The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[Iormlund]

Bank run! The largest Catalan bank (Caixabank), in turn the 3rd largest Spanish bank, has lost the equivalent of 33% of 2017's new deposits in the last 30 days. Both them and BancSabadell (second largest Catalan bank, and 4th largest Spanish bank) are cratering in the stock market.

The Spanish finance minister has come out and said that "Catalans don't need to fear for their savings" which to me means I should. 

So how big are Mataláixa bank deposits among independentists and/or nationalists?

They are by far the biggest players in the region. However, they also have (fortunately for them) interests outside Catalonia, acquired after the banking debacle a while back.

They have three problems here: first political. If they do nothing, they lose business from the rest of Spain (there are calls for boicots of Catalonian firms). If they do move to Madrid, they might lose business from Catalonians (their core market).
Second: liquidity. Nobody wants to have funds in a bank that might collapse at any second now. And if it still happens to be located at an independent Barcelona when that happens they would fall out of the Spanish deposit guarantee scheme.
Third: exposure. Since a Catalonian UDI is seen as an economic disaster, those firms more exposed to business in Catalonia are liable to suffer.

[Iormlund]

Celed, can you give us the highlights of Puigdemont's speech? All I got was a call to dialogue.

[Barrister]

They have three problems here: first political. If they do nothing, they lose business from the rest of Spain (there are calls for boicots of Catalonian firms). If they do move to Madrid, they might lose business from Catalonians (their core market).

Is the rest of Spain trying to drive Catalans away?  The message that should be sent out now is how much TROS (the Rest of Spain) loves Catalonia.  Hell set up a massive counter-protest in Barcelona with people from all over Spain waving Spanish AND Catalan flags.

[celedhring]

Celed, can you give us the highlights of Puigdemont's speech? All I got was a call to dialogue.

We're peaceful, we're being misrepresented to the public opinion outside of Catalonia, the king is nasty, we want negotiation but we intend to implement the results of the referendum.

There's two ways of seeing it:

1) He's just posturing since Madrid will reject any negotiation that doesn't involve explicit renounciation of independence (which he won't give).

or

2) He's shitting bricks after the EU gave him the cold shoulder and the king pretty much promised no quarter, and wants a way to gain time and put off the UDI.

I'm leaning for 1), but no doubt there are quite a few in the separatist side that are at 2)

[celedhring]

They have three problems here: first political. If they do nothing, they lose business from the rest of Spain (there are calls for boicots of Catalonian firms). If they do move to Madrid, they might lose business from Catalonians (their core market).

Is the rest of Spain trying to drive Catalans away?  The message that should be sent out now is how much TROS (the Rest of Spain) loves Catalonia.  Hell set up a massive counter-protest in Barcelona with people from all over Spain waving Spanish AND Catalan flags.

They've been trying that and it hasn't done much. When love fails, self-interest triumphs.

There's an unionist demo scheduled this sunday, one day before the UDI. These demos have always bombed (even though roughly half the population votes for different shades of unionism), we'll see what happens now.

[Drakken]

Is the rest of Spain trying to drive Catalans away?  The message that should be sent out now is how much TROS (the Rest of Spain) loves Catalonia.  Hell set up a massive counter-protest in Barcelona with people from all over Spain waving Spanish AND Catalan flags.

Why? The referendum is done, there is nothing left for the people to decide, and the Catalan government already said to Madrid and the King to go f--- themselves. They are in a state of apprehended rebellion and the UDI is almost set in motion.

What purpose would this serve? Those million-or-so in the streets of Barcelona have already decided they want to separate AND they control the streets.

[Barrister]

Is the rest of Spain trying to drive Catalans away?  The message that should be sent out now is how much TROS (the Rest of Spain) loves Catalonia.  Hell set up a massive counter-protest in Barcelona with people from all over Spain waving Spanish AND Catalan flags.

Why? The Referendum is done and the Catalan government already said to Madrid and the King to go f--- themselves. They are in a state of apprehended rebellion and the UDI is almost set in motion.

What purpose would this serve? Those millions in the streets of Barcelona have already decided they want to separate AND they control the streets.

If the Catalans go the route of a UDI the matter is in part now up to world opinion.  If the Catalans can demonstrate to the world they have a distinct community that is united in its desire to be independent, then that helps their cause.  If instead the world sees that Catalan public opinion is divided on the issue, that hurts their cause.

[Drakken]

Celed, can you give us the highlights of Puigdemont's speech? All I got was a call to dialogue.

We're peaceful, we're being misrepresented to the public opinion outside of Catalonia, the king is nasty, we want negotiation but we intend to implement the results of the referendum.

There's two ways of seeing it:

1) He's just posturing since Madrid will reject any negotiation that doesn't involve explicit renounciation of independence (which he won't give).

or

2) He's shitting bricks after the EU gave him the cold shoulder and the king pretty much promised no quarter, and wants a way to gain time and put off the UDI.

I'm leaning for 1), but no doubt there are quite a few in the separatist side that are at 2)

Since the Audiencia Nacional has already decreed and delivered an order of arrest for all members of the Catalan government and the head of the Mossos, what is the reason stopping Madrid for going in already to arrest them?

[celedhring]

If the Catalans go the route of a UDI the matter is in part now up to world opinion.  If the Catalans can demonstrate to the world they have a distinct community that is united in its desire to be independent, then that helps their cause.  If instead the world sees that Catalan public opinion is divided on the issue, that hurts their cause.

They only need to look at the last elections to see that.

[celedhring]

Since the Audiencia Nacional has already decreed and delivered an order of arrest for all members of the Catalan government and the head of the Mossos, what is the reason stopping Madrid for going in already to arrest them?

That's... not what's happened? There's not an outstanding arrest order for anybody, they are just under investigation and will be summoned by the Audiencia Nacional. *If* they refuse to cooperate, then the arrest warrant goes out.

[Drakken]

If the Catalans go the route of a UDI the matter is in part now up to world opinion.  If the Catalans can demonstrate to the world they have a distinct community that is united in its desire to be independent, then that helps their cause.  If instead the world sees that Catalan public opinion is divided on the issue, that hurts their cause.

They are divided - all polls show that the majority of Catalans do not want independence. That they stay home and stay silent because they fear repercussions does not mean they are not there.

All they have demonstrated is that a minority has hijacked both due processes, constitutional law, and international law for their own, minority-held objective of going for independence, come hell and high water. They are literally playing with the lives of Catalans in face of being obviously on the wrong side of both law and customs.

[Drakken]

Since the Audiencia Nacional has already decreed and delivered an order of arrest for all members of the Catalan government and the head of the Mossos, what is the reason stopping Madrid for going in already to arrest them?

That's... not what's happened? There's not an outstanding arrest order for anybody, they are just under investigation and will be summoned by the Audiencia Nacional. *If* they refuse to cooperate, then the arrest warrant goes out.

From your own quote:

The Spanish National Audience (a high court that deals with certain crimes against the state, terrorism, and drug cartels), has leveled sedition charges against the commander of the Catalan regional police and the leaders of the two main separatist organizations.

[Barrister]

If the Catalans go the route of a UDI the matter is in part now up to world opinion.  If the Catalans can demonstrate to the world they have a distinct community that is united in its desire to be independent, then that helps their cause.  If instead the world sees that Catalan public opinion is divided on the issue, that hurts their cause.

They are divided - all polls show that the majority of Catalans do not want independence. That they stay home and stay silent because they fear repercussions does not mean they are not there.

All they have demonstrated is that a minority has hijacked both due processes, constitutional law, and international law for their own, minority-held objective of going for independence, come hell and high water. They are literally playing with the lives of Catalans in face of being obviously on the wrong side of both law and customs.

But they also just held a referendum with 90% voting for independence.

[celedhring]

From your own quote:

The Spanish National Audience (a high court that deals with certain crimes against the state, terrorism, and drug cartels), has leveled sedition charges against the commander of the Catalan regional police and the leaders of the two main separatist organizations.

Yeah, and they have been summoned to the Audiencia for their depositions. There won't be any arrests at this stage unless they refuse to cooperate with justice. Arresting people is relatively exceptional in the Spanish justice system, unless the accused is expected to make a run for it. That won't happen with these people.

[celedhring]

But they also just held a referendum with 90% voting for independence.

Which was a total sham. There's a bunch of precincts that had over 100% turnout 

Actual elections show separatist parties topping at 48%. Which is a fucking lot and which has to be addressed somehow, but not to the point of imposing illegal independence on the rest of us.