Social Media, the Filter Bubble and Us

[CountDeMoney]

More sense than solely relying on polls.

Just imagine yourself involved in a fight on an ancient or medieval battlefield, a lot of confusion and shouting all about, but doesn't a point come when you can sense how the battle is going and act accordingly?

But that's just it, a misplaced analogy. Ears to the ground in Maryland/PA won't tell you what is going to happen across an entire nation. The comparison, if apt, would be that you think the one battle you are in is predictive of all battles that will be fought in an entire campaign.

Unfortunately, the American disdain for immigrants, minorities and women does stretch across the entire nation-- more so in some areas than others, but still a very good predictor.

[Malthus]

More sense than solely relying on polls.

Just imagine yourself involved in a fight on an ancient or medieval battlefield, a lot of confusion and shouting all about, but doesn't a point come when you can sense how the battle is going and act accordingly?

As garbon has pointed out, that analogy doesn't work well. A medieval battlefield was a rather restricted time and place. The better military analogy is with a whole military "campaign" spread out over a vast geographical expanse. To judge how a "campaign" is going you need to hear the reports of what happened on a lot of different "battlefields" you have no personal experience with.

To extend the analogy - in your particular battlefield you may feel the tide going against you, but suddenly a bunch of hard-riding heralds known as "pollsters" show up at your headquarters and tell you that other battles happening elsewhere are going in your favor - as they have personally witnessed. Why is it reasonable to trust your own particular experience of a single time and place over their first-hand reports?

[DGuller]

To be Seedy's advocate, you can sort of get an idea from a longitudinal analysis of people you know. 

If you know people for some time, and those people who previously did not exhibit strong GOP tendencies suddenly start mindlessly reciting all the alt-right talking points, and you don't observe the same kind of drift the other way, you can get a sense of the winds that way.  And it wasn't much of a surprise that the Alabama part of Pennsylvania would be the tipping point, so what was happening on the ground there would be the decider. 

Yes, the election was close, and could've gone to Clinton still with all this still being true, but the point is that it was a lot closer than what the polls were predicting in any case.

[Tamas]

I could have predicted Leave winning Brexit, by how I am living in an area that is just very well off in general, and how the only posters and signs I could see on my commute were Leave ones. Nobody for Remain cared enough around here to actually put in an effort.

[dps]

This is a load of BS. The newspapers of old (and now) were also set on one particular world view and agenda. And those who did not read news before Facebook were reliant on their social circle, and the pub, to get news. If you think that was any better than "eco chambers" it has been YOU who have been confined to a bubble your whole life.

I think we all are to some degree. Basically, the more you were surprised Trump won, the more in a bubble you were. Me included. I mean, I knew enough to be expecting the unexpected, but not enough to actually not be surprised by the result.

Were there any Trump supporters here, among Americans who were eligible to vote?  I don't remember anyone saying that they were going to vote for Trump.  Even the 2 conservatives among our regular American posters (derspiess and myself) voted for 3rd party candidates.

[CountDeMoney]

Even the 2 conservatives among our regular American posters (derspiess and myself) voted for 3rd party candidates.

lol

[Admiral Yi]

Were there any Trump supporters here, among Americans who were eligible to vote?  I don't remember anyone saying that they were going to vote for Trump.  Even the 2 conservatives among our regular American posters (derspiess and myself) voted for 3rd party candidates.

Seeb could have citizenship by now.  Lettuce seems to like Trump.

[DGuller]

I imagine that voting for Trump is not something that you would be open about on a forum like that, unless you're comfortable in the village idiot role.  Not because we're an echo chamber, but because we have standards for discourse that we all hold each other to, and pro-Trump arguments can't survive first contact with such an environment.  I imagine that at least a couple of regular Languish posters did vote from Trump, but either never said anything publicly to that effect, or pretended to vote for someone else.

[garbon]

To be Seedy's advocate, you can sort of get an idea from a longitudinal analysis of people you know. 

If you know people for some time, and those people who previously did not exhibit strong GOP tendencies suddenly start mindlessly reciting all the alt-right talking points, and you don't observe the same kind of drift the other way, you can get a sense of the winds that way.  And it wasn't much of a surprise that the Alabama part of Pennsylvania would be the tipping point, so what was happening on the ground there would be the decider. 

Yes, the election was close, and could've gone to Clinton still with all this still being true, but the point is that it was a lot closer than what the polls were predicting in any case.

On flip side all of the Republicans in my family went hard left this election. Apart from one who has been warned to be on good behaviour at Christmas.

[Admiral Yi]

I imagine that voting for Trump is not something that you would be open about on a forum like that, unless you're comfortable in the village idiot role.  Not because we're an echo chamber, but because we have standards for discourse that we all hold each other to, and pro-Trump arguments can't survive first contact with such an environment.  I imagine that at least a couple of regular Languish posters did vote from Trump, but either never said anything publicly to that effect, or pretended to vote for someone else.

That's a slightly more pleasant way of calling Speesh a liar than Seedy's way, but not much.

[LaCroix]

I imagine that voting for Trump is not something that you would be open about on a forum like that, unless you're comfortable in the village idiot role.  Not because we're an echo chamber, but because we have standards for discourse that we all hold each other to, and pro-Trump arguments can't survive first contact with such an environment.  I imagine that at least a couple of regular Languish posters did vote from Trump, but either never said anything publicly to that effect, or pretended to vote for someone else.

disagree on the echo chamber. there were sometimes echo chambers re: hillary.

[MadImmortalMan]

To be Seedy's advocate, you can sort of get an idea from a longitudinal analysis of people you know. 

If you know people for some time, and those people who previously did not exhibit strong GOP tendencies suddenly start mindlessly reciting all the alt-right talking points, and you don't observe the same kind of drift the other way, you can get a sense of the winds that way.

This same thing happened in 1980. Remember those SNL skits about aliens taking over peoples' brains and making them into Reagan supporters?
It's not really new.

[Valmy]

I imagine that voting for Trump is not something that you would be open about on a forum like that, unless you're comfortable in the village idiot role.  Not because we're an echo chamber, but because we have standards for discourse that we all hold each other to, and pro-Trump arguments can't survive first contact with such an environment.  I imagine that at least a couple of regular Languish posters did vote from Trump, but either never said anything publicly to that effect, or pretended to vote for someone else.

disagree on the echo chamber. there were sometimes echo chambers re: hillary.

I don't know man. We were all pretty wracked by nerves the whole time. I never got the feeling that Hillary was going to easily win this thing based on what Languish was saying...well except for a few minutes after the Democratic convention.

[derspiess]

I'd tell you guys if I had voted Trump. If Ohio had looked close I probably would have.

Seedy and Blueberry Boy think I voted for him? Cool-- I don't care.

[Admiral Yi]

I'd tell you guys if I had voted Trump. If Ohio had looked close I probably would have.

Seedy and Blueberry Boy think I voted for him? Cool-- I don't care.

I got your back on this one, but I gotta say that's some bass ackward thinking Bubba.  Vote for Trump if it's close???