European Parliament elections 2019

[Agelastus]

hmm, so  Farage has 31.8 and UKIP has 3.4.   Thats 35.2% for the unambiguously pro Brexit.
Meanwhile the Greens have 12.2, Lib Dems 20.4, and CHUK 3.5. Thats 36.1% for the unambiguously anti Brexit. Add on the SNP and its 39.1%.

I await Labour and the Tories announcing that this is clear proof the people are desperate for brexit.

edit- forgot PC. 40.3% for remain parties.

Yes.

Now Scotland has finally declared (and ignoring NI for the moment) -

Total unambiguous leaver = 34.9%

Total unambiguous remainer = 40.39%

However, as the Tories remain committed to carrying out the result of the referendum that makes the figures -

Total unambiguous referendum implementer = 40.69%

Total unambiguous referendum discarder = 40.39%

[I'm very unhappy with how I've phrased the second term - "discarder" - but I was having trouble of thinking of anything better since I feel that all the parties involved would greatly prefer to kill the referendum result in parliament rather than have a second referendum.]

Then, of course, we have the "inscrutable" faction, Labour with it's 14.1% and 10 MEPs.

Of course, the above leaves "implementers" with 33 MEPs to "discarders" 27 - but that's an artefact of the idiot system used; we have constituencies that are too big for the local voter to care about that send an effective slate of representatives to Europe that normally includes at least 50% people who the average voter would not want to represent them in any way (by which I mean, as a demonstrative example, a Lib Dem doesn't want to be represented by a Brexit Party member and vice-versa) while at the same time said constituencies are still to small. While said constituencies are far too big for a FPTP supporter the North East, for example, has 3 MEPs who collectively are supported by 48% of the vote in the current system. I would imagine that this is not something that would impress a PR supporter.

----------------------------------------

I said before the referendum that the result needed to be unambiguous whichever side one - and after the result I am fairly sure you'll find me posting that such a close result, regardless of which side one, was close to the worst of all possible worlds for the outcome.

The Euro elections have not improved the situation significantly enough for either side.

[Maladict]

If the UK is leaving, how important are the EU elections beyond signaling?

If the signals are overwhelming enough, they might not be leaving.

[garbon]

If the UK is leaving, how important are the EU elections beyond signaling?

If the signals are overwhelming enough, they might not be leaving.

Okay but we should keep thoughts on the real world not unlikely hypotheticals. The UK is divided as ever on Brexit.

[Syt]

In Austria, the seats are given according to party lists. However, voters can manually write in names of their preferred candidate in the party they vote for.

In this case, H.C. Strache (the main actor in the Ibiza video) was moved from the last place on the list (a common solidarity position for party leaders as it's unlikely they'd be voted to EU parliament) towards the top and would now qualify for a mandate in Brussels/Strasbourg.

Strache posted on social media that he is honored and feels obliged to accept this trust and the EU mandate ... but then deleted the post shortly thereafter.

[Duque de Bragança]

Despite various scandals involving nepotism and tax fraud of the current Prime Minister, António Costa, PS (centre-left) wins in Portugal. Costa still benefits from the economic recovery and austerity being linked to the former PSD / CDS-PP govt.
Final results have yet to arrive, but it's already a clear PS victory. PSD (centre-right) second. BE Leftists third, Communists coalition fourth and CDP/PP Conservatives fifth. PAN, Greens, a surprising sixth.

Extremely high abstention, only 30 % of those registered deigned to vote. Not a surprise, unfortunately.

[Solmyr]

By the way, the Finnish MEPs from the nationalist Finns party may be the most parody-prone yet. First we have Teuvo Hakkarainen, an alcoholic who has been convicted of sexual assault (against his fellow MP) and inciting violence against an ethnic groups. He also apparently speaks nothing but Finnish. Then we have Laura Huhtasaari, the (according to Languish) hot chick who ran for President a couple of years ago. She's a creationist, fraternizes with borderline Nazi groups, and her greatest international experience was attending Trump's prayer breakfast.

So yeah.

[celedhring]

Looks like the separatists will win Barcelona. They actually have 40% of the vote but given the election system (which is a bit FPTP when it comes to elect the major) they'll control the city unless there's a very improbable alliance involving Valls, the socialists and the current lefty major.

Well, this actually happened! Kudos to Valls because he went against the wishes of the party he associated with (Cs) and voted for Ada Colau to retain the mayor post, defeating the separatist candidate. In the end, his whole excursion down here was worth something.

[Duque de Bragança]

If you are so happy with this opportunist bastard, you can keep it!

[Duque de Bragança]

In other Benny Hill Loiseau or Macron news:

President Emmanuel Macron's handpicked candidate to lead a new centrist alliance in the European Parliament said on Thursday she was pulling out of the race, in a blow to French government influence in the parliament.

Nathalie Loiseau was quoted by Belgian media disparaging allies in Renew Europe, formed by Macron's party and the liberal ALDE, and saying she planned a sweeping overhaul of the grouping, the third biggest in the European Parliament.

Loiseau described the comments, made during an off-record briefing to journalists in Brussels, as "pure fiction" but the leak damaged her credibility just as jostling for the leadership of the bloc intensified.

Loiseau was quoted in Belgium's Le Soir and France's Le Canard Enchaine calling ALDE's longtime leader Guy Verhofstadt "an old git with pent-up frustrations" and branding the conservative EPP's candidate for Commission president an "ectoplasm".

Her remarks on seeking to revamp the centrist grouping meanwhile alarmed those in the alliance wary of Macron gaining too much influence.

An official in Macron's office sought to downplay Loiseau's exit from the race, saying the president's ambitions were in no way diminished.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/06/13/macron-suffers-setback-in-eu-parliament-as-party-pays-price-for-gaffes

[celedhring]

If you are so happy with this opportunist bastard, you can keep it!

He's getting hitched with a local millionaire, so I guess he's staying and living the good life.

[Duque de Bragança]

If you are so happy with this opportunist bastard, you can keep it!

He's getting hitched with a local millionaire, so I guess he's staying and living the good life.

Win-win! 

[Syt]

HC Strache has announced that he will not accept his EU parliament mandate.

This was left up in the air after the Ibiza video leak in which he was shown trying to make a deal with a supposed niece of a Russian oligarch (a decoy) for taking over the country's biggest paper, and trading government contracts with inflated prices for positive coverage, plus advising on how to donate money to the party while avoiding party financing regulations.

After the leak he got 45000 write in votes for the EU parliament, which would secure him a mandate.

In his announcement he thanked those voters who didn't allow themselves to be "manipulated, deceived, or confused." 

[celedhring]

The Citizens party have broken up with Valls after he voted for the reelection of the lefty Barcelona mayor. Talk of the town is that he's going to set up his own shack - he got back his Spanish citizenship months ago, so he could run for election at the regional/national level. My bet is that he's going to end back in the socialist camp in the next 4 years.

[Duque de Bragança]

The Citizens party have broken up with Valls after he voted for the reelection of the lefty Barcelona mayor. Talk of the town is that he's going to set up his own shack - he got back his Spanish citizenship months ago, so he could run for election at the regional/national level. My bet is that he's going to end back in the socialist camp in the next 4 years.

*Bis repetita placent*

Opportunistic Valls?
Surprise, surprise!

[Zanza]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48841980

Ursula von der Leyen: Merkel ally nominated for EU top job

Ursula von der Leyen's name is unlikely to have cropped up in early conversations as European leaders wrangled over the best candidate to replace Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

But after proposed compromise deals collapsed, Germany's defence minister has emerged from the shadows as their nominee for the top job.

If successful - her nomination requires parliamentary approval - Ms Von der Leyen would be the first woman to take on the Commission presidency, with responsibilities including proposing new EU laws, enforcing the bloc's rules and handling trade deals.

Born in Brussels, her family moved to Germany when she was 13. She studied economics at London's LSE and medicine in Hanover before going into politics.

A close ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, she has been a member of Mrs Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) since 2005.

Now 60, Ms Von der Leyen is the mother of seven children, highly unusual in a country where the average birthrate is 1.59 children per woman.

She is seen as a staunch integrationist, backing closer military co-operation in the EU and highlighting earlier this year the "potential Europe has to unify and to promote peace".

Her appointment as German defence minister in 2013 was unexpected and followed three months of coalition talks between the CDU and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).

From that moment, she quickly grew in popularity among the German public. As defence minister in the EU's most industrialised and populous country, she has argued for Germany to boost its military involvement in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato).

However, her tenure in the defence post has not been without its failures.

In recent years, a litany of stories have exposed inadequacies in Germany's armed forces, from inoperable submarines and aircraft to shortages of personnel.

A report published last year highlighted the shortfalls, saying they were "dramatically" hindering Germany's readiness for combat. It said that no submarines or large transport planes were available for deployment at the end of 2017.

Last week, two German air force jets were involved in a mid-air collision during a military exercise over north-eastern Germany.

While her appointment was initially seen as a fresh start for a Germany ministry beset by problems, Ms Von der Leyen was last year questioned as part of an investigation into spending irregularities.

Her defence department was accused of awarding questionable private contracts to consultants that were said to be worth millions of euros.

She later admitted that a number of errors were made in allocating contracts and that new measures were being implemented to prevent it happening again.

Eh, what...? Not a big fan. She relied way too much on consultants and could not really change the mess that is the Ministry of Defence, the Bundeswehr and military procurement in Germany to the better. I would not consider her a successful politician in her current role - which she had six years. I guess she's experienced in ministerial jobs (she's been in all of Merkel's cabinets) and also a staunch European federalist, but really... her as EU commission chief. Bizarre. Let's see if the EP confirms her tomorrow.


They also named Christine Lagarde, current head of the IMF as next ECB president. I consider that a very good choice as she obviously has the experience and I had a positive impression of her over the last decade or so beginning with the Euro crisis.