What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[jimmy olsen]

Trump had 46% and eeked out a win by just a few ten thousand votes in key states. That's how much he needs to win. If he just gets 45% he loses.

Hence the conflict within the Democrats: whether one should campaign narrowly to get those tens of thousands of votes, or broadly to motivate the troops.

Don't think it's really possible to microtarget like that. If the Dem candidate wins back those tens of thousands of votes, they'll win tens of thousands of extra votes in every state and it will be seen in the national vote statistics as a swing of .2% or whatever.

[Neil]

Trump had 46% and eeked out a win by just a few ten thousand votes in key states. That's how much he needs to win. If he just gets 45% he loses.

Hence the conflict within the Democrats: whether one should campaign narrowly to get those tens of thousands of votes, or broadly to motivate the troops.

Don't think it's really possible to microtarget like that. If the Dem candidate wins back those tens of thousands of votes, they'll win tens of thousands of extra votes in every state and it will be seen in the national vote statistics as a swing of .2% or whatever.

It's not really microtargeting though.  You can still campaign broadly while putting things prominently on your plank to ease the problems facing the Rust Belt.  A lot of the things that most candidates say are carefully considered to send a particular message.

[Maximus]

If the economy turns south his support will drop like a stone.

I believe this is what Pelosi is betting on.

[Neil]

I've often been a fan of the maxim that a President's ability to effect the economy in the short term is pretty limited, but Trump seems to want to prove me wrong.

[Barrister]

Neil???!?!?!

You just missed Savonarola - he's in town and we went out yesterday night!

[Solmyr]

I wish I could believe that, Beeb, but I think Trump's basic support will endure in the low 40s/high 30s no matter what the economy looks like.

That's true of every President.  There's 30-some percent of the electorate that's going to support a Republican President no matter what, and another 30-some percent that will support a Democratic President no matter what.   What matters politically is the 30 or so percent in between.

Of course, with the US electoral college system, 30-some percent support is all you need to get elected.

Trump had 46% and eeked out a win by just a few ten thousand votes in key states. That's how much he needs to win. If he just gets 45% he loses.

He could pretty much get zero votes in states like California and still win. That's probably more than 1%?

[dps]

I wish I could believe that, Beeb, but I think Trump's basic support will endure in the low 40s/high 30s no matter what the economy looks like.

That's true of every President.  There's 30-some percent of the electorate that's going to support a Republican President no matter what, and another 30-some percent that will support a Democratic President no matter what.   What matters politically is the 30 or so percent in between.

Of course, with the US electoral college system, 30-some percent support is all you need to get elected.

Trump had 46% and eeked out a win by just a few ten thousand votes in key states. That's how much he needs to win. If he just gets 45% he loses.

He could pretty much get zero votes in states like California and still win. That's probably more than 1%?

Well, you can win the Electoral College if you carry the largest 13 states IIRC, so in theory you could win the Presidency with just 13 popular votes if only 1 person voted in each of those states and that person in each of them voted for you.  Of course, that's completely unrealistic.

Actually, since the Constitution doesn't require the electors to vote in any set way, you technically win the Presidency without any popular votes at all, if you could somehow convince a majority of the electors to vote for you, but that's also not realistic.

[jimmy olsen]

Trump had 46% and eeked out a win by just a few ten thousand votes in key states. That's how much he needs to win. If he just gets 45% he loses.

Hence the conflict within the Democrats: whether one should campaign narrowly to get those tens of thousands of votes, or broadly to motivate the troops.

Don't think it's really possible to microtarget like that. If the Dem candidate wins back those tens of thousands of votes, they'll win tens of thousands of extra votes in every state and it will be seen in the national vote statistics as a swing of .2% or whatever.

It's not really microtargeting though.  You can still campaign broadly while putting things prominently on your plank to ease the problems facing the Rust Belt.  A lot of the things that most candidates say are carefully considered to send a particular message.

Oh my God! Senpai noticed me!

Welcome back Neil!

[The Brain]

Ethnic Albertans.

[Tamas]

I've often been a fan of the maxim that a President's ability to effect the economy in the short term is pretty limited, but Trump seems to want to prove me wrong.

Holy shit, Neil!

[Neil]

Neil???!?!?!

You just missed Savonarola - he's in town and we went out yesterday night!

I guess I could feel the disturbance in the air. 

[derspiess]

Welcome back

[crazy canuck]

I've often been a fan of the maxim that a President's ability to effect the economy in the short term is pretty limited, but Trump seems to want to prove me wrong.

You are just going to have to add in the qualification that the ability to effect the economy "to the upside" is pretty limited.

[Valmy]

Yeah the President has considerable power to easily fuck things up.

[The Minsky Moment]

The President can really only screw up the economy indirectly by mucking about with the Federal Reserve.  Neil's buddy Nixon was the last one to do that by leaning on Arthur Burns to keep money cheap, thus helping ignite the inflationary 70s (though to be fair Johnson did the same with Burns' predecessor).

Trump has been mucking about with the Fed and has threatened to appoint some really awful people but the worst has not yet manifested.  Give him enough time or God forbid a second term though and bad things are very likely to happen.