What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[The Minsky Moment]

If I were to put a positive spin on this, my hope is that on critical issues long ignored, like infrastructure, Trump could be one of the people to actually get something done. He has an incredible mandate. And frankly, he's more popular with the Republican base than most of the congress critters, if they block him on things like infrastructure, they could suffer real consequences. If we had a major infrastructure investment program, that could be a wonderful thing for the country. My hope is that he will listen to wise council, and will not levy disastrous and destructive economic tariffs on major trading partners. I hope he takes a hard line on China and Russia, and I think in ways his personality could aid us in the constant game of poker that is foreign relations. I hope that he doesn't pass his disastrous tax plan that will pauper the government and bankrupt the country.

One can hope but . . . The GOP is going to push tax cuts, and the Speaker is a deficit hawk.  Trump ran on tax cuts so it will be hard for him to resist.  And this old school GOP Congress has never shown much interest in infrastructure.  Its hard to see this happening unless Trump decides to commit a lot of political capital to it.  And the Heritage/Breitbart types he seems to be surrounding himself with for "counsel" aren't going to help.

Trade on the other hand, is the one issue it will be very difficult to walk back on, especially as it now appears to have been a key issue in his victory. 

I'd love to see a Trump adminstration that keeps trade going and builds bridges but the probabilities look otherwise.

[frunk]

I'd love to see a Trump adminstration that keeps trade going and builds bridges but the probabilities look otherwise.

Once trade barriers are raised and he institutes a haircut on the debt I'm sure we won't need that much infrastructure.

[Syt]

And this old school GOP Congress has never shown much interest in infrastructure.  Its hard to see this happening unless Trump decides to commit a lot of political capital to it.

I had a feeling - more so given his background in real estate - that this is one of the few topics on his agenda that he genuinely cares about as more than just a talking point to get attention.

[alfred russel]

I think there are some issues that could bring down the GOP rather quickly.

Obamacare is #1. The party and trump ran on repealing it, but I think that could be toxic.

Putting Clinton in jail was hopefully just campaign bs, but if it wasn't the administration will take a dark turn very quickly.

Immigration is obviously a policy tightrope; don't push for restrictions and the Trump supporters will be alienated, but push too hard and people will be in the streets.

[MadImmortalMan]

Obamacare is #1. The party and trump ran on repealing it, but I think that could be toxic.

That's too hard. They can't do it. Not without some incredible gymnastics.

[Admiral Yi]

I find myself unable to begin the task of imagining how Donald will actually *govern.*

[OttoVonBismarck]

If I were to put a positive spin on this, my hope is that on critical issues long ignored, like infrastructure, Trump could be one of the people to actually get something done. He has an incredible mandate. And frankly, he's more popular with the Republican base than most of the congress critters, if they block him on things like infrastructure, they could suffer real consequences. If we had a major infrastructure investment program, that could be a wonderful thing for the country. My hope is that he will listen to wise council, and will not levy disastrous and destructive economic tariffs on major trading partners. I hope he takes a hard line on China and Russia, and I think in ways his personality could aid us in the constant game of poker that is foreign relations. I hope that he doesn't pass his disastrous tax plan that will pauper the government and bankrupt the country.

One can hope but . . . The GOP is going to push tax cuts, and the Speaker is a deficit hawk.  Trump ran on tax cuts so it will be hard for him to resist.  And this old school GOP Congress has never shown much interest in infrastructure.  Its hard to see this happening unless Trump decides to commit a lot of political capital to it.  And the Heritage/Breitbart types he seems to be surrounding himself with for "counsel" aren't going to help.

Trade on the other hand, is the one issue it will be very difficult to walk back on, especially as it now appears to have been a key issue in his victory. 

I'd love to see a Trump adminstration that keeps trade going and builds bridges but the probabilities look otherwise.

Yeah, I was talking to some really conservative Republican friends of mine last night and was making largely the same argument--there's some big gulfs between what the congressional Republicans want and what Trump has promised. Free trade is a mixed bag, I'm obviously a huge fan, as are the traditional "Wall Street" Republicans, but I think guys like Ryan aren't going to get too much in Trump's way on trade. It's obviously something they could suffer a lot of harm from blocking. I don't think he pulls us out of NAFTA or puts up 45% tariffs against China, but I do think he's going to push hard on both trading partners and something will come out of it that increases the costs of doing business between us and our NAFTA partners and us and China, which will have deleterious economic affects.

Infrastructure is hard because like you say, you have to raise taxes to pay for it, and the major refrain of the Freedom Caucus and guys like Ryan is that they don't want to spend money on anything. Trump also more or less promised he's not touching Medicare or Social Security, and various reforms of those systems would be part of any serious budgetary overhaul Ryan would want to be part of, so it'll be interesting to see how it all works out. I can't see Ryan signing off on $1T deficit so that Trump can avoid making any serious cuts to entitlements while pumping $300bn/yr into infrastructure. But who knows, Trump has a mandate, he's going to get some of what he wants through Congress.

[Valmy]

Maybe Trump is hoping all those tariffs from the trade wars will fund the infrastructure? Damn we should have a name for that scheme...some kind of system of an American sort.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, Obamacare will be repealed but most of it will be left intact. Exchanges won't get shut down or etc. Why do I know this? The GOP already released papers on their repeal plan, it was basically "keep everything people like about Obamacare but remove the individual mandate and the higher tax on high-income individuals", this is because politically taking insurance away from 10m or so people is political suicide. I mean Trump even said in the primary debates he would repeal Obamacare but he's not  going to leave people high and dry. Trump has been pretty consistent on not seriously wanting to cut entitlements which Obamacare insurance can be viewed as. Of course, the Republican plan creates a very impossible system, when you remove the individual mandate the risk pools are even more difficult to make money on, and when you remove the tax that helped fund the subsidies you just create a lot more red ink.

[Fate]

Obamacare is #1. The party and trump ran on repealing it, but I think that could be toxic.

That's too hard. They can't do it. Not without some incredible gymnastics.

All he needs is 50 votes in the Senate. Reconciliation can gut a lot of the plan.

[Admiral Yi]

I made a good bit on trump puts, but I expected more than this.

Did you sell off before the market opened?

[MadImmortalMan]

.some kind of system of an American sort.

[Valmy]

.some kind of system of an American sort.

Yeah! I knew somebody would get my obscure 19th century American politics joke here

[The Brain]

The trains will run on time.

[The Minsky Moment]

Yeah, Obamacare will be repealed but most of it will be left intact. Exchanges won't get shut down or etc. Why do I know this? The GOP already released papers on their repeal plan, it was basically "keep everything people like about Obamacare but remove the individual mandate and the higher tax on high-income individuals", this is because politically taking insurance away from 10m or so people is political suicide. I mean Trump even said in the primary debates he would repeal Obamacare but he's not  going to leave people high and dry. Trump has been pretty consistent on not seriously wanting to cut entitlements which Obamacare insurance can be viewed as. Of course, the Republican plan creates a very impossible system, when you remove the individual mandate the risk pools are even more difficult to make money on, and when you remove the tax that helped fund the subsidies you just create a lot more red ink.

Agreed. Totally unworkable.  There is no "Replace" in Repeal and Replace.
ACA is going to a big problem for this new administration/Congress.  I don't see how they can square the circle.