What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[LaCroix]

you accidentally bolded this part "Elliott Abrams said Monday he guesses"

I mean, honestly I think it won't be that hard to find people who actively voiced public opposition to trump. a lot of people did, but a lot of people didn't

[jimmy olsen]

you accidentally bolded this part "Elliott Abrams said Monday he guesses"

I bolded what I wanted to bold.

On to tax refrom. Looks like Ryan's attempt to thread the needle of Trump's protectionsim with traditional GOP thinking on taxes is running into a congressional road block

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/paul-ryan-tax-reform-republicans-235117

Ryan struggles to sell tax reform plan to fellow Republicans

GOP senators are wary of a pillar of the speaker's proposal, an ominous sign for one of Donald Trump's top agenda items.

By Rachael Bade, Burgess Everett and Eliana Johnson

02/16/17 07:38 PM EST

Paul Ryan showed up to Senate Republicans' weekly lunch on Tuesday hoping to salvage a controversial pillar of his tax reform plan that would change how imports and exports are taxed. "Keep your powder dry," the House speaker pleaded.

The next day, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) took to the Senate floor to slam Ryan's so-called "border adjustment tax," saying "some ideas are so stupid only an intellectual could believe them."

"Many other senators share these concerns and we most certainly will not 'keep our powder dry,'" Cotton went on, without naming the speaker in his speech.

The sequence was an ominous sign for a linchpin of Ryan's tax plan — and perhaps for the prospects of tax reform happening at all. The border adjustment tax would generate more than a trillion dollars over a decade; there's no obvious way to replace that money, which is needed to help pay for a steep cut in corporate and income taxes.

In meetings with administration officials and Senate leaders, Ryan has framed his proposal as a compromise between a tariff, which the president wants, and conservative orthodoxy against border taxes. He has suggested it's in keeping with President Donald Trump's "America first" mantra, since it would reward American manufacturers that make stuff here and sell it abroad.

But the idea is sharply dividing Republicans — even within the White House.

Trump's chief strategist Steve Bannon likes it, but the president's chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, is opposed, according to people who have talked with them. Trump himself has acknowledged he doesn't think much of the proposal, though he has said he will keep an open mind.

Many Republican senators say privately they detest the concept, fretting that will hurt their in-state retailers like Walmart, which is headquartered in Cotton's state. Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), sources say, has warned Trump and Ryan that border adjustment won't likely have the support needed to clear the Senate.

Hatch, in an interview after Ryan's presentation, said the speaker "didn't cover [the border adjustment proposal] as specifically as I would have liked." And Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), the fifth-ranking GOP senator, said the Finance Committee will likely go a "different way."

Others were more unequivocal.

"It's beyond a complication. It's a bad economic proposition," said Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.).

That's not to mention Ryan's issue in own chamber. A handful of Ways and Means Republicans — including some with close ties to Trump — are fretting that retailers slapped with a new import tax will ultimately pass the cost onto consumers. One member of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio), asked his chairman Wednesday to hold hearings on the proposal.

The clock is ticking for Ryan. Senior House Republican sources told POLITICO that if the border adjustment proposal is not included in Trump's tax blueprint, set to be unveiled in the coming weeks, it could be even tougher to rally Republicans to the idea. Supporters of Ryan's proposal are crossing their fingers that Trump doesn't introduce a detailed tax plan at all, worried it could complicate their work.

A source familiar with the White House's thinking said it's unlikely Trump would try to push through the border-adjustment tax if key administration officials and senators are still divided over it.

"It's fair to say there's a lot of questions about how it would work and the assumptions on which it's based," said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas).

During a press conference Thursday, Ryan downplayed questions about opposition to the border adjustment tax and argued some people simply don't understand how it works. Holding up reporters' tape recorders as props, he explained how an American-made recorder is taxed much more than a Japanese product. His idea, he added, would make American businesses more competitive worldwide.

Senior House Republican sources who back him say the House has been working on tax reform for years and has already considered numerous financing mechanisms. But all of them have set off firestorms within various industries. A border adjustment tax, they say, is the best option on a limited menu.

Without it, they contend, tax reform will die.

Ryan has made the same pitch to his colleagues privately, according to one source close with the speaker who heard it.

"Ryan is impressing on his fellow Republicans that any tax reform proposal is bound to contain controversial measures — which is precisely why it hasn't gotten done," the source said. If the new Republican majority is going to clear the hurdle, he has told colleagues, it is going to have to be with this plan.

Ryan spent at least a half-hour explaining why the border adjustment is essential. But multiple GOP Senators told POLITICO they felt his talk was too wonkish and hard to follow. Some bristled at being told to keep their "powder dry" while Ryan is aggressively campaigning for the tax.

"I heard 'keep your powder dry' as, 'Don't articulate your cogent arguments against our bad idea,'" one senator said. "I have not yet talked to a single senator who's enthusiastic about it. Ryan and [Ways and Means Chairman Kevin] Brady seem to have a near-theological commitment to it."

At the Senate GOP lunch a week earlier, former Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas blasted the border adjustment idea tax. His arguments were easier to follow and resonated with many of his ex-colleagues, attendees said.

"To me he made more sense," said Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), contrasting Gramm's presentation with Ryan's.

Not all Senate Republicans are panning Ryan's idea. Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 3 GOP leader, said "they've got a bold proposal out there" and said "at least conceptually, there are a lot of things in it to like."

However, "I think the border adjustability is the hard thing to sell," he added.

Ironically, the speaker seems to have a strong ally in Bannon, the ex-boss of Breitbart News, which attacked the speaker mercilessly during the campaign. A senior House Republican source, however, said it would depend on who most has the ear of the president when he decides whether or not to support the proposal. In other words: Bannon's support doesn't necessarily mean Trump will follow suit.

Ryan is hoping he can also win the support of Trump's influential son-in-law Jared Kushner, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Treasury Secretary pick Steven Mnuchin and senior adviser Stephen Miller.

While a host of conservative groups led by the Koch brothers and the Club for Growth have lined up in opposition, other outside groups with close Senate contacts are set to begin a campaign to pressure the chamber to take a closer look. It's led by former National Republican Senatorial Committee executive director Ward Baker at a firm run by Josh Holmes, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's former chief of staff — well-connected former ex-Senate staffers who could help Ryan tremendously.

But the prospects in the Senate, at this point, appear grim.

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) called Ryan a "brilliant man" and — parroting Ryan's talking point — said he's keeping his "proverbial powder dry." Yet Scott said Ryan needs to be aware that he simply might not have the votes to get his way in the chamber.

"It's not what we think about border adjustability. It's what we do think about having 51 of 52 senators saying yes to border adjustability," Scott said. "I'm not yet sold."

[jimmy olsen]

Fucking terrifying

https://twitter.com/elianayjohnson/status/832423862780514305

Situation at WH -- A senior NSC aide said to me: "I don't know anything. Nobody knows anything. I don't know who knows anything."

[LaCroix]

http://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=515411688

INSKEEP: You mean seeking out people who would say things like Mexicans are rapists? The media are seeking out people like that?

MOORE: Well, not - no, I mean Donald Trump did say that. And that was truly offensive and awful. I mean, Donald Trump says a million things. But no, if you - look at the coverage of when, you know, especially during the election - going to the rally, they would find probably the most unfortunate and ignorant looking person in the room and then start asking them about policies, just so that they could mock them.

more examples of what people mean by bias. also this hidden comment awhile back from nate bronze

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/so-umm-is-the-trump-administration-in-disarray/

Because the press has a tendency, first, to exaggerate the importance of minor stories. And secondly, there's a lot of confirmation bias. If the narrative is that Trump is in disarray, they see the bad news but not the good news, and ambiguous stories are taken to be bad news.

[saskganesh]

So in response to the Trumpet outrage over the leaks, the spooks are now leaking that they have enough evidence on Trump so that "he will die in jail" and that they are preparing "to go nuclear" with it

This is really dirty. Wow.

Links?

just google "Trump Die in Jail". Any link I post will be quickly outdated.

Infowars is blaming the leaks on "Muslim Sympathizers."

[saskganesh]

One comment on the WaPo article: "As an admiral, he recognizes a sinking ship when he sees one."

Ouch.

POTUS still hasn't hired a communications director. (Spicer does the job on the side). Either no one wants the job or proactively communicating with the media and other stakeholders isn't important to this administration. Quite possibly both.

[Eddie Teach]

They're afraid of crossing derSpicey.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Lol 

Trump's new pick for NSA turned him down.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/02/16/trumps-pick-to-replace-michael-flynn-as-national-security-adviser-turns-down-offer-people-familiar-with-decision-say/?utm_term=.5d1f43a8bdaa

Well it speaks volumes. I was hoping to get a level headed person in there. Not room for another wacko. This is truly....so sad.

Every day I'm glad Mattis is in charge of DoD. Domestically, things might be a shitshow, but we might get through this without a nuclear war or destroying our military or all of our foreign alliances.

[jimmy olsen]

The brother of Betsy DeVos who founded Blackwater is setting up a private army for China. 

https://www.buzzfeed.com/aramroston/betsy-devoss-brother-is-setting-up-a-private-army-for-china?utm_term=.ip422dy2g#.dsyQQv4QZ

[CountDeMoney]

The New York Times
Politics
Campaign Over, President Trump Will Hold a (What Else?) Campaign Rally
By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS
FEB. 16, 2017

WASHINGTON — In an extraordinarily swift return to politicking after a tumultuous first month in office, the White House on Wednesday said President Trump will hold the first campaign rally of his four-week-old administration on Saturday.

The rally, to be held in an airplane hangar in Melbourne, Fla., is an indication that Mr. Trump, who has sometimes felt isolated in the White House, is eager to get outside of Washington and relive the rapturous reception that greeted him during the presidential campaign. Mr. Trump exulted in large crowds assembled at cavernous venues throughout his 2016 bid, and spent the first days of his presidency quibbling over how many Americans attended his inauguration.

On Wednesday, during a joint news conference with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, Mr. Trump answered a question about whether his administration was flirting with xenophobia and racism in part by noting the support he received in the election.

"I just want to say that we are very honored by the victory that we had — 306 Electoral College votes," Mr. Trump said. "There's tremendous enthusiasm out there."

Not long after, in a posting on Twitter, Mr. Trump invited his nearly 25 million followers to attend the Saturday evening event, which will take place just up the coast from his Mar-a-Lago retreat in Palm Beach where he plans to spend the weekend. It will be his third weekend in a row on Florida's Gold Coast.

"We are going to put America back to work," a message accompanying the posting said. "We are going to put people before government."

The White House would not provide any additional information about the rally. Officials referred questions to a member of Mr. Trump's political organization, who also did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

"It's being run by the campaign," Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, said on Wednesday, without elaborating. He would not say why the president would be holding a campaign rally so soon after taking office.

The rally will be only the second public appearance by Mr. Trump outside of Washington since he took office. On Friday, he is scheduled to visit a Boeing plant in North Charleston, S.C., for the unveiling of the aerospace manufacturer's new Dreamliner aircraft.

Mr. Trump filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission for his 2020 re-election campaign on Jan. 20, the day he was sworn in. That allowed him to continue to accept contributions — including proceeds from the sales of his popular red "Make America Great Again" hats — without running afoul of the law.

Mr. Trump ended the 2016 campaign flush with funds, in part because of substantial sales of the hats. At the end of 2016, he had $7,611,702.92 cash on hand and no debt.

The rally comes at a precarious time for Mr. Trump, as his White House is reeling from personnel turmoil and has yet to score any legislative victories. On Tuesday, he accepted the resignation of his national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, who had become embroiled in allegations that he had improper contacts with Russian officials before Mr. Trump took office. That was followed on Wednesday by the abrupt withdrawal of Andrew F. Puzder, the president's nominee to be secretary of labor, amid allegations that he had abused his ex-wife and employed an illegal immigrant.

Mr. Trump had vowed to move quickly to put his policy agenda in place once in the White House. But his effort to use executive power to crack down on immigration has faltered in the face of legal challenges, and his administration has yet to issue a proposal either for repealing the health care law he railed against during the campaign or enacting the tax overhaul he has promised.

Larry M. Noble, the general counsel of the Campaign Legal Center, a nonpartisan group, said he was not aware of any president having held a campaign rally this early in his tenure.

"Usually, they are too busy trying to get their administration in place," Mr. Noble said. "More importantly, normally the president wants to delay candidate status so that he can travel as president making speeches, announcing new policies and actions, promoting his agenda and attacking his opponents in Congress without having to use campaign funds."

Barack Obama did not file his statement of candidacy for re-election until April 2011, more than two years after he took office, while George W. Bush waited until May of 2003 and Bill Clinton until April of 1995.

Mr. Trump may be moving now, Mr. Noble said, to ensure he can address a friendly crowd devoid of protesters.

"My guess is that he intends to control who is invited to the rally and press access by calling the rally a candidate event and paying for it out of campaign funds," Mr. Noble said. "If it was an official White House event, he would have less control over it."

Mr. Trump is likely to travel to the event on Air Force One and will have a sizable contingent of Secret Service and staff aides with him, as presidents always do when they travel. Campaign finance laws dictate that the cost of such a flight be shared between the campaign organizing the rally and the White House.

It is not abnormal for a sitting president to hold a political rally in the months before an election, and Mr. Trump has said he plans to campaign actively for Republicans who support him and against Democrats who seek to stymie his agenda. But Mr. Trump's return to the campaign trail on Saturday is unusually early. Even the midterm congressional elections for members of Congress are still 21 months away.

[Zanza]

The border adjustment tax proposal got a lot of press here as it would hurt our exporting companies.
There is also a question whether it would be in line with WTO rules.
And the Economist suggested that it would cause a massive one-time appreciation of the dollar by 20% to rebalance international trade.
Will be interesting to follow debate on that.

[Admiral Yi]

Mr. Trump ended the 2016 campaign flush with funds, in part because of substantial sales of the hats. At the end of 2016, he had $7,611,702.92 cash on hand and no debt.

Well that's kind of interesting.  What happened to those massive personal loans he made to the campaign?

[jimmy olsen]

K.T. McFarland is apparently the lynchpin upon which the National Security apparatus now turns.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2017/02/robert_harward_turned_down_trump_now_others_can_too.html

Trump's Public Humiliation

By rejecting the national security adviser job, Robert Harward gave cover to every professional who wants to turn the president down.

By Fred Kaplan

Donald Trump isn't accustomed to hearing prospective underlings say "No." So it came as a shock when retired Vice Adm. Robert Harward—his first choice to replace Michael Flynn as national security adviser—told the president he'd have to think about the offer. It must have been a double shock when, a few days later, Harward turned him down flat.

The rejection is stunning in several ways that go well beyond the scope of Trump's personal sensitivities. First, it is very unusual—almost unheard of—for a senior military officer, retired or otherwise, to turn down a request from the commander-in-chief.

Second, and largely for that reason, by rejecting the offer Harward has provided cover to other officers, and to civilian national-security analysts with a similar sense of patriotic duty, to turn down this president, too. Service, in this case, is not its own reward and by no stretch worth the sacrifice.

Third, the Financial Times, Washington Post, CNN, and other news outlets are reporting that Harward turned down the offer in part because Trump wouldn't let him fire several officials that Flynn had hired for his staff and install his own team instead. This suggests that Trump is adamant on keeping certain people loyal to him—including Deputy National Security Adviser K.T. McFarland, a former Fox News commentator who Trump admired. The news reports don't mention whether Harward made demands about Steve Bannon, Trump's chief political strategist, who wrote the executive order that placed himself on the NSC Principals Committee and has created a parallel NSC structure called the Strategic Initiatives Group, comprised of a few extreme right-wing associates. But any serious person would insist on the dismantling of this weird group as another condition for taking the job.

The national security adviser plays several roles. He or she chairs the Principals Committee, the interagency group of Cabinet secretaries and top military and intelligence officers who help make decisions on high matters of policy; coordinates the NSC staff, which includes a few dozen political appointees and a couple hundred professional analysts; and advises the president, to the extent the president wants to be advised. In other words, to make the job worthwhile, the adviser must have close access to the president and clear lines of authority over the national-security bureaucracy.

Trump would not guarantee Harward this sort of authority, so Harward turned the job down.

The Post reported that Harward was also reluctant to accept the offer for financial reasons, worried that leaving his job as a senior executive at Lockheed Martin would hurt his family. Yet few military officers—especially retired generals and admirals—let such factors get in the way of serving the president. CNN quoted one of Harward's friends saying that, in mulling over the decision, he was persuaded most of all by the sheer dysfunction of Trump's presidency, describing the job he was offered as "a shit sandwich."

Harward would have come to the job with the experience of a warrior, a commander, an analyst, and a staff officer. In his 38 years as a Navy officer, he had been a SEAL, the deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, the representative of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the National Counterterrorism Center, and the director of strategy and policy on the National Security Council staff.

In other words, Trump was given a choice: cater to the loyalty and ambitions of his political operatives, who have no competence whatsoever in national security affairs—or install a professional who can build and maintain a functioning national-security apparatus. He chose the former.

Harward would also have had a link to Secretary of Defense James Mattis, who was commander of U.S. Central Command when Harward was its deputy. It's possible that some in Trump's inner circle, especially Bannon, wouldn't want there to be these sorts of ties, as they could be used to bypass the White House and circumvent his own power.

Trump may now have a hard time filling the position with anyone whose qualifications or prominence would help calm the jitters of allies worldwide—and foreign-policy specialists here—who are wondering what the hell is going on with this president. At the moment, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, a competent administrator who had been the NSC's chief of staff, is the acting national security adviser, and it may be that Trump will have to settle on him as the successor.

Three weeks into his term, Trump heads a White House with three or four vacant power centers. He has no national security adviser, a half-full NSC staff, hollow Defense and State Departments (where Trump has yet to nominate any deputy or undersecretaries), and the secretaries heading those departments—Mattis and Rex Tillerson—who, however smart and talented they may be, have never run a federal agency.

At his wild and woolly press conference Thursday afternoon, Trump twice insisted that his administration was "a fine-tuned machine." It was a risible claim then. A few hours later, after news broke that a retired vice admiral and former Navy SEAL didn't want to work for him, not even in one of the most vaunted jobs in the White House, the claim careened into total absurdity.

[CountDeMoney]

Mr. Trump ended the 2016 campaign flush with funds, in part because of substantial sales of the hats. At the end of 2016, he had $7,611,702.92 cash on hand and no debt.

Well that's kind of interesting.  What happened to those massive personal loans he made to the campaign?

They were forgiven.

[garbon]

I think this is my favourite part of his performance and there were a lot of gems.

http://www.vox.com/2017/2/16/14640772/president-trump-quotes-presser

After reporter April Ryan asked Trump about the Congressional Black Caucus, the president asked if she could set up a meeting with them. Ryan, who is black, is the White House correspondent and Washington bureau chief for American Urban Radio Networks in Baltimore.

RYAN: When you say the inner cities, are you going — are you going to include the CBC, Mr. President? In your conversations with your -- your urban agenda, your inner city agenda, as well as --

TRUMP: Am I going to include who?

RYAN: Are you going to include the Congressional Black Caucus and the Congressional --

TRUMP: Well, I would. I tell you what, do you want to set up the meeting? Do you want to set up the meeting?

RYAN: No, no, no. I'm not —-

TRUMP: Are they friends of yours?

RYAN: I'm just a reporter.

TRUMP: Well, then set up the meeting.

RYAN: I know some of them, but I'm sure they're watching right now.

TRUMP: Let's go set up a meeting. I would love to meet with the Black Caucus. I think it's great, the Congressional Black Caucus. I think it's great.