Whither Obamacare?

[CountDeMoney]

Whew.  For a moment, I was worried.

HHS Secretary Price: CBO Report Numbers Are 'Not Believable'
ByMatt Shuham
Published March 13, 2017

The Secretary of Health and Human Services characterized as "not believable" a Congressional Budget Office report that estimated 14 million people would lose health coverage through 2018 under the House GOP's proposed health care bill.

HHS Secretary Tom Price said the CBO report "ignored completely the other legislative activities that we'll be putting into place that will make certain that we have an insurance market that actually works," in addition to the American Health Care Act, which Republicans have described as "phase one" of health care reform.

"So we disagree strenuously with the report that was put out. We believe that our plan will cover more individuals at a lower cost and give them the choices they want for the coverage that they want for themselves and their families, not that the government forces them to buy," he told reporters outside the White House.

One reporter asked if he was implying the CBO was wrong in their estimates. Price responded that, while he hadn't yet read the report, its estimates were "virtually impossible."

"The fact of the matter is, if you look at that, it's virtually impossible to have that number occur. We are not certain – again, we haven't been able to read the report –"

"The CBO is wrong?" the reporter asked again.

"Just look at the numbers," Price replied. "There are 8 million people, 8, 9 million people who are on the exchange currently. I'm not sure how they're going to get to 14 million people uninsured if that's what they say, with only 8 million people on the exchange. There are individuals I guess that they assume that are on Medicaid who aren't paying anything in the Medicaid system who are going to not take the Medicaid policy just because the mandate ended, or something happened. It's just not believable is what we would suggest. We'll look at the numbers and see."

In its report, the CBO estimates that, of the 14 million fewer people it estimates would have insurance by 2018, "[t]hat increase would consist of about 6 million fewer people with coverage obtained in the nongroup market, roughly 5 million fewer people with coverage under Medicaid, and about 2 million fewer people with employment-based coverage."

The CBO noted that some who are eligible for Medicaid still face penalties for not being covered by an insurance plan.

"Under current law, the penalties associated with the individual mandate apply to some Medicaid-eligible adults and children. (For example, the penalties apply to single individuals with income above about 90 percent of the federal poverty guidelines, also known as the federal poverty level, or FPL)," the report read. "CBO estimates that, without those penalties, fewer people would enroll in Medicaid, including some who are not subject to the penalties but might think they are."

"Some people might be uncertain about what circumstances trigger the penalty and others might be uncertain about their annual income," it continues. "The estimated lower enrollment would result in less spending for the program. Those effects on enrollment and spending would continue throughout the 2017-2026 period."

[garbon]

I like the constant refrain of 'oh but you just aren't considering all the other things we're going to pass.' If you are going to pass them, why not pass them as part of this and have it all managed? Is it because they perhaps lack the political capital to pass those other aspects?

[CountDeMoney]

"But you're not counting the $157 billion in tax cuts for household incomes over $1 million." 

[viper37]

I like the constant refrain of 'oh but you just aren't considering all the other things we're going to pass.' If you are going to pass them, why not pass them as part of this and have it all managed? Is it because they perhaps lack the political capital to pass those other aspects?

In my opinion, when a politician tells something like that (outside of an emergency situation, which you are not), it's because they have no intention to deliver.

[CountDeMoney]

Whew, a 2nd opinion.

Mulvaney on CBO: 'I don't believe the facts are correct'
By Louis Nelson
Politico
03/14/17
09:11 AM EDT

Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney said Tuesday that the Congressional Budget Office's assessment that millions would lose health insurance under the Republican plan to repeal and replace Obamacare is wrong and should be taken with a hefty grain of salt.

"I don't believe the facts are correct," Mulvaney said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" when asked for his take on the CBO report. "I'm not just saying that because it looks bad for my political position. I'm say that based upon a track record of the CBO being wrong before and we believe the CBO is wrong now."

The facts that Mulvaney said are wrong were released Monday afternoon by the CBO in the form of a report outlining the office's prediction that the GOP-backed American Health Care Act would cause 24 million Americans to lose their health insurance. That prediction added fuel to the legislation's already hefty opposition, which includes not only Democrats but also a handful Republicans concerned that about its cuts to Medicaid.

But the CBO report should not be trusted, Mulvaney said, in no small part because it has been wrong in the past on health care. With a snowy Washington backdrop behind him, Mulvaney joked at the top of his interview that he was "happy to be here on a beautiful, warm, sunny day according to the Congressional Budget Office."

As an example of the CBO's inability to forecast the insurance market, Mulvaney noted that it had missed badly on Obamacare enrollment predictions for this year, suggesting in a report released three years ago that 24 million people would use the law's exchanges to purchase healthcare. In reality, Mulvaney said, that number is closer to 11.5 million.

"It's really, really hard to do this. We don't even try to do this at the OMB. That's how difficult it is," Mulvaney said. "CBO: Good at counting money, in and out, numbers, taxes, policies and so forth. Not so sure that they're the best folks to count insurance coverage."

[CountDeMoney]

GOP Recommends Americans Set Aside Income From One Of Their Jobs To Pay For Healthcare Under New Bill


WASHINGTON—In an effort to address concerns about the affordability of coverage, Republican congressional officials advised Americans Monday to set aside the income from one of their jobs to pay for healthcare costs under the newly introduced American Health Care Act. "Under this bill, you would simply set up a separate savings account for the total earnings from one of your jobs, which will ensure that you can comfortably cover your healthcare expenses each month," said House Speaker Paul Ryan, adding that the GOP's proposed Affordable Care Act replacement would keep healthcare costs for the average American from exceeding the entire salary of one full-time job. "If you budget things correctly, you'll have plenty of money left over from your other job or jobs to spend on food, rent, and any other personal expenses. In some cases, healthcare will even be low-priced enough to afford using only the income from a part-time side job on the weekends. The important thing here is that this legislation will allow Americans—not the federal government—to decide for themselves what kind of healthcare they want and how many jobs they choose to have in order to pay for it." Ryan also recommended that in order to be prepared for the added costs of a sudden medical emergency, Americans should create a dedicated savings fund using the money from at least two of the mortgages on their homes.

[celedhring]

Suppose that's from a parody site? Although GOP is running Poe's law very close as of late.

[CountDeMoney]

Americans have a right not to have health insurance.

[derspiess]

Americans have a right not to have health insurance.

[jimmy olsen]

I like the constant refrain of 'oh but you just aren't considering all the other things we're going to pass.' If you are going to pass them, why not pass them as part of this and have it all managed? Is it because they perhaps lack the political capital to pass those other aspects?

They can't pass them through reconciliation I believe.

[The Larch]

Suppose that's from a parody site? Although GOP is running Poe's law very close as of late.

Onion.

[Fate]

I like the constant refrain of 'oh but you just aren't considering all the other things we're going to pass.' If you are going to pass them, why not pass them as part of this and have it all managed? Is it because they perhaps lack the political capital to pass those other aspects?

What Tim said. AHCA is carefully tailored to be passable with 51 votes in the Senate via reconciliation rules. Everything else in the conservative grab bag of health care ideas is subject to filibuster. So no competition across state lines or malpractice reform unless all Republicans and 8 Dem senators sign on. But thanks to Senator Byrd's senate rules we can gut Medicaid and Obamacare exchanges with 50 Senators and Mike Pence because it lowers the deficit.

[CountDeMoney]

Americans have a right not to have health insurance.

I hope you and your family exercise that right to the fullest. 

[Grey Fox]

There's a new "There will be much sturm und drang, but ultimately no concrete action will be taken. It'll still be Obamacare." vote. Who took the plunge?

[Fate]

The poll needs more options.

They will repeal and replace with something that decreases coverage and increases costs.