What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[dps]

I think solar is on the brink of a major breakthrough

Yeah, I've read that recently.

If you consider an article I read in the Weekly Reader back in 2nd grade in 1970 to be recent.

[Eddie Teach]

I'm pretty sure solar has increased a lot since 1970.

[alfred russel]

For a very apt comparison (in my opinion at least). My girlfriend is very environmentally conscious. She recently started carrying around metal straws so she doesn't use plastic ones, is talking about starting to carry other silverware, and wants us to get worms to compost in our apartment. I'm cool with all of that. I told her that I'll use a metal straw and carry it around if she gets one for me.

I also take out the trash, and today took out two large trash bags. It is great to use one less straw every day or so, but the volume of trash we generate is obscene and I don't see a practical way to make it stop.

That's an awful comparison.  The straw is not Canada.  You are Canada.

I'll bet if you imposed a $50/pound garbage fee on yourself you'd find a way to cut down in a jiffy.

You don't understand. If I impose a $50/pound garbage fee on myself, I slash down the garbage I produce and the world has less garbage going into landfills.

If Canada imposes a $50/barrel of oil fee on itself, it will use less oil. The global price of oil will fall as demand falls. Lets say it moves from $50 / barrel to $49.50 / barrel. That of course won't keep us from using up the major oil fields in the world that produce for a lot less than that. What happens is that instead of selling to Canadian, oil producers sell to customers that were previously priced out of the market. Some fossil fuel producers at the margins may cease production, but for the most part use will just shift out of Canada, and instead of the state oil company of Saudi Arabia turning a $110 billion profit next year it will turn a $105 billion profit.

What would be an effective policy is if Canada announced that the fossil fuels currently in its territory would not be extracted and the captured carbon permanently sequestered below ground--that of course isn't realistic. It isn't realistic because there is far too much money to be made in fossil fuel production, which is precisely because it is such a cheap form of energy (allowing outsized profits). But that cheaper production cost is ultimately why unilateral action on the demand side of fossil fuels is doomed to fail--there is going to be demand for energy that is cheaper than alternative sources.

[alfred russel]

I think solar is on the brink of a major breakthrough

Yeah, I've read that recently.

If you consider an article I read in the Weekly Reader back in 2nd grade in 1970 to be recent.

I think you are wrong--the company I work for is going big into solar for a lot of its production facilities. Obviously there is a marketing benefit to doing so, which is what I thought was driving the decision. But the financial models I saw actually showed that it would reduce costs in the long term and was the right decision from a cost efficiency perspective--at first I thought the marketing guys just strong armed some finance guys into building models that supported their marketing initiatives, but with a little research it turned out that the models were accurate. And these are in places without government subsidies for solar.

[dps]

I think solar is on the brink of a major breakthrough

Yeah, I've read that recently.

If you consider an article I read in the Weekly Reader back in 2nd grade in 1970 to be recent.

I think you are wrong--the company I work for is going big into solar for a lot of its production facilities. Obviously there is a marketing benefit to doing so, which is what I thought was driving the decision. But the financial models I saw actually showed that it would reduce costs in the long term and was the right decision from a cost efficiency perspective--at first I thought the marketing guys just strong armed some finance guys into building models that supported their marketing initiatives, but with a little research it turned out that the models were accurate. And these are in places without government subsidies for solar.

Oh, yeah, I don't doubt that there have been advances in the technology, and that it's become more economically feasible.  Obviously I was being a bit snarky in my previous post (at least, I hope it was obvious).  But in all seriousness, I don't see any reason to think that there will ever be a big breakthrough, just incremental improvement.

[Valmy]

But in all seriousness, I don't see any reason to think that there will ever be a big breakthrough, just incremental improvement.

What do you consider incrementals vs a breakthrough? I mean the amount of PV installed is going up pretty dramatically.

[alfred russel]

Oh, yeah, I don't doubt that there have been advances in the technology, and that it's become more economically feasible.  Obviously I was being a bit snarky in my previous post (at least, I hope it was obvious).  But in all seriousness, I don't see any reason to think that there will ever be a big breakthrough, just incremental improvement.

What I meant for a big breakthrough is that it becomes cheaper than power off the conventional grid, after adjusting for installation costs.

For larger businesses we already are there in some markets.

[Syt]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/us/politics/roger-stone-sentencing.html?referringSource=articleShare

Justice Dept. to Seek Shorter Sentence for Roger Stone, Overruling Its Prosecutors

President Trump had complained that the recommendation of seven to nine years in prison for his former adviser and longtime friend was a "miscarriage of justice."

[dps]

Oh, yeah, I don't doubt that there have been advances in the technology, and that it's become more economically feasible.  Obviously I was being a bit snarky in my previous post (at least, I hope it was obvious).  But in all seriousness, I don't see any reason to think that there will ever be a big breakthrough, just incremental improvement.

What I meant for a big breakthrough is that it becomes cheaper than power off the conventional grid, after adjusting for installation costs.

For larger businesses we already are there in some markets.

A breakthrough for me would be when it gets cheap enough that the owner of a single-family home can convert their house to solar for no more that the cost of replacing all of their curtains.

[crazy canuck]

Oh, yeah, I don't doubt that there have been advances in the technology, and that it's become more economically feasible.  Obviously I was being a bit snarky in my previous post (at least, I hope it was obvious).  But in all seriousness, I don't see any reason to think that there will ever be a big breakthrough, just incremental improvement.

What I meant for a big breakthrough is that it becomes cheaper than power off the conventional grid, after adjusting for installation costs.

For larger businesses we already are there in some markets.

A breakthrough for me would be when it gets cheap enough that the owner of a single-family home can convert their house to solar for no more that the cost of replacing all of their curtains.

Why would it need to be cheaper than the cost of installing the fossil fuel alternative?  Especially when the operating costs or so much lower.

[viper37]

DOJ is set to reduce Roger Stone's sentence, against the advice of its lawyers.
Donald Trump just complained the sentence was too harsh.

Abuse of power?  Political interference in justice?  Nah.  Nothing to see.  Long live King Donald!

[The Minsky Moment]

The DOJ doesn't get to decide what the sentence will be.  They can only make a recommendation.  The judge has the discretion and can choose to ignore the sentencing letters, or consider them for whatever she thinks they are worth.

[Barrister]

The DOJ doesn't get to decide what the sentence will be.  They can only make a recommendation.  The judge has the discretion and can choose to ignore the sentencing letters, or consider them for whatever she thinks they are worth.

While true, when was the last time you saw a judge jump what the prosecution was asking for?

[dps]

Oh, yeah, I don't doubt that there have been advances in the technology, and that it's become more economically feasible.  Obviously I was being a bit snarky in my previous post (at least, I hope it was obvious).  But in all seriousness, I don't see any reason to think that there will ever be a big breakthrough, just incremental improvement.

What I meant for a big breakthrough is that it becomes cheaper than power off the conventional grid, after adjusting for installation costs.

For larger businesses we already are there in some markets.

A breakthrough for me would be when it gets cheap enough that the owner of a single-family home can convert their house to solar for no more that the cost of replacing all of their curtains.

Why would it need to be cheaper than the cost of installing the fossil fuel alternative?  Especially when the operating costs or so much lower.

The cost of installing the fossil fuel alternative is paying a hook-up fee to the electric company, and if you already own the home, you've already done that, possibly many years ago. 

[The Minsky Moment]

The DOJ doesn't get to decide what the sentence will be.  They can only make a recommendation.  The judge has the discretion and can choose to ignore the sentencing letters, or consider them for whatever she thinks they are worth.

While true, when was the last time you saw a judge jump what the prosecution was asking for?

It's rare but it can happen. It's mostly rare because recommendations center around the guidelines and the more common perception is that the guidelines are too stiff. It's also rare because the Govt will often put in a letter that doesn't make a numerical recommendation at all, potentially implying but not actually saying they don't dispute Defendant's letter.  In fact my understanding is that the new letter is akin to this, as it does not make a numerical recommendation but does imply the earlier one was too high,

In any event, this is a unique situation - you've got a recommendation that is then withdrawn in an opaque way without clear justification and DOJ lawyers making noisy withdrawals all over the place.  It's not like Judge Jackson can't figure out what's going on.  Judges do read newspapers.