What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[viper37]

Situation normal: all fucked up.

Now granted people who lived around the border in the pre-1980s do talk about how it used to be much nicer before all the drug gangs and everything. But even then everybody was hand wringing about all the people slipping in.

We have a different definition of normal.  I can't remember a time in my life when several thousand people per day filed asylum applications.

You remember wrong then.  There were more refugees/asylum seekers in 1980 than now.

The numbers appear higher through the 80s than now, actually.  It only lowered in the late 90s/early 2000s.  Under a hated Democratic President, it seems.  Than rose under a very loved Republican President.

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/refugees-and-asylees-united-states-2022

[Josquius]

It's one of those things though. Point out numbers are high - see, the dems are letting everyone in.
Point out the numbers are low - see, the dems can't even keep track of the border and let everyone in.

It strikes me a good example of how the right can live in a different reality with their media saying totally different things that this one, not an issue reported in the slightest elsewhere, has built up so much with them

[Admiral Yi]

Situation normal: all fucked up.

Now granted people who lived around the border in the pre-1980s do talk about how it used to be much nicer before all the drug gangs and everything. But even then everybody was hand wringing about all the people slipping in.

We have a different definition of normal.  I can't remember a time in my life when several thousand people per day filed asylum applications.

You remember wrong then.  There were more refugees/asylum seekers in 1980 than now.

The numbers appear higher through the 80s than now, actually.  It only lowered in the late 90s/early 2000s.  Under a hated Democratic President, it seems.  Than rose under a very loved Republican President.

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/refugees-and-asylees-united-states-2022

Your article says asylum data only goes back to FY 2021.

[Sheilbh]

So... Heil Trump?
Between that and France is the world fucked?

Dust off your Spitfires, once more the UK shall stand alone against the forces of darkness.

They're not all the same (I think Trump, Le Pen and Meloni are dangerous to democracy), but it's fairly plausible that by 2027 the Western G7 leaders will be Trump, Le Pen, Meloni, Merz, Poilievre...and Starmer. The last hold out for a sort of social liberalism/social democracy

In all seriousness though I don't know what Britain should/can do if we're faced with Trump and Le Pen. I imagine (hope) it's something that civil servants in foreign ministries around the world are trying to work out right now. Obviously all countries would need to work with them but it'll be challenging - and I fear real end of the west stuff.

[Zanza]

As much as I dislike Merz, I don't see him as far right-populist as Trump, Meloni or Le Pen. And it is not clear that he will be the candidate for chancellorship yet.

[Sheilbh]

Agree - I think there is an important line between people I think are a threat to democracy or on the far-right and those who aren't. I think Trump, Le Pen and Meloni are - but, say, Merz and Poilievre aren't.

I think it matters less but also not sure populism is a relevant divide there. Not sure either Le Pen or Meloni are particularly populist, while Trump is but so is Poilievre. I think it's part of reading everything through Trump which I'm not sure is helpful.

[Zanza]

Merz communicates in a populist way by simplifying complex topics into slogans, pushing the Overton window etc.

But in his heart, he is just a reactionary who wants to have Kohl era back.

[grumbler]

Situation normal: all fucked up.

Now granted people who lived around the border in the pre-1980s do talk about how it used to be much nicer before all the drug gangs and everything. But even then everybody was hand wringing about all the people slipping in.

We have a different definition of normal.  I can't remember a time in my life when several thousand people per day filed asylum applications.

You remember wrong then.  There were more refugees/asylum seekers in 1980 than now.

The numbers appear higher through the 80s than now, actually.  It only lowered in the late 90s/early 2000s.  Under a hated Democratic President, it seems.  Than rose under a very loved Republican President.

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/refugees-and-asylees-united-states-2022

Your article says asylum data only goes back to FY 2021.

Actually, it says that the most recent (official) data is from 2021.

[viper37]

Situation normal: all fucked up.

Now granted people who lived around the border in the pre-1980s do talk about how it used to be much nicer before all the drug gangs and everything. But even then everybody was hand wringing about all the people slipping in.

We have a different definition of normal.  I can't remember a time in my life when several thousand people per day filed asylum applications.

You remember wrong then.  There were more refugees/asylum seekers in 1980 than now.

The numbers appear higher through the 80s than now, actually.  It only lowered in the late 90s/early 2000s.  Under a hated Democratic President, it seems.  Than rose under a very loved Republican President.

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/refugees-and-asylees-united-states-2022

Your article says asylum data only goes back to FY 2021.

Figure 1:
Annual Refugee Resettlement Ceiling and Number of Refugees Admitted to the United States, FY 1980-2023*

Obviously, official data takes time to be compiled.  But you said you never saw such high number while you were alive and the figures disprove your statement.

They can't be higher than the ceiling and the ceiling was higher in 1980.

And while we don't have official data for 2022 and 2023, they are unlikely to be 5x higher than provisional numbers.

[Jacob]

Yeah I'm not a fan of Poilievre, but I don't expect that he'll undermine Canadian democracy. He's not in the same league as Trump at all.

[Admiral Yi]

Figure 1:
Annual Refugee Resettlement Ceiling and Number of Refugees Admitted to the United States, FY 1980-2023*

Obviously, official data takes time to be compiled.  But you said you never saw such high number while you were alive and the figures disprove your statement.

They can't be higher than the ceiling and the ceiling was higher in 1980.

And while we don't have official data for 2022 and 2023, they are unlikely to be 5x higher than provisional numbers.

Refugees are the people who live in camps until we agree to take some.  Asylum seekers are the people who show up at the border and say they want asylum.  I've been talking about asylum seekers.

[grumbler]

Figure 1:
Annual Refugee Resettlement Ceiling and Number of Refugees Admitted to the United States, FY 1980-2023*

Obviously, official data takes time to be compiled.  But you said you never saw such high number while you were alive and the figures disprove your statement.

They can't be higher than the ceiling and the ceiling was higher in 1980.

And while we don't have official data for 2022 and 2023, they are unlikely to be 5x higher than provisional numbers.

Refugees are the people who live in camps until we agree to take some.  Asylum seekers are the people who show up at the border and say they want asylum.  I've been talking about asylum seekers.

Asylum seekers are refugees.  The process for seeking asylum is outlined in the United States Refugee Act of 1980. You are trying to draw a distinction without a difference.

[The Minsky Moment]

The law is straightforward. An alien who either enters the US or appears at the border and makes an asylum claim cannot be removed without a hearing.  The President and the Executive Branch are bound by that law.  Donald Trump did not have some magic power.  He had a COVID crisis.  Under COVID, entries were suspended by operation of the laws governing medical national emergencies.  Once the national emergency ended, the Executive lost the legal authority to bar asylum applicant admission.

Thus, there is no way to slow asylum applications without legislation from Congress. The Biden executive order is illegal and should not stand up to scrutiny if the courts are honest and apply the law.

[Oexmelin]

But what if Biden gives a gratuity to the judges?

[Josquius]

I don't know about in the US but in the UK context there is a clear legal distinction between asylum seekers, people who have entered the country in order to seek asylum, and refugees, people whose applications have been accepted.
AFAIK this is international.
Though of course the word refugee is very commonly used as a cover all for everyone rather than just for those with official legal refugee status.

And yeah. We're talking about international law here. Anyone has the right to apply for asylum in any country. A frequent moan of the fascists in the UK is that they passed through a bunch of 'safe' countries to reach Britain, but the law carries no such restrictions. Ironically EU law did say this but still they wanted to brexit in part because of a phobia of refugees. Divs. Anyway.

The clear solution lies in a reform to international refugee law. Why force people to make these dangerous voyages across half the world to apply for asylum status. People should be able to apply for asylum status anywhere from anywhere else.
But nobody is interested in real solutions. This particular (brown-) human suffering is too useful a political football.