What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[The Minsky Moment]

that's not evidence, that's an assumption based on some facts, and the assumption wouldn't pass preponderance. ivanka probably has more than one deal going on in more than one country, and she's by far the closest to trump of his children. she also seems pretty savvy. it made sense to bring her along

No that is evidence - and what you call "assumption" has another name: inference.  You are right Ivanka has deals going on in multiple countries, which only makes the fact of her regular presence at such meetings more suspicious not less.  For example there is also the fortutitous clearance of the Trump Organization's regulatory delays in Argentina after the conversation between Macri and Trump (again with Ivanka present).  If you want more direct proof, I suggest you call upon Mr. Trump to provide disclosure about his business dealings, instead of (contrary to all precedent) concealing them.

I have nothing against Ivanka and I agree with your assessment of her personally, but given the total lack of separation between Trump the man seeking public office and Trump the international dynastic business enterprise, it is difficult to reach a different conclusion.

[derspiess]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/07/us-steel-wants-to-accelerate-investments-bring-back-jobs-ceo-says.html

#trumpeffect

[The Minsky Moment]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/07/us-steel-wants-to-accelerate-investments-bring-back-jobs-ceo-says.html

#trumpeffect

Translation: give me billions in tax breaks, let us pollute, and crush the unions, and we'll create 10,000 new jobs.  Well not us but the whole industry.

(Meanwhile SolarCity employs 15,000 alone, Mr. Where's the Green Jobs)

[LaCroix]

that's not evidence, that's an assumption based on some facts, and the assumption wouldn't pass preponderance. ivanka probably has more than one deal going on in more than one country, and she's by far the closest to trump of his children. she also seems pretty savvy. it made sense to bring her along

No that is evidence - and what you call "assumption" has another name: inference.  You are right Ivanka has deals going on in multiple countries, which only makes the fact of her regular presence at such meetings more suspicious not less.  For example there is also the fortutitous clearance of the Trump Organization's regulatory delays in Argentina after the conversation between Macri and Trump (again with Ivanka present).  If you want more direct proof, I suggest you call upon Mr. Trump to provide disclosure about his business dealings, instead of (contrary to all precedent) concealing them.

I have nothing against Ivanka and I agree with your assessment of her personally, but given the total lack of separation between Trump the man seeking public office and Trump the international dynastic business enterprise, it is difficult to reach a different conclusion.

inference requires more evidence than an assumption. you're willing to conclude based on the facts that ivanka's presence in these meetings was to help the trump dynasty (rather than to help her father with a diplomatic mission). I don't think the facts support that conclusion more than the other conclusion. time may very well give us additional facts that end up tipping in your assumption's favor, but I think it's premature to call it an inference rather than assumption.

personally, I think trump more wants to do a good job as president than to line his pockets. plus, he probably knows that if he does well, his presidential success will lead to greater rewards for his dynasty down the line.

[Valmy]

inference requires more evidence than an assumption. you're willing to conclude based on the facts that ivanka's presence in these meetings was to help the trump dynasty (rather than to help her father with a diplomatic mission). I don't think the facts support that conclusion more than the other conclusion. time may very well give us additional facts that end up tipping in your assumption's favor, but I think it's premature to call it an inference rather than assumption.

I do not think that is the only data point but I don't see how the facts have such an infinite variety of interpretation. Instead of having people who are well informed about our relations with Japan you have a family member there with business interests in Japan? But you cannot take that to inform anything about priorities about family interests versus national interests? Why not? Just because you say so and you really say so and stuff?

[frunk]

personally, I think trump more wants to do a good job as president than to line his pockets. plus, he probably knows that if he does well, his presidential success will lead to greater rewards for his dynasty down the line.

Considering he's spent most of the past 40 years ripping off people and business partners for his and his family's gain, I'm not sure why you would think he's suddenly changed.

[LaCroix]

inference requires more evidence than an assumption. you're willing to conclude based on the facts that ivanka's presence in these meetings was to help the trump dynasty (rather than to help her father with a diplomatic mission). I don't think the facts support that conclusion more than the other conclusion. time may very well give us additional facts that end up tipping in your assumption's favor, but I think it's premature to call it an inference rather than assumption.

I do not think that is the only data point but I don't see how the facts have such an infinite variety of interpretation. Instead of having people who are well informed about our relations with Japan you have a family member there with business interests in Japan? But you cannot take that to inform anything about priorities about family interests versus national interests? Why not? Just because you say so and you really say so and stuff?

we know trump sticks with people he trusts and wants them around him. I'm saying the evidence at this point offers valid interpretations ffor why he brought ivanka to that meeting that do not involve him intending to influence some deal ivanka was working out with a japanese company. it's a big accusation to argue the primary purpose behind the move was to line his family's pockets, and the evidence is insufficient to support that accusation. it's possible that was his intended purpose, but the original claim was not discussing possibilities; it asserted it as a fact.

[LaCroix]

personally, I think trump more wants to do a good job as president than to line his pockets. plus, he probably knows that if he does well, his presidential success will lead to greater rewards for his dynasty down the line.

Considering he's spent most of the past 40 years ripping off people and business partners for his and his family's gain, I'm not sure why you would think he's suddenly changed.

because many businessmen-turned-politicians have "changed" (not used their political power solely/mostly to line their pockets)

[frunk]

because many businessmen-turned-politicians have "changed" (not used their political power solely/mostly to line their pockets)

Most of those businessmen haven't spent the past 40 years ripping off people and their business partners.

[The Minsky Moment]

I can observe a simple fact - Trump himself makes no distinction between private and public interest.  That is another way in which he resembles traditional monarchies where the private and public domains were inextricably linked.  During the campaign, he combined "public" appearances involving formal campaign speeches, with equally "public" appearances to promote his businesses.  Both were covered by the press and both serves the same purpose of promoting himself, his charasmatic image and his brand.  All the one and the same.  Everything we have seen since indicates that will continue.  He has no plan to separate from his business interests, other than to symbolically hand those over to the very same children that are his most valued informal advisers as President.  That's not avoidance of conflicts, that's an institutionalization of conflicts.

Given that context, it takes ostrich like feats of credulity to see no issues, when before he even steps foot in office we observe:
+ the Abe incident
+ the Macri incident
+ foreign government representatives telling the press that they are staying in Trump's DC hotel to curry favor
+ lobbying Farage about the wind farm next to his Scottish golf course
+ Meeting in the middle of the transition with his kids and Indian business partners about an RE deal in Mumbai
+ the recent revelation that the Trump organization met Taiwanese officials in September to explore development projects
+ Trump's ongoing labor dispute in his Las Vegas Hotel, while he is on the verge of apppointing an anti-union fast food exec as Sec of Labor, and will soon have the opportunity to fill open position on the NRLB.

I'm sure I'm missing some.  And that's just what the press has been able to pick up on.

[Legbiter]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/07/us-steel-wants-to-accelerate-investments-bring-back-jobs-ceo-says.html

#trumpeffect

The New CEO play. Those kinds of first impressions will determine how much support and political capital he has for his entire term.  And they fit his brand seamlessly.

[The Minsky Moment]

we know trump sticks with people he trusts and wants them around him.

It's good to be the king.

it's a big accusation to argue the primary purpose behind the move was to line his family's pockets,

That's not the accusation.  The claim is that he is unable to recognize any distinction between what is good for the country and what is good for Donald J Trump and his progeny. 

[MadImmortalMan]

we know trump sticks with people he trusts and wants them around him. I'm saying the evidence at this point offers valid interpretations ffor why he brought ivanka to that meeting that do not involve him intending to influence some deal ivanka was working out with a japanese company. it's a big accusation to argue the primary purpose behind the move was to line his family's pockets, and the evidence is insufficient to support that accusation. it's possible that was his intended purpose, but the original claim was not discussing possibilities; it asserted it as a fact.

Look at the situation the guy is in. He's president-elect. For his whole life he's been able to act on his own judgment and then suddenly the whole Washington influence armada is swarming all over him. It's no surprise he'd want to keep a few people from his past life that he knows are actually trustworthy and loyal to him and not K Street. I would do that in every meeting just to make sure the real people in the room aren't outnumbered by the lobbyists.

[LaCroix]

I can observe a simple fact - Trump himself makes no distinction between private and public interest.  That is another way in which he resembles traditional monarchies where the private and public domains were inextricably linked.  During the campaign, he combined "public" appearances involving formal campaign speeches, with equally "public" appearances to promote his businesses.  Both were covered by the press and both serves the same purpose of promoting himself, his charasmatic image and his brand.  All the one and the same.  Everything we have seen since indicates that will continue.  He has no plan to separate from his business interests, other than to symbolically hand those over to the very same children that are his most valued informal advisers as President.  That's not avoidance of conflicts, that's an institutionalization of conflicts.

Given that context, it takes ostrich like feats of credulity to see no issues, when before he even steps foot in office we observe:
+ the Abe incident
+ the Macri incident
+ foreign government representatives telling the press that they are staying in Trump's DC hotel to curry favor
+ lobbying Farage about the wind farm next to his Scottish golf course
+ Meeting in the middle of the transition with his kids and Indian business partners about an RE deal in Mumbai
+ the recent revelation that the Trump organization met Taiwanese officials in September to explore development projects
+ Trump's ongoing labor dispute in his Las Vegas Hotel, while he is on the verge of apppointing an anti-union fast food exec as Sec of Labor, and will soon have the opportunity to fill open position on the NRLB.

I'm sure I'm missing some.  And that's just what the press has been able to pick up on.

many of these were before he was elected. I don't think he really thought he'd win the presidency, so his empire was really his main concern. he's now won, and until concrete evidence surfaces that his main purpose is to grow his empire rather than to lead the country, it's speculation and assumptions. some are willing to damn him before he begins, but I'm waiting awhile until we see more. and, if he is/does what you say he is/will do, then it'll be very clear fairly early on what he's doing. and the public will damn him for that

[The Minsky Moment]

I would do that in every meeting just to make sure the real people in the room aren't outnumbered by the lobbyists.

Except that in his case the "real people" are other real estate magnates (LeFrak and others), private equity titans (Poulsen), greenmailers (Icahn), vulture investors (Ross) etc.  This isn't like the Charles Grodin character in "Dave."  These are guys with big interests of their own, who lobby in their own right.