Have Smartphones Destroyed a Generation?

[The Minsky Moment]

You see this with the automation and value of labor arguments, and I think that is very wrong. Just because we've gone through tech adjustments that changed how labor was allocated before, and the result was better efficiency but still full need for human labor, doesn't guarantee that will always be the case. And indeed, simple logic will tell us that *at some point* it CANNOT be the case. The value of human labor has been going down, and continues to go down, and at some point will basically become zero.

The value of human labor has been increasing for two centuries and automation is one reason why (the other main contributors being investments in human capital and physical infrastructure).   

The "problem" we have is that human labor has become to valuable to do things like dig out rocks with shovels and hands, or bash pieces of metal together in factories, or perform very simple repetitive tasks.  It's really a feature not a bug - but it does become a problem when our society and culture cannot adjust quickly enough to that reality.

The concern of running out of jobs for people to do - its not happening yet in America.  Since 2010, total jobs keep increasing by about 150-200K a month.  The BLS forecast over the next decade shows some occupations declining but others rising.

Longer term it's hard to say but one feature of the post-1800 world was rapid increases in population.  Over the past few decades, more and more countries are experiencing demographic transitions to much lower growth rates - much of the OECD either at zero or negative now, and even many developing countries are slowing.  So again I would suspect we will not see labor disappearing in our lifetime.

That said it's conceivable that at some future date the labor-leisure tradeoff may be much more slanted to leisure than today.  If so, it could be the attainment of the dreams of Marx (" hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening, criticise after dinner") or Keynes' Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren.  It is only scary because our current cultural and political suppositions are so ill-suited for such a world.  To quote Keynes:

Thus we have been expressly evolved by nature-with all our impulses and deepest instincts-for the purpose of solving the economic problem. If the economic problem is solved, mankind will be deprived of its traditional purpose.

The much-maligned millennial generation - who seem to value leisure and personal interests over traditional economic status markers as compared to prior generations - may not be the shiftless, entitled, and self-absorbed snowflakes they are mocked as being.  They may instead be the early stages of a rational evolutionary-cultural response to emerging technological reality that is changing the nature of work.

[alfred russel]

If so, it could be the attainment of the dreams of Marx (" hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening, criticise after dinner")

I think Brain already rears cattle most evenings.

[The Brain]

Hey!

[Grinning_Colossus]

The much-maligned millennial generation - who seem to value leisure and personal interests over traditional economic status markers as compared to prior generations - may not be the shiftless, entitled, and self-absorbed snowflakes they are mocked as being.  They may instead be the early stages of a rational evolutionary-cultural response to emerging technological reality that is changing the nature of work.

And we're right on schedule.

For at least another hundred years we must pretend to ourselves and to every one that fair is foul and foul is fair; for foul is useful and fair is not. Avarice and usury and precaution must be our gods for a little longer still. For only they can lead us out of the tunnel of economic necessity into daylight.

[Savonarola]

theirs is a generation shaped by the smartphone and by the concomitant rise of social media. I call them iGen.

P-p-p-eople try to put them down
(Talking 'bout iGeneration)
Just cause they don't g-g-get around
(Talking 'bout iGeneration)

[Savonarola]

Seriously, though, this relates to something my cousin (the psychologist turned yoga instructor in the anime thread) once told me.  At one time she had been a college counselor; and, like me, she came from a time when there was conversation, letters, landline phones and not much else.  So when students came to talk to her about conversations they had with their friends which upset them, she'd often have to stop them midway and ask "Wait, where did this conversation occur?"  Texting was then the hot new technology and by changing the medium of conversation it had changed the impact and understanding of what was being communicated; leading to misunderstandings that wouldn't have happened in a face to face conversation.  That in turn could be devastating for a younger person.

Snapchat, Facebook and whatever the hot new social media platform is are probably even worse in that respect (and, as the article says, would make it much easier for a cyber-bully.)

[Savonarola]

If you haven't had much experience with them how do you know they are the worst?

Spicy is confident in his prejudice.

Heh, I fist read Derspiess quote and thought, "That's ridiculous, I work with a lot of educated hard working millennials, like Talal, Thiago, Nikolay, Dong, Christiane, Harish, Alejandra, Vinicius, Rafael... oh."



That's more of a tribute to GE's ability to misuse the H1-B visa than a condemnation of the US born millennials.