First big "holy shit" moment of the Trump presidency?

Started by Jacob, March 22, 2017, 03:32:16 PM

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What's the next big gamechanger for the Trump administration.

The US will a nice big bloody expensive war somewhere high profile.
3 (10.3%)
Some kind of Erdoganist/ Putinesque mangling of institutions, breaking democratic norms in permanent way.
2 (6.9%)
Significant economic crisis.
1 (3.4%)
Fumbling of a deadly natural disaster or health emergency on a national scale.
3 (10.3%)
Permanent major shift in international alignment - i.e. US withdrawing from the UN, seriously undermining or disbanding NATO et. al.
2 (6.9%)
Clear and incontrovertible proof of the Russian direct influence on Trump and senior administration.
6 (20.7%)
Large scale civil unrest - riots etc.
0 (0%)
A face turn - Trump does something competent that makes many of his critics accept that he's up to the job after all.
2 (6.9%)
Lurid personal scandal - clear evidence of Trump involved in incest, f. ex., or evidence of major corruption and abuse of power that makes even many of his supporters think he's gone too far.
1 (3.4%)
Breakdown of GOP discipline with the House and/or Senate openly hostile to and actively obstructing and investigating the Trump administration.
3 (10.3%)
A significant strike against the US, causing a major "rally around the president" effect.
0 (0%)
Something else (feel free to elaborate in a post)
0 (0%)
There won't be one. This is the new normal and the US will trundle along as is until another election changes the landscape.
6 (20.7%)

Total Members Voted: 28

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mongers

#30
April 13, 2017, 07:39:35 PM
Talking with my decidedly elderly mother earlier, she unprompted said today reminded her of the atmosphere before the last war. I went back and asked her to clarify, she didn't mean generally the 1930s, but the last few weeks of July/August 1939 before the September 3rd declaration of war.

Now I'm worried.   <_<

"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Grinning_Colossus

#31
April 13, 2017, 07:55:22 PM
Mud season in Ukraine ends in about a month...
Quis futuit ipsos fututores?

Zoupa

#32
April 13, 2017, 10:28:10 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on April 13, 2017, 07:55:22 PM
Mud season in Ukraine ends in about a month...

Still too soon. Russia won't be ready until at least spring 2019.

Razgovory

#33
April 14, 2017, 01:44:23 AM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on April 13, 2017, 07:55:22 PM
Mud season in Ukraine ends in about a month...

It would be the first time someone invaded Russia to conquer a video cassette.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

citizen k

#34
April 14, 2017, 01:56:56 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on April 14, 2017, 01:44:23 AM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on April 13, 2017, 07:55:22 PM
Mud season in Ukraine ends in about a month...

It would be the first time someone invaded Russia to conquer a video cassette.

Get them while they're hot.



Berkut

#35
April 14, 2017, 09:41:34 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on April 13, 2017, 07:17:20 PM
I gotta wonder if Putin might be having a "holy shit, what have I done" moment these days.  :P

Of course not. Why would he?

He didn't back Trump because he thought Trump was his good buddy, he backed Trump because he knows Trump is a moron.

Moron don't always act in the way you like, but you can be confident they will act in a manner that harms their country in the long run, and that is the goal.
"If you think this has a happy ending, then you haven't been paying attention."

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Jacob

#36
April 14, 2017, 11:15:09 AM
BTW, if we see some sort of sustained fighting involving US forces and North Korean ones, that'd be a "holy shit" moment as per the OP.

Berkut

#37
April 14, 2017, 11:36:39 AM
I am still not convinced that even two people as fucked up and ignorant as Trump and Kim would be stupid enough to start a war that cannot possibly make any sense for either country.

But then I realize that the other thing I am pretty sure of these days is that I am a naive fool. So there is that.
"If you think this has a happy ending, then you haven't been paying attention."

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CountDeMoney

#38
April 14, 2017, 12:01:19 PM
Quote from: Berkut on April 14, 2017, 11:36:39 AM
I am still not convinced that even two people as fucked up and ignorant as Trump and Kim would be stupid enough to start a war that cannot possibly make any sense for either country.

You better be convinced.  Lesser wars were started by much more smarter people accidentally.

QuoteBut then I realize that the other thing I am pretty sure of these days is that I am a naive fool. So there is that.

It's not naïveté; it's the "this sort of thing only happens to others" rationalization, which comes with dealing with something so unfamiliar, so counter to what you know and what you've known.  Perfectly understandable.  Thing is, it's also all the more frightening because people willfully, knowingly and voluntarily chose the singularly most unqualified, uneducated and unstable person to ever hold the office.

But hey:  cunts, right?

Caliga

#39
April 14, 2017, 12:03:55 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 14, 2017, 12:01:19 PM
But hey:  cunts, right?
You're hired.
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Jacob

#41
April 14, 2017, 02:12:18 PM
Say Kim does some nuclear testing, because he can't back down.

Then Trump orders a little cruise missile strike because he can't back down either. Noting too bad, just a little hello a la Syria.

Then Kim fires back. Not all out, like trying to level Seoul, but he has to do something because otherwise he looks too weak internally. Maybe he strikes back at a nearby carrier group.

Maybe the dice come up high enough that they sink a destroyer or hit a carrier hard enough that it hurts - and makes the US look less than invulnerable.

Is there any way that that gets deescalated?

garbon

#42
April 14, 2017, 02:25:35 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 14, 2017, 02:12:18 PM
Say Kim does some nuclear testing, because he can't back down.

Then Trump orders a little cruise missile strike because he can't back down either. Noting too bad, just a little hello a la Syria.

Then Kim fires back. Not all out, like trying to level Seoul, but he has to do something because otherwise he looks too weak internally. Maybe he strikes back at a nearby carrier group.

Maybe the dice come up high enough that they sink a destroyer or hit a carrier hard enough that it hurts - and makes the US look less than invulnerable.

Is there any way that that gets deescalated?

China sends in those ground forces?
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Jacob

#43
April 14, 2017, 02:30:52 PM
Doesn't sound like a deescalation, but it may be the most sensible course of action.

garbon

#44
April 14, 2017, 02:34:58 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 14, 2017, 02:30:52 PM
Doesn't sound like a deescalation, but it may be the most sensible course of action.

Well hopefully Trump then backs up.
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.
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