What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Admiral Yi]

I predict that the progressive left will stop calling deals like this one corporate welfare.

[CountDeMoney]

Except it is complete bullshit.

Trump claimed that he would keep jobs in America by threatening to impose high tariffs on companies that export them.

But he didn't do that here, he just gave carrier a sweetheart deal in return for them agreeing to give him a PR "win".

So he just subsidized carrier with more deficit.

Yeah, and not every company can be threatened like Carrier's parent conpany.  United Technologies owns Pratt & Whitney and Otis Elevator. And $24 billion in DOD contracts awarded sonce 2007.

So yeah, they can sweat a 1,000 low-tech, soon-to-be-automated jobs in Dumbfuckistan for 18 months. Kudos to Trump for a Twitter win.  By the time he forgets about it, UT will go through with what they wanted to do: pay Mexicans to make in a day what Hooiser mouthbreathers make in an hour.

Or, even funnier, just sell of Carrier.  UT sold Sikorsky just for the LOLs, for fuck's sake.

[The Minsky Moment]

We don't really know exactly what the deal is or if there is a "deal" at all.  Even the people at the Indiana development board haven't seen it or been told the specifics.  All that is known for certain is that Carrier is getting the go ahead to move 1300 jobs to Mexico.  The remaining 800 positions are staying in the US for the time being, but it is unknown what enforceable commitment exists to keep them there.

[grumbler]

This article just basically says I'm right. Indiana offered Carrier a deal before this deal, about $700,000 in tax relief, that was turned down. After Trump got involved Carrier agreed to keep most of the jobs (1000/1400) at one of the two factories, accepting the same deal from Indiana they had turned down months before. Suggestion being Carrier realized $65m in cost savings just isn't worth being on the enemies list of a guy as vindictive as Trump.

So, Trump got involved, Carrier still decided to send 1,000 jobs to Mexico, and Trump gets credit for "saving all those jobs?"

And the right still bays at the moon about how the press is so anti-Trump?

I am utterly unsurprised, by the way, that Mike Pence's Indiana cronies insist that this is the same deal Carrier turned down before.  I don't know whether it is, or not, but I do know that they have to imply that it is (as the Democrats there have to imply that it isn't).  The news story cited here is meaningless..

[CountDeMoney]

And now everybody can threaten to move their shit overseas, and get concessions out the ass.

#AlDavisBusinessSchool #JustBlackmailBaby

[PJL]

Reminds me of the Nissan 'deal' done here a few weeks back re Brexit

[Jacob]

This article just basically says I'm right. Indiana offered Carrier a deal before this deal, about $700,000 in tax relief, that was turned down. After Trump got involved Carrier agreed to keep most of the jobs (1000/1400) at one of the two factories, accepting the same deal from Indiana they had turned down months before. Suggestion being Carrier realized $65m in cost savings just isn't worth being on the enemies list of a guy as vindictive as Trump.

Or that Trump offered them other stuff to make it worth it... $65M in cost savings in return for some multiple thereof in tax savings, contracts, subsidies or combination.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think you guys are assuming more than is reasonable, companies pay a lot of money to make "political" problems go away all the time. $65m to make the President-elect happy and not inclined to fuck with you is relatively cheap. I doubt there is any tremendously out of norms deal for Carrier.

The bigger issue is that it's really just random bad luck (from Carrier's perspective) this particular plant closing became national news during the campaign. There are many thousands of jobs being off-shored every year, and most don't get front page news, and thus won't get this kind of attention. Even if they did, it's not likely the President is going to be able to spend time negotiating with every company doing this. One off deals like these are not a solution to the collapsing availability of good paying, low-skill blue collar jobs in the rust belt.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Well and the estimated savings of moving to Mexico was $65m or something, for 2,000. They're still relocating more than half, so the actual "costs" of making Trump go away, to Carrier, are probably like $30m.

[The Minsky Moment]

I am utterly unsurprised, by the way, that Mike Pence's Indiana cronies insist that this is the same deal Carrier turned down before.  I don't know whether it is, or not, but I do know that they have to imply that it is (as the Democrats there have to imply that it isn't).  The news story cited here is meaningless..

Let's say for the sake of argument that it's true - that the sole reason Carrier backed down is because Trump threatened to retaliate by hurting UT's Pentagon contracts.  Does that make it better or worse?  Worse I think.

I'm no expert in Pentagon procurement but my understanding is that it is desgined in part to minimize the potential of skewing outcomes based on political favoritism and paybacks.  I don't think the POTUS should be in the business of threatening private companies with improper use of executive power.  If Obama tried that kind of stuff, the self-proclaimed "constitutionalists" on the right would have a fit, and with some good reason.  And let's say UT or some future company tries to call that bluff.  How does Trump follow through?  "Sorry air force, no Pratt & Whitney engines for your new F-35s, back to the drawing board.  And forget about those spare parts to keep the rest of the fleet flying."

[11B4V]

It will come out soon enough.

[Valmy]

Yeah, terrible to see jobs kept in America, asshats like you deserve Trump.

I mean how he got the jobs to stay, not the staying itself

If it works hey I will not be complaining.

[Valmy]

If Obama tried that kind of stuff, the self-proclaimed "constitutionalists" on the right would have a fit, and with some good reason. 

All the Constitutionalists and small government states rights dudes were sure quiet when Bush was rapidly expanding Federal powers. But they have been so shrill over the past eight years, to the point of forming a rather large caucus just for that purpose, I wonder if they will vanish a second time.

But let us all remember how all my buds on the left sure got quiet when Obama expanded and established Bush's civil rights violations. That sure sucked.

[CountDeMoney]

But let us all remember how all my buds on the left sure got quiet when Obama expanded and established Bush's civil rights violations. That sure sucked.

Harvesting Evildoers^TM by the bushel with drones?  Constitutionally righteous.

[Ed Anger]

And now, the God Emperor has those expanded powers. Purge the Muslim.