Trains, Banks and Public/Private Ownership - Prev.Predict UK Gen.Election Result

Started by mongers, June 04, 2017, 05:18:02 PM

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What will be the size of Theresa May's majority in the Commons

150+ MPs
0 (0%)
101-149
0 (0%)
81-100
2 (5.9%)
51-80
4 (11.8%)
31-50
6 (17.6%)
16-30
5 (14.7%)
1-15
2 (5.9%)
Zero - (Even number of MPs)
1 (2.9%)
Minority conservative government
9 (26.5%)
Labour and other parties coalition
2 (5.9%)
Labour majority government
3 (8.8%)

Total Members Voted: 33

mongers

One upside of this result is I can have a go at quantifying the Taint.

Timmay voted in the same 80-100 majority option as I did, turns out the Tories are in a minority of 18, so that's 54 seats less than predicts, if we assume Timmay went for the categories mid-point of 90 seats.

So that's a 8.3% shift in the outcome because of the Taint, and he only made a handful of posts in the thread and just clicked a poll option; can you imagine the result shift if he'd fully deployed the Taint with its enthusiastic sloppy Labrador style of posts?    :hmm:

Powerful stuff. :ccr:
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

mongers

Quote from: Tamas on June 09, 2017, 09:02:12 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on June 09, 2017, 08:46:04 AM
Please, you Brits are experiencing national schizophrenia. No triumph of democracy in Britain of late, if anything Britain is serving as a good argument for unfree systems like they have in China.

It is true. The British have taken democracy, and used it to plunge their stable, prospering country into political chaos and utter economic unpredictability. International ridicule and dwindling influence is just the cherry on top. :(

What a stupid thing to say.
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

celedhring

Quote from: Valmy on June 09, 2017, 09:09:41 AM
That makes no sense. God I hate memes.

The DUP has historical ties with Unionist militias in the Ulster.

Valmy

Quote from: celedhring on June 09, 2017, 09:16:13 AM
Quote from: Valmy on June 09, 2017, 09:09:41 AM
That makes no sense. God I hate memes.

The DUP has historical ties with Unionist militias in the Ulster.

I got the 'OMG HYPOCRISY!!!!11' part. The meme just sucks.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Josquius

Quote from: Valmy on June 09, 2017, 09:09:41 AM
That makes no sense. God I hate memes.
What's not to get?
Corbyn spoke to Sinn Fein, the political wing of the IRA.
The Tories have a cosy working relationship with the DUP, who have some pretty heavy links to Loyalist terrorist groups.
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OttoVonBismarck

Unionist militias were not terrorists.

And Tamas is basically correct, to be frank. I honestly think Britain's recent troubles are more damning of democracy than even Donald Trump. With Trump, we have no choice but to expose our country's rule to the hands of the electorate once every four years, and there's always a chance a demagogue slips through. With Brexit, as I said at the time, you had a referendum that was not constitutionally required on an issue Parliament was more than competent to decide for the voters (it is Parliament's job to make decisions for voters), and then even the negotiations over that bad direct-democracy decision and its bad result has been fucked up even more by yet another election that did not even need to happen.

It's quite clear to me that Britain is showing the more say you give the people, the worse the outcome.

mongers

Quote from: Valmy on June 09, 2017, 09:09:41 AM
That makes no sense. God I hate memes.

I think it's alluding to the historic ties of some members of the DUP to loyalist terrorist groups.

Oh and the fact it was founded by this guy, someone who stocked the fires of the conflict in the first place:

"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

OttoVonBismarck

Separatists are scum, nothing is unjustified in fighting against separatism.

OttoVonBismarck

So right now the British election results are the top news story on Washington Post's website, ETA on how long a Trump incident comes in to knock it off.

Valmy

'When you hypocritically have to rely on EVIL TERRORISTS from Northern Ireland'

How does that picture represent that?
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Zanza

Can May even rely on all Tory MPs when it comes to Brexit? Ken Clarke comes to mind, but there may be a handful of other Remainers? And then you have the ultra-Brexiteers, that may not vote for any deal because they actually want to have a clean cut.

Josquius

Quote from: Valmy on June 09, 2017, 09:25:07 AM
'When you hypocritically have to rely on EVIL TERRORISTS from Northern Ireland'

How does that picture represent that?
Corbyn's expression.
He looks sceptical and very "oh really?"
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The Minsky Moment

Quote from: garbon on June 09, 2017, 05:30:19 AM
Was May ever publicly for a hard border in Ireland?

She is for it unless she's not, in which case she is against it, although being for it is an option as well.  She wants to do stuff, stuff that will happen once it's done.  She will be decisive and make decisions, and those decisions will be what is decided, decisively, once the decision is made.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

mongers

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 09, 2017, 09:50:53 AM
Quote from: garbon on June 09, 2017, 05:30:19 AM
Was May ever publicly for a hard border in Ireland?

She is for it unless she's not, in which case she is against it, although being for it is an option as well.  She wants to do stuff, stuff that will happen once it's done.  She will be decisive and make decisions, and those decisions will be what is decided, decisively, once the decision is made.

She only ever wanted a Strong and Stable border.  :rolleyes:
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Richard Hakluyt

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 09, 2017, 09:50:53 AM
Quote from: garbon on June 09, 2017, 05:30:19 AM
Was May ever publicly for a hard border in Ireland?

She is for it unless she's not, in which case she is against it, although being for it is an option as well.  She wants to do stuff, stuff that will happen once it's done.  She will be decisive and make decisions, and those decisions will be what is decided, decisively, once the decision is made.

Indeed, she intends to stay on as PM to provide "certainty"  :hmm:

She's 'aving a laff  :P