Notes From a Climate Change Frontline?

[mongers]

I've been sitting here for the last few days watching the river level gradually rising and waiting to get flooded.

The night before last it reached and equaled the record high, but we didn't have household flooding. Kind of odd sensation, as I'm well prepared, know what to do and ready to get the clear up and renovation underweight promptly, just half waiting.

Which got me thinking about the 'causes' of this situation, is it in part climate change?

I don't know and could wait a half a century here and still not have proof. My gut feeling is it's playing a part, but probably not the major one, the natural inclination of the river to wander across it's valley flood plain probably has a bigger effect and it's time 'she' wants to come and live on this side of her domain for a couple of centuries.

I will say however, these houses hadn't flooded in the first 100 years since built, even though they're on a former 'island' by/in the river. So 1999 was the first time, and we'd probably have had it a dozen years ago and certainly now if it weren't for the defenses.

Because despite in some senses being on a 'frontline' to climate change, it's nothing like the dangers faced by those in low lying parts of the 3rd world; one can feel a certain empathy, but I think that's an affectation because of the resources deployed by our modern state.

Here we've got the best part of a couple of million dollars of infrastructure defending just a dozen houses; built up bunds / flood walls, outside here is a multi-tens of kilowatt permanent pumping station bailing us out 24 hours a day, using goodness know how much power.  And the other day three engineers and environmentalists were here for a few hours checking it was all working. This all must cost a pretty penny, defending against something which in the long run should be allowed take it's course, literally. 

So my question to you is, 'What if any signs of climate change have you experienced or seen, that you think are real?'

[Monoriu]

It is blindingly obvious that the climate is getting warmer.  Christmas now feels like what Spring used to be.  Summers are getting even hotter.  Typhoons are stronger, and more frequent. 

[Tamas]

Are there dams keeping the river normally out of its flood plain, Mongers? If the river used to spread the stuff it was carrying on a much bigger plain, that stuff is now just piling up on its floor every year.

This is one areawhere we as humans should respect the forces of nature better, and just not settle so deep into floodplains.

[Maladict]

The harsh winters of the mid 80s I remember as a kid turned out to have been the last ones. My parents remember being able to cross frozen rivers on foot, that won't happen again.

But most importantly, thinking about keeping the water out is shifting. The new river flood defenses are built on the idea of giving up land in case of floods, instead of trying to keep the water out at all costs. Some scenarios are starting to include this idea into the coastal defenses as well.

[mongers]

Are there dams keeping the river normally out of its flood plain, Mongers? If the river used to spread the stuff it was carrying on a much bigger plain, that stuff is now just piling up on its floor every year.

This is one area where we as humans should respect the forces of nature better, and just not settle so deep into floodplains.

Oh indeed, and this is just a moderately medium sized river (for England) A maximum of about 100 cubic metres a second flow, so no need for dams nor for that matter anywhere to put them.

[Eddie Teach]

Are there dams keeping the river normally out of its flood plain, Mongers? If the river used to spread the stuff it was carrying on a much bigger plain, that stuff is now just piling up on its floor every year.

This is one areawhere we as humans should respect the forces of nature better, and just not settle so deep into floodplains.

But they're worth an extra food!

[Sheilbh]

Flooding in my mum and dad's village. Which, on the one hand I've not seen before, in this village, but does affect other villages fairly regularly and is a river network that floods.

So again I'm not convinced there's much to do with climate change on this one

[Legbiter]

Here in Reykjavík the ever present danger is not so much some hysterical Gretian Ragnarök where the plebs finally get their well deserved painful death for enjoying electricity, it's just regular winter weather. Tourists here in Iceland routinely get seriously injured and die of exposure and cold for lack of proper outdoors clothing and common sense. Yes, it's a pretty postcard we live in but it will kill you dead if you're stupid.

Less common hazards include powerful earthquakes and ash from volcanic eruptions. I always keep a week's worth of rations in tinned food and water plus arctic gear for the entire family. In case of the zombie apocalypse I have a rural homestead as a backup.

[mongers]

Flooding in my mum and dad's village. Which, on the one hand I've not seen before, in this village, but does affect other villages fairly regularly and is a river network that floods.

So again I'm not convinced there's much to do with climate change on this one

Yes the Piddle is like that, more up and down than our river.

edit:
Looking at the ground water levels up on the downs in Dorset, S.Wilts and W.Hants, they are currently near, at or even above record highs.

Which could be driving a lot of the flooding, if the chalk is absolutely saturated. And that'll be feedback from exception rain, which may or may not be being pushed by climate change.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Our river, the Ribble, has not got as high in recent years after wet weather. It is a swift-flowing river so any excess rain tends to removed quickly; if we do ever get flooded it would be very dangerous. I'm wondering if changes in agricultural practices up in Bowland (perhaps re-afforestation) is making the river less prone to surges; or, possibly, climate change is leading to more of the rain getting dumped on the other side of the Pennines?

[viper37]

So my question to you is, 'What if any signs of climate change have you experienced or seen, that you think are real?'

Winter temperatures are fluctuating more often.  Sure, we did have ice storms in the past.  But between 1980s and 2000, I think there were 2 or 3 ice storms in my area.  Now, it's one every year, sometimes twice a year.

Above zero temps after November where a rarity.  Then once per year, now multiple times a winter.

Much less snow.  I used to build forts in the backyard, and glide on top.  Granted, I'm a little bigger   but I'd pitty the kids wanting to do that nowadays.  Even a very snowy winter like last one, there would be hardly any snow to make a decent fort.

[Sheilbh]

Yes the Piddle is like that, more up and down than our river.

edit:
Looking at the ground water levels up on the downs in Dorset, S.Wilts and W.Hants, they are currently near, at or even above record highs.

Which could be driving a lot of the flooding, if the chalk is absolutely saturated. And that'll be feedback from exception rain, which may or may not be being pushed by climate change.

Yeah. We're fairly far upstream and it doesn't normally flood up here, but the ground is absolutely sodden.

Having said that it regularly floods down in Wareham etc.

[Syt]

Vienna has experienced - once again - one of the hottest summers last year (year was ranked as #3 overall, but that's mainly due to May being the coldest in 30 years, dragging the average down). We had 40 days over 30 degrees, and Hod knows how many over 25. Vienna is generally a windy city, but it helps little in summer.

The city is moving towards combating the heat, slowly. Immediate quick fixes last year were sprinklers/water sprays in certain places that heat up significantly during summer. While Vienna has a lot of green spaces, the city has a sad history of turning open urban spaces into concrete and asphalt wastelands (Schwarzenbergplatz, Praterstern, the large open area near Westbahnhof), ...

Last year, there was a number of "mobile trees" that were placed in various areas for a month to see the impact additional vegetation would bring for the areas. In one lamentable instance an unknown person cut a dozen of them down because they were blocking parking spaces.

Incentives for more building greens (rooftop gardens/lawns, or plants covering facades) are slow to come, and even slower to be accepted, especially in the hard hit inner districts where house owners are loathe to change the historic looks of the buildings.

[mongers]

Vienna has experienced - once again - one of the hottest summers last year (year was ranked as #3 overall, but that's mainly due to May being the coldest in 30 years, dragging the average down). We had 40 days over 30 degrees, and Hod knows how many over 25. Vienna is generally a windy city, but it helps little in summer.

The city is moving towards combating the heat, slowly. Immediate quick fixes last year were sprinklers/water sprays in certain places that heat up significantly during summer. While Vienna has a lot of green spaces, the city has a sad history of turning open urban spaces into concrete and asphalt wastelands (Schwarzenbergplatz, Praterstern, the large open area near Westbahnhof), ...

Last year, there was a number of "mobile trees" that were placed in various areas for a month to see the impact additional vegetation would bring for the areas. In one lamentable instance an unknown person cut a dozen of them down because they were blocking parking spaces.

Incentives for more building greens (rooftop gardens/lawns, or plants covering facades) are slow to come, and even slower to be accepted, especially in the hard hit inner districts where house owners are loathe to change the historic looks of the buildings.

Syt, hanks for that, interesting and bewildering.

[Syt]

Speaking of frontlines - wasn't aware how much Lake Chad has shrunk.