Elon Musk: Always A Douche

[HVC]

Ironically quality control will probably go up.

*edit* also, knowing musk, probably his petulant screw you to unions.

[crazy canuck]

China deserves 50 Musks

[The Minsky Moment]

Contracting manufacturing to China sounds like he's trying to treat Tesla like Apple?

Wasn't Musk the guy who said he knows more about manufacturing than anyone alive? Seems a waste to not leverage that competitive edge...

Pure speculation.
But combine the high level meetings in the PRC + the Baidu deal + gutting the product teams, and it seems to follow.

Tesla is facing brutal competition in China and losing sales to far more price competitive alternatives. And those Chinese manufacturers are rapidly pushing out.  Even in the US where China EV are not yet a factor, Tesla has had to cut prices in the face of competition.  We've discussed this in the thread, but there is no conceivable way to maintain the high valuation when the core company business is capital intensive manufacturing of a product with thin margins.

The choice is between sticking it through on the manufacturing side and accepting a big re-rating of the stock price downward, or pivoting to the "AI" capability --> ???? --> Profit plan and hoping he can fill in the blanks.

[Jacob]

Yeah it sort of makes sense. It also potentially gives Chinese EV manufacturers a way to start cracking the US market, using the Tesla brand.

[Zanza]

On AI, so far, Tesla has been more risk prone, but not significantly more successful on its advanced driving assistance systems than their competitors. Whether that risk is actually smart will eventually be settled in courts over suits on the crashes their system caused.

Maybe they can actually achieve a breakthrough in their FSD, which would be quite impressive as they have less sensor hardware than e.g. Waymo or other car manufacturers. A pure software driven feature with neglible hardware would be worth something. Not sure if it is worth Tesla's market cap though if they move out of their current business.

[Zanza]

Yeah it sort of makes sense. It also potentially gives Chinese EV manufacturers a way to start cracking the US market, using the Tesla brand.

They will just build plants in Mexico and start importing from there. Are brands really important in the low price volume segment?
I feel Tesla's brand appeal is being avantgarde, early adopter, tech geek etc. Selling a random Chinese car with that brand might not work well.

[Zanza]

The Baidu deal seems irrelevant. They are selling navigation and PoI data to all of Tesla's competitors too. It's just the Google Maps of China. I could not find anything deeper than that in press announcements. Baidu has deeper cooperation with e.g. Geely, a Chinese car manufacturer. And Baidu supposedly wants to build robo taxis itself.

[Sheilbh]

The Baidu deal seems irrelevant. They are selling navigation and PoI data to all of Tesla's competitors too. It's just the Google Maps of China. I could not find anything deeper than that in press announcements. Baidu has deeper cooperation with e.g. Geeky, a Chinese car manufacturer.

I believe it's legally required to sell EVs in China to use a Chinese navication company. I think that's all - it was interpreted as a step to sell locally made Teslas in China.

Yeah it sort of makes sense. It also potentially gives Chinese EV manufacturers a way to start cracking the US market, using the Tesla brand.

I suspect the US won't really allow that those cars will be in the US or, as Zanza says, Mexico - there's a lot of signs of Chinese (and American) manufacturers moving some work to Mexico in order to get around increasing trade barriers.

Of course the question I'd hope the US is asking is possibly how Chinese companies or sites might be involved on the AI side of things. I think you have to assume it's real first to consider the risk rather than hand-waveyness.

[Zanza]

I believe it's legally required to sell EVs in China to use a Chinese navication company. I think that's all - it was interpreted as a step to sell locally made Teslas in China.

Yes. Same as all other foreign car manufacturers: you have to share knowledge with Chinese partners if you want market access. But why is that supposedly a big success? 

[Sheilbh]

They didn't have it previously - I think they also got approved under China's data protection and cybersecurity laws (and allowing data transfers from China). All necessary steps to be allowed to sell FSDs (specifically) in China. It's not regulatory approval but from what I read the market reaction was because those were seen as the major hurdles.

[Josquius]

The firing the whole charger team thing is weird. Heard today it's big sign along with some others that they're in trouble.

[HVC]

It's one of their big competitive advantages, at least in North America, not sure how widespread non tesla charging is in Europe. Speaking for canada the infrastructure sucks in general, but even saying that tesla's is still better.

[Jacob]

Google map link of Tesla factory in Germany - from March 2024.

If you turn on the satellite layer, you'll see a lot of Teslas - apparently unsold - sitting in the parking lots around the factory.

[viper37]

https://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/tesla-employee-laid-off-story-19433626.php

Tesla lay off story

4/15 Monday

4:30am:
Opened my laptop, account was de activated. Thought it was just another IT problem, so didn't think anything of it.

5:00am
I usually check my emails while on my autopilot commute to work (1hr 30min drive)
Email read: "Unfortunately as a result, your position has been eliminated by this restructuring."

5:05am
Texted my manager, but he said "everyone got it, we'll get more info later"

5:50am
Tried to badge in, and the security guard took my badge and told me I was laid off

6:00am
Sat in my car in disbelief.

Tesla timeline:
07/22/2019 - 04/15/2024

About 5 years at Tesla. Half a decade!

At one point in 2023 I was even sacrificing sleeping in my car on work days just to avoid commuting to work. Showered at the factory and slept in the parking lot. Microwaved dinner in the break room.

Sacrificed a lot for the company. But this is just a small part of a chapter that is ending, and there's a whole book waiting to be written. I'm only 29 years old and have a lot more career time in me.

I went from Production Associate, to Lead Production Associate, to being a Production Supervisor. Starting from the very bottom and worked my way up. Learned a lot of adapting to the ever-changing environment, to working with less but getting more done.

In the middle of my career, when I was a lead, I met the most funny and humble supervisor named Louie Afusia. Louie taught me about delegating, following up, and finishing through. He used to tell me: "listen to the people, not against them." I even played semi pro football with him one Spring season. But he taught me a lot about leadership, and i'm glad to have met him in my career at Tesla. He was this huge Somoan USO, that had a good heart.

Louie passed away in 02/2023. He's gone, but not forgotten.

How you make something last forever is you inspire the next generation and then the next. Always leave the place better than you found it.

One thing Tony Stark (Ironman) said in the movie Avengers Endgame:

"Part of the journey is the end"

[Zanza]

Google map link of Tesla factory in Germany - from March 2024.

If you turn on the satellite layer, you'll see a lot of Teslas - apparently unsold - sitting in the parking lots around the factory.

The plant makes like 800-1000 cars a day, so that's what, two or three days of inventory? I know that other OEMs have similar parking spaces near their factories. Seems normal.

According to Tesla's numbers, they built 433,000 vehicles and delivered approximately 387,000 vehicles in Q1, so their inventory went up significantly in Q1, hurting cash flow.