What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Tamas]

Did you watch the video?  Not sure why you would be offended by longer term trends being identified in your country as being a root cause to what your political leaders are doing.

I am not offended. However I do not think these forces are necessarily an America-only thing. All the international institutions and so forth listed have been challenged and hated by left and right wing fringes for decades and they are gaining momentum and not just in the US. I consider myself an opponent of these forces. I understand that in Canada they might not be strong but they are in other areas of the western world. Is 'America First' really different from 'Take Back Control' and other nationalist movements in the rest of the world?

So that was what I was getting at really. I did not mean to pass along the idea I was offended necessarily. Saddened a bit...yes.

And it is not just a Trump thing, there are similar forces over here in the Democratic Party I am worried about. I have been saying this for years. A Bernie Sanders type being elected would be happy with many of the things Trump has done internationally.

Hells yeah.

I keep telling you guys: those who look at Eastern Europe as being ahead in feeling the changing political winds (instead of being behind like in every other thing), are right: they are unstable societies with out the long-established self-defense mechanism of more lucky ones. Look to them of how things can develop for you. They won't necessarily WILL develop like that, but you can most certainly see how the bad version would play out.

[Jacob]

"Countries have no permanent friends or enemies, only interests"

This is probably true in the long run, but in the short term you can consider countries whose common interests far outweigh their different interests as friends.

I agree.

That was a Kissinger quote, btw.

[crazy canuck]

"Countries have no permanent friends or enemies, only interests"

This is probably true in the long run, but in the short term you can consider countries whose common interests far outweigh their different interests as friends.

Fair enough.

That was a Kissinger quote, btw.

And reflected a particular point of view, which unsurprisingly Grumbler has adopted.  While it has been apparent over the years that the Americans have been largely motivated by self interest, this is the first time it has been so prominent and untempered by other considerations, including who their main friends and allies in the world are.

The "ugly american" seemed to be a thing of the past, but it is again on the ascendancy within the US.

[garbon]

"Countries have no permanent friends or enemies, only interests"

This is probably true in the long run, but in the short term you can consider countries whose common interests far outweigh their different interests as friends.

Fair enough.

That was a Kissinger quote, btw.

And reflected a particular point of view, which unsurprisingly Grumbler has adopted.  While it has been apparent over the years that the Americans have been largely motivated by self interest, this is the first time it has been so prominent and untempered by other considerations, including who their main friends and allies in the world are.

The "ugly american" seemed to be a thing of the past, but it is again on the ascendancy within the US.

I don't think anything we are doing is actually about our self interests. More like pointless self harm.

[crazy canuck]

I don't think anything we are doing is actually about our self interests. More like pointless self harm.

I agree.  But it is being sold to the US voter as being in the US self interest and that is the basis upon which it has popular support.

[Syt]

NYT: Supreme Court Upholds Trump's Travel Ban

[Valmy]

I don't really understand the legal arguments one way or the other there. If the President can declare travel bans from certain countries then why would any travel ban be unconstitutional?

In any case most of those countries were not exactly having a ton of traffic coming here anyway.

[The Minsky Moment]

It's an interesting set of opinions.

I think it's pretty clear that if the EO was reviewed in a vacuum, it would survive scrutiny, at least facially, probably 9-0, for the reasons Valmy alludes to.

Of course, the EO didn't arise in a vacuum. There was context, and the context was Trump very openly and brazenly calling for a Muslim ban, and then when initially stymied by the failure of his first EO, directed his officials to come up with some way of "legally" enforcing a "Muslim ban" - resulting in the second EO under challenge.  That is recited as part of the record in the majority opinion.  It implicates constitutional concerns - i.e. that the EO was simply a legalistic pretext to violate to Establishment Clause.

All 9 justices were bothered by this and the opinions all comment on this.  Justice Roberts' majority opinion make a point of citing a series of Presidential statements on religious tolerance and then contrasting Trump critically.  But despite Robert's polite critique, he doesn't really grapple with the basic Constitutional problem of a President openly declaring he is using otherwise lawful authority for an unconstitutional purpose.  His opinion, though well-reasoned overall, dodges the fundamental question.

The dodge is no accident, and it isn't just Roberts. There are 3 dogs conspicuous for not barking in the case: Gorsuch, Alito, and Thomas.  All three silently join Roberts, none writes separately.  All 3 are strong exponents of an expansive reading of 1st amendment religious rights.  Gorsuch, joined by Alito, just last month wrote in an opinion in the Colorado cake baker case where he emphasized the "animus" against religion expressed by the Colorado Civil Rights Commission.  Here the same kind of animus is expressed by the President of the United States, and Gorsuch remains silent, content to shelter behind Roberts' dodge.  But the discomfort is clear through the silence.  And it comes out in Thomas' decision to join a concurring opinion by Kennedy.  It is probably the first time that Kennedy and Thomas alone ever joined in on an opinion - it's an unusual line up.  It's unusual because Thomas -- whatever his demerits - usually writes plainly, whereas Kennedy does not.  Here Kennedy's short opinion is a confused mess - but it does express a clear sentiment: concern about animus being shown to religion, although apparently not enough to change the outcome.  Thomas joins this statement is silence.  And his silence here deafens.

[Razgovory]

I missed the funny part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FopyRHHlt3M

[Syt]

Minsky, what's your opinion on the SCOTUS rulings in the gerrymandering cases?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gerrymandering-wrap/supreme-court-favors-republicans-in-gerrymandering-cases-idUSKBN1JL2KE

[Zanza]

Some times you do things because it's the right thing to do.  Germany sent troops to fight and die in Afghanistan because the US asked.  Was the Taliban a threat to Germany?  No, not really.  Does Germany really need NATO?  No, not anymore.  Chances of an invasion of Germany are fairly slim.  They went because they were our friends.

Today is the 70th anniversary of the Berlin Airlift. I think America has been a friend of Germany for the last seven decades.



The current American administration does not value this friendship though and transforms America into an economic rival and bully and follows quite different foreign policy goals than Germany. Not sure where we currently even have a single foreign policy that we share with Trump. I guess discomfort with Chinese economic might and protectionism. 

[Admiral Yi]

The facts that the kids back then were all cute, well-behaved, and dressed like dorks all helped.

[celedhring]

Looks like Trump will meet with Putin after the NATO summit. Is this "piss off your allies, cuddle up with some authoritarian figure" routine now a thing?

[DGuller]

As if he torrent of bad news hasn't been strong enough, Kennedy is retiring.  I hope all the non-fascists that stayed home are happy with themselves.

[Valmy]

As if he torrent of bad news hasn't been strong enough, Kennedy is retiring.  I hope all the non-fascists that stayed home are happy with themselves.

Oh fuck.