Élection présidentielle française

[viper37]

Hey! The practicing Catholics in France went for Fillon. They clearly believe in forgiveness

Then again, it's not like he committed any serious crime.  I mean, he could have been seen as friendly to gays and transsexuals.  That would be really bad, and might not be forgiven on this Earth.

[Drakken]

If only Henry had kids none of this mess would be happening.

The mess happened when Philip The Fair's grandsons failed to have sons. This is just something to laugh at.

More like none of Catherine de Medicis' inbred sons could manage to even try to father a (legitimate) son - and Marguerite was barren. Talk about a kick in the ovaries from God (or Fate) for Catherine, being forced to witness each of her dumbass sons die one by one, ineptly childless, being powerless to stop that Protestant peasant boar from Navarre coming ever closer to the throne.

At least, the direct Capetians tried to father sons; Louis X had a boy with Clemencia of Hungary, who was pregnant when he died, but the baby boy died within days after his baptism; Philippe V had a son, Louis-Philippe, which died in infancy during his reign; Charles IV married twice more after Blanche de Bourgogne had cuckolded him in the Tour de Nesle affair, but begot daughters - his Queen was 8-months pregnant when he died.

Philippe de Valois was a very close cousin, a baron of his own right, as Catholic as the rest of the bunch, and thus supported by almost all the Barons (and even received hommage from Edward III as Duke of Aquitaine). Henri de Navarre... well wasn't any of those.

[Drakken]

The funniest joke is - the National Assembly immediately after the Franco-Prussian War was one of the most Royalists ever in modern French history - even more than under Louis XVIII and his chambre introuvable. The majority of MNAs agreed that this newly proclaimed "Third Republic" was to to be temporary, and in time a King would be chosen. However, Legitimists and Orleanists could never agree on whose candidate to back.

This was to be the last time a Monarchy would be seriously considered in France, and they fumbled the ball right there. For four years, no one could agree on which system to adopt in the vacuum in France. In effect, for years the National Assembly remained an Assemblée Constituante to decide on the next Constitution.

In 1875, after furious debates back and forth for and against having a Monarchy, a personal Republic, or a parliamentary Republic, Henri Wallon managed to have an amendment passed by the backdoor, which proclaimed that the President of the Republic was to elected by the vote of the National Assembly and the Senate. It passed the first reading by... only one vote: 353 to 352.

[Duque de Bragança]

Information on France c. 2050? I don't believe I'm claiming to have facts about that. Are you familiar with the nature of time?

Whatever information that leads you to think that "a European Caliphate" like the one you describe is even remotely likely.

Look at all the votes the caliphal candidate got.

Lots of them, Mélenchon almost made it to the second round. 

[Ed Anger]

'Murica won.

http://www.eater.com/2016/12/13/13937520/five-guys-paris-expansion-champs-elysees

USA USA USA

[Grey Fox]

If only Henry had kids none of this mess would be happening.

The mess happened when Philip The Fair's grandsons failed to have sons. This is just something to laugh at.

I did not mean Henri IV but V.

[Zanza]

Daily chart
Imagining a French electoral college

If France were to use America's electoral system, Marine Le Pen might be on course for victory

FRANCE'S presidential election bears some superficial similarities to America's presidential campaign last year. Both contests pitted populists—Marine Le Pen in France and Donald Trump in the United States—against liberals with ties to high finance, who had held senior cabinet roles in the incumbent administrations (Emmanuel Macron in France and Hillary Clinton in America). In both elections, the establishment candidates won the popular vote by a narrow but decisive margin—three percentage points in Mr Macron's case, two in Ms Clinton's. However, a difference between the two countries' political systems caused the outcomes of the elections to diverge. America's electoral college handed the presidency to the nationalist candidate, whereas France's two-round method with the winner chosen by popular vote is expected to deliver victory to the globalist one by a comfortable margin.
Might Ms Le Pen be celebrating already today if France had copied the American electoral college? Her voters did tend to be rural and geographically dispersed, just like Mr Trump's. In contrast, Mr Macron's supporters concentrated in cities as Ms Clinton's did.

The American system can be translated to France with some straightforward arithmetic. Considering the 18 French regions—13 in metropolitan France and five overseas—as analogous to American states, each one gets two senators. Maintaining the American ratio of 4.35 members of the lower chamber for each of the 36 senators, the French House of Representatives would have 157 seats. Since each region is guaranteed at least one representative in the lower house, 139 seats would be allocated on the basis of population using the method of equal proportions. Finally, each region would be weighted in the electoral college by the total number of its representatives in both chambers.

The California of the French electoral college would be Île-de-France, the region that contains Paris. With just over 12m residents, 18% of the French population, it would cast 30 of the 193 electoral votes. The runner-up would be Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, with 20 electoral votes, followed by Hauts-de-France and New Aquitaine, with 16 each. Pulling up the rear would be the island of Corsica and the five overseas regions, all but one of which would get the minimum of three votes.

Just as in the United States, a French electoral college would have negated the liberal candidate's advantage in the popular vote. Although Mr Macron prevailed in the two biggest regions, Ms Le Pen came first in seven of the next nine. The result would be a stunning tie: the two leaders would have received 90 electoral votes each, with the leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon claiming ten (all from overseas regions) and the conservative François Fillon a paltry three.

Using these rules, no candidate would have won a majority of the electoral college. As a result, under the system implemented by the 12th amendment to the United States constitution in 1804, the House of Representatives would then pick the victor, with each region getting one vote regardless of its size. Assuming that each region supported the candidate that won it, the contender supported by the majority of regions would be named president.

With eight of the eighteen regions to her name, Ms Le Pen would be only two short of an absolute majority. Mr Macron would be behind with six (and likely also supported by Mr Fillon's one region). It would be up to supporters of Mr Mélenchon, who won three regions, to pick the next president: the future of Europe would rest on the radical left of France.

[CountDeMoney]

Yikes

Gotta find the article--I think it was the NYT--of what the presidential election would've looked like if we had the French system, neat graphics too

[Duque de Bragança]

Only electoral colleges in France are for the Paris mayor election and the Senate.
Weird results at times.

[Grallon]

So who won the last debate?  Marine or that puppet satisfied of his strings Macron?  Well no matter - elect Macron now and in 5 years time she will get in by a landslide.


G.

[Liep]

Urban vs. Rural but with the EU farm subsidies gloriously visible!

[Josquius]

So as per elsewhere in the world its the small towns that feel so left out they decided to vote to make their situation even worse.

[Solmyr]

[derspiess]

Wait -- OMG was Macron making the alt right nazi fascist sign???

[Valmy]

Wait -- OMG was Macron making the alt right nazi fascist sign???

Wise strategy. Erode her voting base.