain]

The US plan to fight with total incompetence, childlike ignorance, and stubborn refusal to accept facts has not paid off so far, but who knows?

Fucking copycats.

[DGuller]

The south is melting down, that part has been clear for two weeks now.  I wouldn't necessarily breathe easily in New York or New Jersey, though.  They're doing well, and certainly nothing like Florida, but they're not extinguishing their case counts quickly enough, and the secondary trends are alarming.  The conclusion that I would draw from New York and New Jersey numbers is that it probably isn't as safe to open up as it may feel like, the embers are still glowing red hot.

[DGuller]

The US plan to fight with total incompetence, childlike ignorance, and stubborn refusal to accept facts has not paid off so far, but who knows?

Fucking copycats.

Are you referring to the Swedish response?  Is it the perception among the Swedes that the government response was not good?

[The Brain]

The US plan to fight with total incompetence, childlike ignorance, and stubborn refusal to accept facts has not paid off so far, but who knows?

Fucking copycats.

Are you referring to the Swedish response?  Is it the perception among the Swedes that the government response was not good?

No. I invented that strategy dammit. Hence my response.

[The Minsky Moment]

The south is melting down, that part has been clear for two weeks now.  I wouldn't necessarily breathe easily in New York or New Jersey, though.  They're doing well, and certainly nothing like Florida, but they're not extinguishing their case counts quickly enough, and the secondary trends are alarming.  The conclusion that I would draw from New York and New Jersey numbers is that it probably isn't as safe to open up as it may feel like, the embers are still glowing red hot.

Agreed on all counts.
Anecdotally I don't have any summer vaca plans yet but many friends and colleagues do.  There are kids going to camp and the schools plan to reopen as well.  The numbers seem OK right now but to what extent is that the product of the tough controls that are now being loosened?

[The Minsky Moment]

As bad as the economic restrictions have been, even worse would be to follow a stop-go boomerang pattern. America seems to have blown the opportunity to create effective and smart protocols for reopening.

[Iormlund]

News just broke, I presume we'll get some more details.

Here's the published article by the researchers, who don't doubt the result. Again, it's trace amounts on 2 out of 5 markers, so I'd certainly take it with a large amount of salt.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v1.full.pdf

I'm also skeptical. But it is interesting to note that sample was taken a few days after the Mobile World Congress.

[11B4V]

Yeah the new numbers coming out of the US look very disturbing.

'Murica

[Monoriu]

I don't understand what is going on in the US.  This isn't rocket science, or a total mystery.  This has been going on for some months, and there are proven measures that can manage the disease. 

Like mass producing and wearing face masks.

Social distancing. 

Shutting down of high risk activities or businesses.

Travel restrictions.

Contact tracing.

Large scale testing. 

Better management of hospitals.

Better personal hygiene. 

Do these, and you'll largely get through.  Europe managed it, lots of countries in Asia managed it.  The US, being one of the most successful nations on Earth, will be able to accomplish this with ease. 

[viper37]

I don't understand what is going on in the US.  This isn't rocket science, or a total mystery.  This has been going on for some months, and there are proven measures that can manage the disease. 

Like mass producing and wearing face masks.

Producing it is fine.  Wearing it is anti-American

Social distancing.

That requires a rule.  It is anti-American

Shutting down of high risk activities or businesses.

Totally is anti-American

Travel restrictions.

Freedom of travel is somewhere in the Constitution.

Contact tracing.

It is anti-American.  It infriges on your right to go wherever you want and do whatever you want.

Large scale testing. 

Since this of the FDC's resort, it actually requires a government that cares.  Black&hispanic americans are disproportionally affected.  They don't vote Republican.

Better management of hospitals.

That depends on the States.  And when they get overwhelmed, they require federal help.  Black&hispanic americans are disproportionally affected.  They don't vote Republican.
Better personal hygiene.  By definition, Blue States don't vote Republican.  Now it's Red States, but things are going better.  So the Prez and Vice-Prez says.  Who's goint to contradict God's messenger? 

Do these, and you'll largely get through.  Europe managed it, lots of countries in Asia managed it.  The US, being one of the most successful nations on Earth, will be able to accomplish this with ease. 

Europe, Asia and Canada managed it because they had the means and the will to manage it.
America only has the means.  For the 'will' part, it's up to every individual State.  Those who fucked up early on are now feeling the consequences.  Those who tought like our friend AR that an economic shutdown of 1-2 months would be worst than any other measure.

[Syt]

I believe the appropriate response to that is:




Meanwhile, there's a Rotary Club meeting created a new cluster of 20+ people in Salzburg.

[crazy canuck]

An analysis of some of the reasons the US failed.

That's why experts say the percentage of tests turning up positive results in the U.S. is drastically higher per capita than in Canada. If you test early and often, you identify cases quickly. If you test late, early cases will be missed and the positivity rate will be higher.

For each positive case in Canada, an average of 110 people are being tested. In the U.S., that number currently sits at about one for every 17 tests.

"When I look at the U.S. scenario, it's ... almost like watching a train wreck in slow motion, because a lot of it is quite predictable, mostly because they were really, really behind on getting testing started," said Dr. Lynora Saxinger, an infectious disease physician at the University of Alberta.

"They're expanding their testing now, but the percent positivity of their test is still going up, which is horrifyingly scary."

The rest of the article is mainly about how this was an obvious and predictable result.  It's just that politicians, and the general public deciding they could ignore the health experts.

Zeke Emanuel, who served in the Obama White House and has informally advised President Donald Trump, expressed exasperation that people kept looking for an immediate effect.

Launching into a sermon about the mathematical realities of exponential growth rates, Emanuel said the disastrous consequences of reopening too early would only emerge around early summer.

"Two months, not two weeks," Emanuel said in early May. "That's likely when you'll see the effects of what we're doing today. ... That's when people will recognize, 'Wow, now we've got 1,000 cases today, 3,000 cases tomorrow, 6,000 the next day.'"

He predicted the country would awaken to the disaster around mid-July.

It's happening ahead of schedule.

There is also a bit about how having a single payer system helps government organize the response.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/us-covid-19-surge-canada-1.5628979

[Sheilbh]

I think this Bloomberg piece is also very good - many American states re-opened once they had a sign (the slightest hint in the case of Arizona) that the curve was bending. In Europe the approach has generally been to only re-open once the curve is "broken".

So it goes to the two factors that matter - the R value and the prevalence. Many US states have opened with a far higher prevalence/incidence which means there's more chance of the virus spreading.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-26/coronavirus-a-horrifying-rise-in-u-s-covid-cases-is-explained

[crazy canuck]

I think this Bloomberg piece is also very good - many American states re-opened once they had a sign (the slightest hint in the case of Arizona) that the curve was bending. In Europe the approach has generally been to only re-open once the curve is "broken".

So it goes to the two factors that matter - the R value and the prevalence. Many US states have opened with a far higher prevalence/incidence which means there's more chance of the virus spreading.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-26/coronavirus-a-horrifying-rise-in-u-s-covid-cases-is-explained

Yep, "reopening" for many American states is a misnomer, they never really closed.

[The Minsky Moment]

Do these, and you'll largely get through.  Europe managed it, lots of countries in Asia managed it.  The US, being one of the most successful nations on Earth, will be able to accomplish this with ease.

Results = capacity + motivation + competence

The US is fine on capacity but 1 out of 3 is not enough.