Élection présidentielle française

[Josquius]

My theory :many voted for the macron party in part out of a wish to support the underdog and ensure he has some support.
That he won so many first round votes will make many people vote different in the second.

[Zanza]

Is this more of a political earthquake than our general election result*?




* Perhaps best described as a bloody nose inflicted on an arrogant politician.

Your election result was a huge gain for both established parties, whereas in France the PS is all but wiped out and the Republicans are severely weakened. So if Macron really wins a landslide not seen since De Gaulle it can have profound effects on the Fifth Republic. It's party landscape is shattered.

[Duque de Bragança]

My theory :many voted for the macron party in part out of a wish to support the underdog and ensure he has some support.
That he won so many first round votes will make many people vote different in the second.

Macron's party, media darling, underdog?  I know he presented himself as revolutionary, with his own kind of populism (not right wing nor left wing) but come on.
Even very bourgeois areas in West Paris are pro-Macron, as if the conservatives there were some kind of leftists.   

[Zanza]

It's an interesting strategy though: running as a centrist "revolutionary" candidate with a considerable establishment pedigree that can still claim not to be part of either of the two establishment parties. I can see that having appeal elsewhere, e.g. Austria or Germany.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Is this more of a political earthquake than our general election result*?




* Perhaps best described as a bloody nose inflicted on an arrogant politician.

Your election result was a huge gain for both established parties, whereas in France the PS is all but wiped out and the Republicans are severely weakened. So if Macron really wins a landslide not seen since De Gaulle it can have profound effects on the Fifth Republic. It's party landscape is shattered.

maybe, maybe not. Much will depend on what he does and how he does it. How many general strikes of the teachers (to name one) is will to live with?

[Valmy]

More than 50 % of abstention, the Fifth republic's record, not just after noon, means a not so great support for Macron after all, who was only elected thanks to the FN.

That's stupid. If you do not support Macron, not voting is almost as good as vote for him.

If he was only elected because of the FN who was the real winner? Is three elections where you get the most votes not enough? Do you want four or five to determine the true winner? Call me old fashioned but I thought getting the most votes meant you were elected because you had the most support.

[Valmy]

maybe, maybe not. Much will depend on what he does and how he does it. How many general strikes of the teachers (to name one) is will to live with?

Well to be fair if you live in France you will have to be willing to live with several.

[Oexmelin]

If he was only elected because of the FN who was the real winner? Is three elections where you get the most votes not enough? Do you want four or five to determine the true winner? Call me old fashioned but I thought getting the most votes meant you were elected because you had the most support.

It has nothing to do with being old fashioned, and everything to do with diverging conception of voting, its significance, and the most appropriate mechanic required to obtain what is considered a legitimate democratic outcome. Case in point: American electoral college.

[Valmy]

If he was only elected because of the FN who was the real winner? Is three elections where you get the most votes not enough? Do you want four or five to determine the true winner? Call me old fashioned but I thought getting the most votes meant you were elected because you had the most support.

It has nothing to do with being old fashioned, and everything to do with diverging conception of voting, its significance, and the most appropriate mechanic required to obtain what is considered a legitimate democratic outcome. Case in point: American electoral college.

Yes. But in two of those elections all the other parties were included and Macron's party got the most votes. That seems like it had more to do than just the FN.

[Oexmelin]

What Duque means, is that the presence of the FN made Macron the default choice for many Frenchmen, more out of desire to keep the FN out, than out of a true belief in Macron's policy. It brought Macron to the presidency, and Macron's presidency in turn gave an incentive to give him a National Assembly with which he could work, hence the votes for his hastily assembled party. The lesser of many evils, compounded.

[Valmy]

Politics and government are usually about the lesser evil. Otherwise the 'do goodstuff party' would always win. Also why it is easy to demonize politicians.

[Duque de Bragança]

Is this more of a political earthquake than our general election result*?




* Perhaps best described as a bloody nose inflicted on an arrogant politician.

Your election result was a huge gain for both established parties, whereas in France the PS is all but wiped out and the Republicans are severely weakened. So if Macron really wins a landslide not seen since De Gaulle it can have profound effects on the Fifth Republic. It's party landscape is shattered.

maybe, maybe not. Much will depend on what he does and how he does it. How many general strikes of the teachers (to name one) is will to live with?

Teachers should be pleased with him for now since he has promised to reverse a stupid reform i.e  anti humanities (Latin and Ancient Greek) and anti foreign languages (German and bilingual classes) since those are elitist. There is little political capital to spend to keep this promise, and it will benefit his popularity. Of course, this only one of many...

[Zanza]

I read that he'll make the state of emergency measures that limit the human right protections of all French permanent in an ordinary law. 

Let's hope that his probable huge majority does not make him too authoritarian. That risk exists with every poltician, especially one that has virtually no checks and balances. He holds a lot of promise, especially in European policy, but let's see how he actually does once the national assembly is elected.

[Valmy]

Oh dear. Not a good way to start Macron. Hopefully that is untrue.

Or maybe I just do not understand what exactly that means? What is 'ordinary law'? And what would be the hypothetical purpose of doing so?

[Zanza]

Think of it as a French Patriot Act.