The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[Sheilbh]

Advocate General of CJEU has given an opinion in favour of Junqueras. Mostly seems like common sense points. The Court doesn't always, but normally follows the AG's opinion.

[The Larch]

PSOE and Podemos have just announced an agreement to form a coalition government. I don't know wether to laugh or cry, all while despairing the whole time.

[celedhring]

Oh, the arguments for not giving Junqueras his seat always looked a bit dodgy to me, but at least the Spanish Court made the step of consulting with the ECJ (Junqueras' sentence is suspended until the ruling).

Still, the Advocate General concedes that the sentence effectively removes him from office, so it won't help Junqueras much, but if the court rules in that direction it will affect others.

[celedhring]

PSOE and Podemos have just announced an agreement to form a coalition government. I don't know wether to laugh or cry, all while despairing the whole time.

Could have done that 3 months ago, indeed.

[The Larch]

PSOE and Podemos have just announced an agreement to form a coalition government. I don't know wether to laugh or cry, all while despairing the whole time.

Could have done that 3 months ago, indeed.

It would have saved so much grief. We'd still have an at least nominally liberal party as the 3rd force in parliament rather than a far right one.

Let's see if they now can get enough support to get to 176 MPs.

[celedhring]

Incidentally, the coalition agreement includes language about "fomenting talks in Catalonia, seeking formulas of agreement and understanding, within the Constitutional framework". Of course all the separatist parties are already howling that this is an unacceptable red line.

When they say "Spain, sit and talk" they mean "Spain, give us what we want".

[Sheilbh]

I think the blame for the Cs supporting the far-right rather than being a normal liberal party (see also Macron's views on this) are with the Cs rather than the left.

[The Larch]

I think the blame for the Cs supporting the far-right rather than being a normal liberal party (see also Macron's views on this) are with the Cs rather than the left.

For sure. Basically, what happened was that Rivera got drunk on his own Kool-aid, and after the previous elections, when PP dropped to their historical minimum, saw overcoming them as a real possibility, thus becoming the main right wing party in Spain. They then went hard to the right in some issues, dropping centrist voters along the way and being outcompeted by a resurgent PP and Vox on the right, ending up in a bit of a middle of nowhere politically. The party is now in disarray, and what they do in the next months will determine their future viability, if there's any to be had.

[Iormlund]

I think the blame for the Cs supporting the far-right rather than being a normal liberal party (see also Macron's views on this) are with the Cs rather than the left.

It's a bit more complicated than that.

Just about the only red line Cs has is separatism. That is what it was born against.

That line was first crossed by Iglesias in 2015 in order to provoke new elections by making a PSOE-Cs-podemos government impossible (he was gambling on becoming the new left replacing PSOE).
After the UDI Sánchez also crossed that line (perhaps to keep his significant amount of Catalan voters). Sánchez also tried to paint Cs as radical right, knowing perfectly well that they both split the moderate vote. Rivera gladly helped him by trying to replace PP (in a repetition of Iglesias' aforementioned failure).

The end result was that Cs could no longer look to the left for pacts. All that remained were PP+Vox. And that's where we are now.

[Valmy]

I think the blame for the Cs supporting the far-right rather than being a normal liberal party (see also Macron's views on this) are with the Cs rather than the left.

For sure. Basically, what happened was that Rivera got drunk on his own Kool-aid, and after the previous elections, when PP dropped to their historical minimum, saw overcoming them as a real possibility, thus becoming the main right wing party in Spain. They then went hard to the right in some issues, dropping centrist voters along the way and being outcompeted by a resurgent PP and Vox on the right, ending up in a bit of a middle of nowhere politically. The party is now in disarray, and what they do in the next months will determine their future viability, if there's any to be had.

Ok so where did the centrist voters flee to?

[Iormlund]

Ok so where did the centrist voters flee to?

I stayed home. I was not alone. There are at least a million unaccounted center votes in the last election alone. And many of us bailed in the previous one, after Rivera turned right.

[Valmy]

Abandoning the base to try to reach new voters has tanked many a political party. Well hopefully they put Ines in charge next time.

[Iormlund]

They are done for, I think. Their liberal core was purged or left in protest long ago. Plus the Spanish electoral system is no FPTP, but still quite ruthless on minority parties (unless they are concentrated on a few provinces).

[The Larch]

I think the blame for the Cs supporting the far-right rather than being a normal liberal party (see also Macron's views on this) are with the Cs rather than the left.

It's a bit more complicated than that.

Just about the only red line Cs has is separatism. That is what it was born against.

That line was first crossed by Iglesias in 2015 in order to provoke new elections by making a PSOE-Cs-podemos government impossible (he was gambling on becoming the new left replacing PSOE).
After the UDI Sánchez also crossed that line (perhaps to keep his significant amount of Catalan voters). Sánchez also tried to paint Cs as radical right, knowing perfectly well that they both split the moderate vote. Rivera gladly helped him by trying to replace PP (in a repetition of Iglesias' aforementioned failure).

The end result was that Cs could no longer look to the left for pacts. All that remained were PP+Vox. And that's where we are now.

We have very different readings of some of the events that took place. 

When did, in your opinion, Podemos and PSOE cross the red line of separatism exactly?

[Valmy]

They are done for, I think. Their liberal core was purged or left in protest long ago. Plus the Spanish electoral system is no FPTP, but still quite ruthless on minority parties (unless they are concentrated on a few provinces).

Ah. Well where is the liberal core going? I presume they are not staying home forever.