The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[Ed Anger]

Y'all need Suchet to restore order.

[Drakken]

Rajoy's government and the Socialist opposition came to an agreement for new regional elections to be held in Catalonia this January - obviously without the Catalan parliament's prior consent since Article 155 is all but a formality now.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41693318

[Josquius]

The moderate majority of pro independnece people have come around right?
As this sounds increasingly messy.

[celedhring]

It will be messy. It looks like the Catalan Parliament will formally issue an UDI next week and will decree that it no longer recognizes Spain's authority to take over. In the long run Spain wins, if only because it holds the keys to the treasury and the Generalitat is utterly bankrupt, but we could be facing a lot unstability in the next weeks. What the regional police does will be key - the brass is loyal to the separatists, as is a sizable part of the agents, but are they really willing to embrace armed rebellion?

[Valmy]

I think the main reason that Spain will win is because the separatists lack an overwhelming mandate. That have, at best, a narrow one.

But it sounds like with the EEC and the EU and the lack of funds their hand is even weaker than that. So why are they gambling on this? They must think this will ultimately allow them to win eventually.

[celedhring]

I think the main reason that Spain will win is because the separatists lack an overwhelming mandate. That have, at best, a narrow one.

But it sounds like with the EEC and the EU and the lack of funds their hand is even weaker than that. So why are they gambling on this? They must think this will ultimately allow them to win eventually.

It will keep them alive politically. If they surrendered it would kill the cause for a generation and the separatist coallition would collapse to infighting between moderates and radicals, but "evil Spanish repression against the mandate of the people" adds a bunch of grudges to the "we are oppressed!!!!" list, and keeps them united and mobilized.

[Valmy]

So it is less about achieving their actual goals and more about venal political strategerey? I mean they stand to lose a lot here...er...rather I mean Catalonia stands to lose a lot here.

[celedhring]

So it is less about achieving their actual goals and more about venal political strategerey? I mean they stand to lose a lot here...er...rather I mean Catalonia stands to lose a lot here.

I never expect nationalists to actually care for the welfare of the people they claim to defend. It's Catalonia above all, including the Catalans.

[celedhring]

First poll since the referendum says that 68.6% of Catalans want regional elections, only 30% support an UDI. Separatist support for the UDI hovers around 60%, which isn't that high given that they are, well, separatists.

Poll is from the second largest Catalan paper, moderate leftist, whose editorial line in the issue is "can't we all just get along?"

[celedhring]

Rajoy announcing the scope of the intervention:

- Regional elections in maximum of 6 months (preferably earlier)
- Catalan president and his cabinet are deposed. Everybody else remains in place and reports to the state.
- Parliament will remain in place and active, but any legislation put for a vote can be vetoed by the state if it's judged to be against the Constitution. Parliament can't appoint another Catalan president until the election.

This is not immediate. Has to be debated in the Senate, etc... probably going to be approved this next Friday.

I suppose in a few minutes the regional government will declare that it doesn't accept the intervention. And then the wheels are well and truly off.

EDIT: Catalan president to make a declaration at 21.00

[Iormlund]

That was rather mild. Let's see what the Mossos do when they have to engage separatist targets ...

[celedhring]

Catalan president announces that Parliament will meet to debate the answer to the suspension (no date yet, likely Tuesday some say even Monday). Doesn't directly mention an UDI, but one assumes that's what's going to be on the table.

[Iormlund]

Prez of the Catalonian Parlament: "Applying article 155 of the Constitution is unconstitutional".   

[celedhring]

Its limits have never been constitutionally tested, because it has never been used before.

I suppose the Constitutional Court will be very busy in the coming months.

[Drakken]

Prez of the Catalonian Parlament: "Applying article 155 of the Constitution is unconstitutional".   

How can an article of the Constitution be unconstitutional?