What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[jimmy olsen]

The whole "take their oil" thing makes me seriously question his basic comprehension of reality.  I am not a geologist, so I could be wrong here, but oil fields don't seem like something you can just pick up and carry away.  I hope there is someone in the White House who is there to tell him that confiscating natural phenomenon isn't physically possible.

Surely he means it in an early 20th century imperialism type of way where we set up a colony or puppet government and take control of the oil fields directly.

[grumbler]

there may have been a slight joke to the iraqi oil comment, but it's part of his strategy of keeping the world on its toes -- never know what to expect, underestimate and overestimate him at the same time. trump is playing chess while the world plays checkers. to borrow from dguller, trump is a level 7 player.

  I think you are watching a game of tick-tack-toe and convincing yourself it is a brilliant game of mental chess.

Trump's lies are keeping the world 'on it's toes' because the world cannot believe he has such contempt for the truth.  Even Saddam made some concessions to reality.

[Zanza]

there may have been a slight joke to the iraqi oil comment, but it's part of his strategy of keeping the world on its toes -- never know what to expect, underestimate and overestimate him at the same time. trump is playing chess while the world plays checkers. to borrow from dguller, trump is a level 7 player.

He's playing chess, but he only knows the movement rules of the pawns, not the other figures.

[garbon]

there may have been a slight joke to the iraqi oil comment, but it's part of his strategy of keeping the world on its toes -- never know what to expect, underestimate and overestimate him at the same time. trump is playing chess while the world plays checkers. to borrow from dguller, trump is a level 7 player.

  I think you are watching a game of tick-tack-toe and convincing yourself it is a brilliant game of mental chess.

Trump's lies are keeping the world 'on it's toes' because the world cannot believe he has such contempt for the truth.  Even Saddam made some concessions to reality.

I wonder if LaCroix is just trying to simulate what it must be like to be Kellyanne Conway.

[celedhring]

Withdrawing from TPP is a colossal blunder for American geostrategic interests. It seems to me he's the one declaring victory after lining up three pawns on a chessboard.

[merithyn]

I hope all the people involved in impeachment discussions are keeping detailed notes.  I want to read about it when it's over.

My speculation is everyone who matters agrees in theory but prudent people are worried about violent reactions from Trump supporters.

Found this yesterday. It's surprisingly well-balanced, the URL notwithstanding. It shows what he needs to do to prevent being impeached as well as where is he on the impeachment road.

http://trump45impeachmentwatch.com/

[derspiess]

Withdrawing from TPP is a colossal blunder for American geostrategic interests. It seems to me he's the one declaring victory after lining up three pawns on a chessboard.

I wouldn't say it's a colossal blunder, but I agree it's a mistake.  But it's what he said he was going to do.  Hell, it became what Hillary said she'd do (thanks Bernie).

[Maximus]

I hope all the people involved in impeachment discussions are keeping detailed notes.  I want to read about it when it's over.

My speculation is everyone who matters agrees in theory but prudent people are worried about violent reactions from Trump supporters.

I wouldn't call that prudent.

[Berkut]

Read some articles on German politicians thinking that Trump is not bullshitting but means everything he says. Which in turn means that our government now considers to prepare for a trade war with our biggest trade partner...

Its an interesting intellectual exercise.

How fast can you destroy 70 years of global dominance, if you try really, really hard?

[merithyn]

Read some articles on German politicians thinking that Trump is not bullshitting but means everything he says. Which in turn means that our government now considers to prepare for a trade war with our biggest trade partner...

Its an interesting intellectual exercise.

How fast can you destroy 70 years of global dominance, if you try really, really hard?

Apparently from the inside, really fucking fast. 

[Tamas]

Read some articles on German politicians thinking that Trump is not bullshitting but means everything he says. Which in turn means that our government now considers to prepare for a trade war with our biggest trade partner...

Its an interesting intellectual exercise.

How fast can you destroy 70 years of global dominance, if you try really, really hard?

Apparently from the inside, really fucking fast. 

There is one thing that gives me pause in the doom and gloom:

I 100% agree with you guys. I still find it some twisted and sick joke that such an utter joke of a human being can hold any position power, let alone the most important one.

On the other hand, I read our discussion and I am fairly certain, it must look exactly like the kind of discussion derspiess and his buddies had the past 8 years, about the end of America and the destruction of everything that's dear. So maybe that gives SOME hope that we are exaggerating.

[The Minsky Moment]

there may have been a slight joke to the iraqi oil comment, but it's part of his strategy of keeping the world on its toes -- never know what to expect, underestimate and overestimate him at the same time. trump is playing chess while the world plays checkers. to borrow from dguller, trump is a level 7 player.

He's a strategic player of such breathtaking insight and sophistication that it took a former Esquire staff writer to elucidate his methods. (Trump being incapable of putting his anecdotes into English sentences and a narrative).  His basic approach is the kind of stuff you can read about in introductory negotiation books - Richard Shell's Bargaining for Advantage is a good example that actually has a couple of references to Trump and Art of the Deal.  The potential tactical use of unpredictability is a concept that goes back to the age of Alcibiades, and was systematically analyzed during the Cold War era by Thomas Schelling among others - it's covered extensively in Strategy of Conflict.  Nixon at times cultivated an air of irrationality to be deployed to keep adversaries on their toes along Schelling's lines, and did it in a far more strategic way than Trump has so far. 

The problem with unpredictability is that the occasional gain in bargaining leverage in some settings is counter-balanced by loss of credibility and trust in others.  That is why an international strategy based around unpredictability is most commonly adopted by pariah states or weaker states facing poor external correlations of forces (NK being a good present day example).  Unpredictability for an actual or putative hegemon or leader of an international system OTOH is usually not a desirable strategy because it undermines the integrity of the very system the hegemon uses to amplify its influence in the world.  Trump, however, doesn't get this because he is ignorant of basic international relations theory and practice, and has a very naive worldview.  He has no master plan - he's just falling back on the habits of his decades as an NYC RE mogul.  But the kinds of behaviors and tactics that succeed and are expected in that very specialized world don't carry over cleanly to international diplomacy.

[merithyn]

On the other hand, I read our discussion and I am fairly certain, it must look exactly like the kind of discussion derspiess and his buddies had the past 8 years, about the end of America and the destruction of everything that's dear. So maybe that gives SOME hope that we are exaggerating.

The difference is in who we're discussing. Whatever people thought of Obama's politics, there was never any question that he was Presidential. We knew what was happening, where things were going. You may not agree with those things, but there was an understanding of what those things were.

With Trump, it's dangerous. Obama never threatened the press or made himself unavailable to them. In fact, the argument was that he wanted them around TOO much, that he pandered to them. Obama never called the intelligence community out as Nazis. He didn't bald-face lie about easily checkable facts.

You're comparing apples to oranges here. I'm not afraid of a Republican in office. I'm afraid of Trump in office, and there is a huge difference.

[Tamas]

On the other hand, I read our discussion and I am fairly certain, it must look exactly like the kind of discussion derspiess and his buddies had the past 8 years, about the end of America and the destruction of everything that's dear. So maybe that gives SOME hope that we are exaggerating.

The difference is in who we're discussing. Whatever people thought of Obama's politics, there was never any question that he was Presidential. We knew what was happening, where things were going. You may not agree with those things, but there was an understanding of what those things were.

With Trump, it's dangerous. Obama never threatened the press or made himself unavailable to them. In fact, the argument was that he wanted them around TOO much, that he pandered to them. Obama never called the intelligence community out as Nazis. He didn't bald-face lie about easily checkable facts.

You're comparing apples to oranges here. I'm not afraid of a Republican in office. I'm afraid of Trump in office, and there is a huge difference.

Of course, but what I am saying is, if you look at the facebook stuff Syt posts in the other thread, for instance, some people were absolutely convinced Obama was a loose cannon hell bent on destroying America. They looked at the presidential guy you (and I) saw, and saw some kind of monster. Same goes for Hillary.

[grumbler]

On the other hand, I read our discussion and I am fairly certain, it must look exactly like the kind of discussion derspiess and his buddies had the past 8 years, about the end of America and the destruction of everything that's dear. So maybe that gives SOME hope that we are exaggerating.

Indeed, I have thought the same, and wondered if their tinfoil-hat routine about Obama being Muslim and/or Kenyan wasn't designed precisely so that, when they got their knucklehead elected (not Trump; he was unexpected, I think, but rather Pence or one of the TEA Partiers or evangelicals) the reaction of the rest of the country could be fobbed off as crying wolf.