The Recession Megathread

[Iormlund]

Perhaps not the best choices for riding out the coming storm.

They've both hit bottom and are heading up (cheap to buy now), plus are buoyed by the EU. There's nothing to support the US when it tanks. Plus, c'mon. It's Spain! Or Italy! If I'm going to ride out a recession, why not go there??

Spain is superb in pretty much anything but jobs. It's a pretty big con, though.

Last I heard they are making it even harder to get in, too. You'd need ~40k € salary to qualify for our H1B equivalent, which in the private sector is something like the 95 percentile.

[merithyn]

Italy is about as unstable politically as they come and are going hard right.  Spain is a great place to visit for lengthy amounts of time but to actually work there? I am not so sure.

And that is in the best of times.  When another great recession hits those two countries are going to suffer.

My employment is portable, and while not entirely recession-proof, it's about as close as you can get. All I need is a cheap place to land.

[Tamas]

There are good (or at least valid) arguments for Spain IMHO, but Italy has a very decent chance of turning VERY nasty.

[crazy canuck]

Italy is about as unstable politically as they come and are going hard right.  Spain is a great place to visit for lengthy amounts of time but to actually work there? I am not so sure.

And that is in the best of times.  When another great recession hits those two countries are going to suffer.

My employment is portable, and while not entirely recession-proof, it's about as close as you can get. All I need is a cheap place to land.

Not only cheap but someplace that actually has jobs on offer.  If you can get a job in Spain that will survive an economic downturn then more power to you

My only point is there are better economic options than Spain.

[merithyn]

Not only cheap but someplace that actually has jobs on offer.  If you can get a job in Spain that will survive an economic downturn then more power to you

I have a relatively-recession proof job that will move with me. I won't need a job offer.

My only point is there are better economic options than Spain.

There are other options, yes. I'm saying that Spain has it's own appeal to me.

[The Minsky Moment]

Wrong thread.

he's our last hope to stop the recession damn it

[The Minsky Moment]

Big defensive dive into bonds today, the treasury yield curve inversion deepened despite the Fed's move.  That would tend to provide support for Tamas' side of the bet.

The real question is not whether there will be a recession - sooner or later it always happens and getting the exact timing is a fool's game.  The question is how bad and how deep it will be.

[dps]

So, the Fed has cut the interest rate, first time in a decade.

We will be in recession by this time next year, I am calling it.

Change my mind!

If we're going to have a recession, best if it hits before the 2020 general election.

[mongers]

Big defensive dive into bonds today, the treasury yield curve inversion deepened despite the Fed's move.  That would tend to provide support for Tamas' side of the bet.

The real question is not whether there will be a recession - sooner or later it always happens and getting the exact timing is a fool's game.  The question is how bad and how deep it will be.

Rubbish, the revenues from the amazing Trump tariffs will see America through the worst.

[crazy canuck]

Big defensive dive into bonds today, the treasury yield curve inversion deepened despite the Fed's move.  That would tend to provide support for Tamas' side of the bet.

The real question is not whether there will be a recession - sooner or later it always happens and getting the exact timing is a fool's game.  The question is how bad and how deep it will be.

Not too worried about getting the timing right, I know it is coming and I am just waiting for it to happen with cash on hand to buy when it does.  I missed some of the last bit of this upside but I can sleep at night.

[grumbler]

Big defensive dive into bonds today, the treasury yield curve inversion deepened despite the Fed's move.  That would tend to provide support for Tamas' side of the bet.

The real question is not whether there will be a recession - sooner or later it always happens and getting the exact timing is a fool's game.  The question is how bad and how deep it will be.

My normally-bullish financial advisor and I agreed today that we were going to retreat from the market.  He's been right every time so far.

Hold on to your socks, not your stocks.

[Razgovory]

I keep having thoughts of a man in naval uniform (which is how always imagine Grumbler) and a Minotaur running in panic.

[jimmy olsen]

If a recession is coming, I'd prefer it start 1st quarter next year, rather than this fall. Better impact on the election.

[Zanza]

Germany probably already is in a recession as it looks like the economy might at best stagnate, more likely shrink in the current quarter after a contraction in the second quarter. Germany has low unemployment and reasonable debt though, so it should cope.

My industry - automotive- is already in a global recession as markets everywhere are contracting. At the same time, huge investments are necessary.  We had seven fat years, now it looks like lean years ahead...

[Syt]

How much is the severity of a recession linked to reputable analysts warning about the recession and market participants acting on those warnings?