What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Valmy]

Delay is the word of either opposing party now.  We no longer have a government that really functions.

There's a reason Trump got to appoint a record number of judges, and it wasn't because Obama wasn't nominating them.

Exactly. The Republicans were assholes and fucked with the Democrats and behold the rich bounty of rewards they have received. If they had acted in good faith they would have been in far worse of a position. Hence the dysfunctional system.

[derspiess]

Dems' strategy from the first day of hearings has been to delay, delay, delay.  Anything to slow down the process is a win for them-- making the nominee look like crap and de-legitimizing him is a bonus.

Sure, but "Dems" isn't a collective mind that can simply make people (i.e. Ford) throw their lives into complete ruin to serve as a minor speedbump. I wasn't asking about "Dems" motivations, I was asking about hers.

You asked me what a potential reason could be for her making it up.  We know from her social media (a lot of it now sanitized) that she's pretty firmly on the Democrat side-- an activist, even.  As for ruining her life-- yes, she's opening herself up to a lot of ire from the right, but she's also a Democrat hero now.  People have made up false allegations for far less gain.

I should note at this point that I'm not saying she's lying.  I have no idea.  There's very little to go on to prove her accusation, yet also very little to exonerate Kavanaugh.

[derspiess]

Delay is the word of either opposing party now.  We no longer have a government that really functions.

There's a reason Trump got to appoint a record number of judges, and it wasn't because Obama wasn't nominating them.

Exactly. The Republicans were assholes and fucked with the Democrats and behold the rich bounty of rewards they have received. If they had acted in good faith they would have been in far worse of a position. Hence the dysfunctional system.

Democrats arguably started it with Bork.

[crazy canuck]

Care to share why?

Kavanaugh's denial.  The other alleged perp's denial.  Kavanaugh gives me an honest vibe. Her refusal to testify in front of the committee. You obviously have to deeply discount the claims about Ford listed in Syt's Facebook Follies post, but the statements are more precise (and fact checkable) than your typical internet retard attempt at character assassination.

Same question for the people who believe her.

A few general thoughts:

-becoming Anita Hill v 2.0 is not anything that anyone would want.  Ford has already gone into hiding apparently after receiving threats
-what she remembers, and what she doesn't, makes sense to me.  You remember the trauma, but not surrounding details like where it happened
-if you were going to fabricate, you'd do it differently.  You wouldn't be afraid to testify.

If it is a false allegation, I think it would be because she is misremembering who did this to her, not because she is manufacturing it out of whole cloth

I agree.  The conspiracy theory that a private citizen would put herself and her family through hell to simply create delay is not very persuasive.

It is interesting that Yi is persuaded by the nominee's denial.  I thought it was far too precise to be believable.  How could he possibly know he was not at the party in question? Especially when the evidence suggests he was a typical high school student of that era - and partied hard.  On the other hand the details of her allegation lack the precision of surrounding facts that one would expect and includes the precision of details one would expect a person to remember with the passage of time.

As a thought experiment I tried to remember back to the most traumatic event of my high school experience - even though it is not a great proxy since it was not nearly as traumatic as an attempted rape.  While at a field party someone threw a beer bottle at me and it knocked out my two front teeth.  I can remember exactly how that felt (both the moment of impact and the feeling as I ran my tongue over what was left of those teeth).  I can remember confronting the people who where in the direction the bottle came from (I didn't see the throw).  I have a clear recollection of the person I identified as the most likely person who threw it - I have a clear recollection of his face and I remember his name.  i can remember the altercation we had after the bottle hit me.  But I have no idea where the field party was, what time of year it took place or what time it took place - other than sometime at night.  I can't really remember the people who were with me at the party except for a couple of people who I always partied with.

Lastly, I remember the trip to the dentist the next morning and my parents discussing (in what they thought was out of earshot) how they were going to find the money to pay for the dental bill. 

[FunkMonk]

Care to share why?

Kavanaugh's denial.  The other alleged perp's denial.  Kavanaugh gives me an honest vibe. Her refusal to testify in front of the committee. You obviously have to deeply discount the claims about Ford listed in Syt's Facebook Follies post, but the statements are more precise (and fact checkable) than your typical internet retard attempt at character assassination.

Same question for the people who believe her.

If it is a false allegation, I think it would be because she is misremembering who did this to her, not because she is manufacturing it out of whole cloth

This is the one thing that throws me. The possibility that she is misremembering the event and inserting Kav in the role of attacker when it was actually someone else. Hell, maybe it was the other kid who was allegedly in the same room with them.

I still believe her though. Just.

[Valmy]

Delay is the word of either opposing party now.  We no longer have a government that really functions.

There's a reason Trump got to appoint a record number of judges, and it wasn't because Obama wasn't nominating them.

Exactly. The Republicans were assholes and fucked with the Democrats and behold the rich bounty of rewards they have received. If they had acted in good faith they would have been in far worse of a position. Hence the dysfunctional system.

Democrats arguably started it with Bork.

I am sure Democrats could point to numerous other instances in the distant past. In any case the problem is not that anybody is evil here, it is the fact that the system compels behavior that ultimately breaks the system. That is a difficult problem.

I mean it is not like the Republican voters, or the voters in general, were outraged by the Republicans bad behavior and cleaned house. On the contrary they were cheered just as the Democrats will be cheered this time, encouraging it to be repeated often by both sides. I suspect the same was true with Bork but that is a bit before my time.

The parallels to the Roman Republic are pretty clear...but as long as nobody marches on Washington...ok no military marches on Washington...we should be alright. The unwritten rules of the game have changed, you have to anticipate this level of obstruction when you try to do anything. Even if the Democrats liked Kav they would be compelled to act this way, just like I think some Republicans might have liked that dude Obama nominated to replace Scalia.

[bogh]

You asked me what a potential reason could be for her making it up.  We know from her social media (a lot of it now sanitized) that she's pretty firmly on the Democrat side-- an activist, even.  As for ruining her life-- yes, she's opening herself up to a lot of ire from the right, but she's also a Democrat hero now.  People have made up false allegations for far less gain.

I should note at this point that I'm not saying she's lying.  I have no idea.  There's very little to go on to prove her accusation, yet also very little to exonerate Kavanaugh.

Being an activist !== willingness to become a martyr.

Who do you think has the stronger personal incentive to lie about it - her or Kavanaugh?

[derspiess]

You asked me what a potential reason could be for her making it up.  We know from her social media (a lot of it now sanitized) that she's pretty firmly on the Democrat side-- an activist, even.  As for ruining her life-- yes, she's opening herself up to a lot of ire from the right, but she's also a Democrat hero now.  People have made up false allegations for far less gain.

I should note at this point that I'm not saying she's lying.  I have no idea.  There's very little to go on to prove her accusation, yet also very little to exonerate Kavanaugh.

Being an activist !== willingness to become a martyr.

Sometimes it does, though.

Who do you think has the stronger personal incentive to lie about it - her or Kavanaugh?

Kavanaugh obviously has more at stake.  Don't see that as being particularly relevant, though.

[FunkMonk]

Delay is the word of either opposing party now.  We no longer have a government that really functions.

There's a reason Trump got to appoint a record number of judges, and it wasn't because Obama wasn't nominating them.

Exactly. The Republicans were assholes and fucked with the Democrats and behold the rich bounty of rewards they have received. If they had acted in good faith they would have been in far worse of a position. Hence the dysfunctional system.

Democrats arguably started it with Bork.

The parallels to the Roman Republic are pretty clear...but as long as nobody marches on Washington...ok no military marches on Washington...we should be alright. The unwritten rules of the game have changed, you have to anticipate this level of obstruction when you try to do anything. Even if the Democrats liked Kav they would be compelled to act this way, just like I think some Republicans might have liked that dude Obama nominated to replace Scalia.

Donald continies to insist on having a military parade celebrating him, though 

[Eddie Teach]

You asked me what a potential reason could be for her making it up.  We know from her social media (a lot of it now sanitized) that she's pretty firmly on the Democrat side-- an activist, even.  As for ruining her life-- yes, she's opening herself up to a lot of ire from the right, but she's also a Democrat hero now.  People have made up false allegations for far less gain.

I should note at this point that I'm not saying she's lying.  I have no idea.  There's very little to go on to prove her accusation, yet also very little to exonerate Kavanaugh.

Being an activist !== willingness to become a martyr.

Who do you think has the stronger personal incentive to lie about it - her or Kavanaugh?

The point is, both have that incentive. I don't think you can just assume she's being truthful because of lack of motive. If the Dems delay enough, they may very well get another Kennedy instead of a Scalia.

[crazy canuck]

Kavanaugh obviously has more at stake.  Don't see that as being particularly relevant, though.

That is  one of the factors a trier of fact will often consider - who has the most to gain by lying?  Or perhaps put differently, what motivation is there to be dishonest.  It is the main reason the evidence of non parties is often preferred over those whose interests are at stake.   You have implicitly been weighing that factor when you question her motivation for making the allegation.

[bogh]

Sometimes it does, though.

Yeah? Could you provide a few examples?

Kavanaugh obviously has more at stake.  Don't see that as being particularly relevant, though.

You don't think motive is part of assessing testimony?

[bogh]

The point is, both have that incentive. I don't think you can just assume she's being truthful because of lack of motive. If the Dems delay enough, they may very well get another Kennedy instead of a Scalia.

What is her personal incentive for lying about it?

[Eddie Teach]

Why does it have to be personal?

[Valmy]

Why does it have to be personal?

He addressed that already right? The political martyr angle?