Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Syt]

The Austrian government is considering to end the mandatory quarantine for people who test positive for Covid. Instead, they want to implement restrictions, i.e. if you've tested positive, you're required to wear a mask when out in public.

I'm not sure how this would be enforced in any shape or form. 

[Sheilbh]

I think it's like the Brexit effect, just worldwide - people are exhausted and would rather pretend it's not a thing anymore, and it has decreased to a level where we can manage that.

I think that's just how pandemics end. It's rare to wipe out the disease - especially once it's globally endemic. You get vaccines and treatments, which will keep improving, and there's a point when the number of deaths is low enough that the public accept that over any inconveniences (which will vary society by society).

And it is worth noting that there are still deaths from covid but, in the UK, at least we're back in the pre-pandemic average deaths and fluctuating between 1.1 and 0.9 of expected deaths.

Even on a personal level these days it's "oh Sam's got covid again lol" rather than the dire "Holy shit is he OK?" it once was

Yep - I think everyone I know has had it at least once (including people who would have been exceptionally vulnerable in the first wave) but the vaccines (and treatments) have really done their work.

[Jacob]

I know a number of people who never got Covid, but also some folks who've gotten it 3 or more times.

[Zoupa]

On the point to which you responded, I think that most people here agree with me, and probably you understand I am right as well. Which is why you didn't address the point.

Nevertheless, look at the deaths by state.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/

An absolute majority of them are in New York and New Jersey. Europe is getting creamed compared to the US. It seems dense urban populations reliant on public transportation are the vulnerable populations (completely the opposite of the crap being peddled about vulnerable rural populations).

This is in spite of the Trumpist governors staying open for spring break or allowing people to go camping. We are doing dramatically better than Europe despite being led by the Orange One.

A one size fits all solution of "lock everything down" does not seem to be indicated. Those bird watchers walking alone in the lake district really aren't contributing to the disease spread.

How can you still be so stubbornly myopic? 4 weeks ago we had ~200 cases. Currently we have 279,000. Every city is going to get hit. NY and NJ won't be half the deaths by mid May. You're saying we're doing better than Europe today (we aren't) but places like Italy and Spain are further in their curve than places like Florida or Mississippi. It's a facile comparison.

A state like Alabama is going to have ~20-25% more deaths per capita than New York by the time we're done with this outbreak. Up to half of the state has either diabetes, morbid obesity, COPD, or is above age 60. They're not alone in having such a high per capita rate of vulnerable citizens.

If you are strict now in these places with few deaths you save more lives than if you're strict once it because apparent to the stubborn AR's of the world that we should have done something 4 weeks ago.

Now we have more data! An exasperated Fate said I was being stubbornly myopic!!! Was I, or was he?

It is mid May. 44% of deaths are still in New York and New Jersey - while less than half it isn't looking like Florida and Mississippi.

Were Florida and Mississippi just further behind on the curve than Italy and Spain?

Current death rates per 1 million:

Florida: 87.3
Mississippi: 165.7
Italy: 523.1
Spain: 587.7

Actually, it seems like Italy and Spain really were just doing worse. Sorry fate.

Is Alabama going to have ~20-25% more deaths per capita than New York by the time we're done with this outbreak? It isn't over yet of course, but right now the numbers per million are:

New York: 1416.1
Alabama: 97.1

Alabama has an immense amount of ground to make up.

Data as of July 25th, 2022. Looks like Alabama did make up that ground.

[The Minsky Moment]

Just goes to show you can never count out Alabama, regardless of the odds.  And also why the unofficial state motto of Alabama is Thank God for Mississippi.

[Syt]

The Austrian government is considering to end the mandatory quarantine for people who test positive for Covid. Instead, they want to implement restrictions, i.e. if you've tested positive, you're required to wear a mask when out in public.

I'm not sure how this would be enforced in any shape or form. 

So yeah. Starting 1st August, people who test positive but "don't feel sick" are not required to be in quarantine. They're required to wear masks at work, in shops, etc., but not outside if they can maintain 2 m distance to others.

They are not permitted into hospitals eand similar. And if there's only infected persons in a workplace, there's no need for masking up.

Not sure how this is going to be enforced, as nobody will ask for tests anywhere anymore, and I also assume that much fewer people will go to get tested regularly (we're doing weekly tests for work atm).

P.S.: the government agrees that it will be very difficult to enforce but they appeal to everyone's personal responsibility ( ).

[alfred russel]

On the point to which you responded, I think that most people here agree with me, and probably you understand I am right as well. Which is why you didn't address the point.

Nevertheless, look at the deaths by state.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/

An absolute majority of them are in New York and New Jersey. Europe is getting creamed compared to the US. It seems dense urban populations reliant on public transportation are the vulnerable populations (completely the opposite of the crap being peddled about vulnerable rural populations).

This is in spite of the Trumpist governors staying open for spring break or allowing people to go camping. We are doing dramatically better than Europe despite being led by the Orange One.

A one size fits all solution of "lock everything down" does not seem to be indicated. Those bird watchers walking alone in the lake district really aren't contributing to the disease spread.

How can you still be so stubbornly myopic? 4 weeks ago we had ~200 cases. Currently we have 279,000. Every city is going to get hit. NY and NJ won't be half the deaths by mid May. You're saying we're doing better than Europe today (we aren't) but places like Italy and Spain are further in their curve than places like Florida or Mississippi. It's a facile comparison.

A state like Alabama is going to have ~20-25% more deaths per capita than New York by the time we're done with this outbreak. Up to half of the state has either diabetes, morbid obesity, COPD, or is above age 60. They're not alone in having such a high per capita rate of vulnerable citizens.

If you are strict now in these places with few deaths you save more lives than if you're strict once it because apparent to the stubborn AR's of the world that we should have done something 4 weeks ago.

Now we have more data! An exasperated Fate said I was being stubbornly myopic!!! Was I, or was he?

It is mid May. 44% of deaths are still in New York and New Jersey - while less than half it isn't looking like Florida and Mississippi.

Were Florida and Mississippi just further behind on the curve than Italy and Spain?

Current death rates per 1 million:

Florida: 87.3
Mississippi: 165.7
Italy: 523.1
Spain: 587.7

Actually, it seems like Italy and Spain really were just doing worse. Sorry fate.

Is Alabama going to have ~20-25% more deaths per capita than New York by the time we're done with this outbreak? It isn't over yet of course, but right now the numbers per million are:

New York: 1416.1
Alabama: 97.1

Alabama has an immense amount of ground to make up.

Data as of July 25th, 2022. Looks like Alabama did make up that ground.

While the trend line is clear and it looks like they will clear that hurdle at some point in the future, you are bad at math. They have not yet made up that ground.

New York's deaths per capita in your chart are 357. For Alabama to be 20-25% more they would need to be in the range of 428.4-446.25. They are just at 406.

I also think the relevance ceases post vaccine and with the disease endemic. Who really cares if people die of covid that won't get vaccinated?

[HVC]

What if they really wanted to rock climb and couldn't risk a sore arm?

[Zoupa]

 

[Zoupa]

Now we have more data! An exasperated Fate said I was being stubbornly myopic!!! Was I, or was he?

Data as of July 25th, 2022. Looks like Alabama did make up that ground.

While the trend line is clear and it looks like they will clear that hurdle at some point in the future, you are bad at math. They have not yet made up that ground.

New York's deaths per capita in your chart are 357. For Alabama to be 20-25% more they would need to be in the range of 428.4-446.25. They are just at 406.

I also think the relevance ceases post vaccine and with the disease endemic. Who really cares if people die of covid that won't get vaccinated?

 

Your metric was "when all this is over", not "once we have had a vaccine for over a year".

Fate was pretty much right, and you are pretty much stubbornly myopic.

[alfred russel]

Your metric was "when all this is over", not "once we have had a vaccine for over a year".

Fate was pretty much right, and you are pretty much stubbornly myopic.

That wasn't my metric, that was Fate's.

I don't agree that Fate was right. The disease is endemic. The "outbreak" phase has long ended--he used that term; but if you want to take it to mean the duration of covid which is likely going to extend beyond the duration of our lifetimes--it is certainly not clear that Alabama is going to be worse than New York. Deaths per capita is a bizarre metric to use for public health in any event.

Assume a simple world where all deaths are from heart disease, cancer, covid, guns, and auto accidents.

The average Alabaman seems more likely to die per unit time vs. the average New Yorker from each one of those causes. But in the long run everyone will die exactly 1 time. If an average Alabaman is more likely to die from heart disease, cancer, guns and auto accidents, then by definition they will be less likely to die from covid.

We could end up in a scenario where the initial outbreak hit New York much harder in deaths per capita, with its vaccine hesitancy Alabama takes the lead in the medium term, but with lower life expectancies and general ill health New York regains the lead over the long term.

[Zoupa]

The copium is strong in this one.

[alfred russel]

The copium is strong in this one.

What do you think I'm trying to cope with?

I thought it was dumb to shut down outdoor recreation and try to restrict freedom of movement. I thought and think everyone should get vaccinated asap and with vaccines there isn't much point to continuing restrictions.

[Zoupa]

You've posted a thousand times, digging up old posts and calling out folks "see!!! I was right!!! Every one can see I was right!!! Just admit I was right guys!!!".

It's funny watching you trying to cope with the fact you were in fact, wrong. I know you'll never admit it though, but the squirming is entertaining. 

[alfred russel]

You've posted a thousand times, digging up old posts and calling out folks "see!!! I was right!!! Every one can see I was right!!! Just admit I was right guys!!!".

It's funny watching you trying to cope with the fact you were in fact, wrong. I know you'll never admit it though, but the squirming is entertaining. 

What was I wrong about?