The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[Iormlund]

Let's be real for a second here. A government without money is no government at all. There is no "parallel government" scenario unless there's actual blood on the streets.

[Barrister]

The existing Catalan government will be in jail by then.

My understanding is that Madrid has been trying very hard not to go down that route (for good reason).

[Oexmelin]

The revolution of 1776 would have failed if it was a peaceful political movement, it only succeeded because it was a military one, and we won the war. It didn't have close to enough votes to win in an actual democratic process. 

I think if you seek to secede from a country in a peaceful way, it is very important to have an unambiguously strong amount of support. The Catalan movement doesn't even unambiguously have 50% of the voters of Catalonia, lot along some stronger amount, which to my mind would be necessary for a legitimate and proper peaceful democratic process. 

I agree with all of this. What I disagree with is that the separatist movement of Catalunya is somehow illegitimate because it can't spontaneously generate an elusive "overwhelming majority" (hence the allusion to American Independence). 

[Berkut]

So Oex would you agree the Confederacy was justified in seceding, and Lincoln was wrong to use force to defend the union?

The US was on fairly dubious ground in using force to keep the South within the union.  There was no referendum, but it seems there was little doubt that there was substantial support for succession.

Oh?

What percentage of Southerners do you think supported secession?

[celedhring]

The existing Catalan government will be in jail by then.

My understanding is that Madrid has been trying very hard not to go down that route (for good reason).

They have been very careful, but it's really hard to look to the other side when there's open rebellion.

[Berkut]

The revolution of 1776 would have failed if it was a peaceful political movement, it only succeeded because it was a military one, and we won the war. It didn't have close to enough votes to win in an actual democratic process. 

I think if you seek to secede from a country in a peaceful way, it is very important to have an unambiguously strong amount of support. The Catalan movement doesn't even unambiguously have 50% of the voters of Catalonia, lot along some stronger amount, which to my mind would be necessary for a legitimate and proper peaceful democratic process. 

I agree with all of this. What I disagree with is that the separatist movement of Catalunya is somehow illegitimate because it can't spontaneously generate an elusive "overwhelming majority" (hence the allusion to American Independence). 

What a bizarre notion - that actual support from the people involved apparently isn't important when deciding the legitimacy of killing people to secure a political change you cannot achieve via democratic means.

[Oexmelin]

So Oex would you agree the Confederacy was justified in seceding, and Lincoln was wrong to use force to defend the union?

It's an interesting topic, but I don't want it to hijack this thread with another american-centric discussion.

Obviously, as this thread reveals, people read independence movements from the sort of precedents they have appropriated - American Civil War, Quebec independence, Brexit/Scotland.

[Iormlund]

The existing Catalan government will be in jail by then.

My understanding is that Madrid has been trying very hard not to go down that route (for good reason).

Yes, and even now they are minimizing prosecutions. On Monday prominent members of both Govern and the Parlament will be indicted for rebellion (which carries up to 30 years). Individual MPs will be left alone for now, apparently.

[Barrister]

So Oex would you agree the Confederacy was justified in seceding, and Lincoln was wrong to use force to defend the union?

The US was on fairly dubious ground in using force to keep the South within the union.  There was no referendum, but it seems there was little doubt that there was substantial support for succession.

Oh?

What percentage of Southerners do you think supported secession?

I don't know, but it does appear a majority, if not a significant majority, did.  There were some areas that of course did not (West Virginia, parts of eastern Tennessee and northern Alabama), but the majority of the south went happily along.

Majority of the white population of course.

[Drakken]

They're independent.  What Madrid says is now immaterial.  The existing Catalan government can announce that they are still the Catalan government, and they will hold elections on their own timetable.

They are not. No sovereign country is currently recognizing them, so they hold no sovereignty in international law. In fact, both US and Canada today said they recognized Spain as remaining united. Independence is now immaterial, unless they kick Spain out and control their territory, that is.

[Berkut]

So Oex would you agree the Confederacy was justified in seceding, and Lincoln was wrong to use force to defend the union?

The US was on fairly dubious ground in using force to keep the South within the union.  There was no referendum, but it seems there was little doubt that there was substantial support for succession.

Oh?

What percentage of Southerners do you think supported secession?

I don't know, but it does appear a majority, if not a significant majority, did.  There were some areas that of course did not (West Virginia, parts of eastern Tennessee and northern Alabama), but the majority of the south went happily along.

Majority of the white population of course.

Interesting.

Is there some reason you are arguing that we should ignore the wishes of the non-white population when it comes to determining the legitimacy of a secession movement on the basis of the opinions of the people who live in the areas in question?

[celedhring]

The Catalan Government has been inside the Generalitat "executing" the mandate of independence. I guess they will come out soon with a flurry of measures, including non-acceptance of the intervention. Whatever else they mandate (i.e. seizing of infrastructures) will dictate how much shit hits the fan.

[Josquius]

Obvious it had to happen but...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_Republic_(2017)

[garbon]

The Catalan Government has been inside the Generalitat "executing" the mandate of independence. I guess they will come out soon with a flurry of measures, including non-acceptance of the intervention. Whatever else they mandate (i.e. seizing of infrastructures) will dictate how much shit hits the fan.

This is all so crazy.

[Barrister]

Let's be real for a second here. A government without money is no government at all. There is no "parallel government" scenario unless there's actual blood on the streets.

I really don't think it's that easy.

I don't think Madrid can suddenly stop sending money to Catalunya.  They would hardly want schools, hospitals, and police to suddenly close up(I don't know the details of exactly what powers have been devolved to the regional government, but you get the idea).  If they did, you run the major risk that support for independence will go up, not down.