The Recession Megathread

[Valmy]

Why would low inflation be bad?

It depends.

It's complicated.

[celedhring]

Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.

Modern civilization is too efficient so we can't keep everybody employed by producing only things we actually require, hence we need people to buy things they actually don't.

[Maximus]

Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.

I expect it's at least partially a result of increased income and wealth inequality, but I am no economist.

[DGuller]

Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.

Modern civilization is too efficient so we can't keep everybody employed by producing only things we actually require, hence we need people to buy things they actually don't.

You can always go for more leisure rather than more useless crap.  Would thing really be awful if 10 hours of work a week would be productive enough to fulfill all your material needs?

[crazy canuck]

https://econofact.org/whats-the-problem-with-low-inflation

Low inflation can be a signal of economic problems because it may be associated with weakness in the economy. When unemployment is high or consumer confidence low, people and businesses may be less willing to make investments and spend on consumption

Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.

Is that all you learned from the link?

[Habbaku]

Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.

Modern civilization is too efficient so we can't keep everybody employed by producing only things we actually require, hence we need people to buy things they actually don't.

You can always go for more leisure rather than more useless crap.  Would thing really be awful if 10 hours of work a week would be productive enough to fulfill all your material needs?

The real trouble here is I can't parcel my leisure out very well in most industries, but have to essentially purchase leisure in a big chunk at the end of working life. It is, I suppose, possible for many people to transition to part-time work as they age rather than stopping all at once, but that's not practical for most.

[PDH]

The real trouble here is I can't parcel my leisure out very well in most industries, but have to essentially purchase leisure in a big chunk at the end of working life. It is, I suppose, possible for many people to transition to part-time work as they age rather than stopping all at once, but that's not practical for most.

I mostly just work half-assed to maximize my leisure.

[Valmy]

https://econofact.org/whats-the-problem-with-low-inflation

Low inflation can be a signal of economic problems because it may be associated with weakness in the economy. When unemployment is high or consumer confidence low, people and businesses may be less willing to make investments and spend on consumption

Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.

Is that all you learned from the link?

No. That was a very interesting link. Thanks.

I was just making a joke about Americans failing to consume enough.

[DGuller]

Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.

Modern civilization is too efficient so we can't keep everybody employed by producing only things we actually require, hence we need people to buy things they actually don't.

You can always go for more leisure rather than more useless crap.  Would thing really be awful if 10 hours of work a week would be productive enough to fulfill all your material needs?

The real trouble here is I can't parcel my leisure out very well in most industries, but have to essentially purchase leisure in a big chunk at the end of working life. It is, I suppose, possible for many people to transition to part-time work as they age rather than stopping all at once, but that's not practical for most.

Yeah, the fact that productivity is probably superlinear with hours worked up to a point makes it hard to buy more leisure incrementally.  More stuff would be produced by 25% of workers putting in 40 hours a week compared to 100% of workers putting in 10 hours.  I don't know what the solution is, but I'm not convinced there isn't one.

[Josquius]

I've been saying this for years, it isn't just Americans.
Where once the biggest limiter in the economy was how much could be produced, for some time now  consumers have been a more valuable commodity than producers.

[HVC]

UBS saying to sell stocks

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/the-worlds-biggest-wealth-manager-just-told-clients-to-sell-stocks-—-saying-brace-for-higher-volatility-from-the-trade-war/ar-AAGpc1B?ocid=spartanntp

[Tamas]

UBS saying to sell stocks

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/the-worlds-biggest-wealth-manager-just-told-clients-to-sell-stocks-—-saying-brace-for-higher-volatility-from-the-trade-war/ar-AAGpc1B?ocid=spartanntp

Does that mean they have already taken up short positions, or that they are still looking to buy?

[grumbler]

UBS saying to sell stocks

I think UBS has always been in favor of selling stocks, as needed.  Now they aren't saying sell off all stocks, but, rather, take a more conservative position less dependent on stocks.

The right stocks still represent a good long-term value.

[HVC]

yeah, they say to diversify and sell off higher risk stocks. the article itself says a recession is unlikely, but I wanted to be alarmist dammit lol

[Syt]