WW1: German victory in France = peace?

[The Brain]

If Germany had conquered France in 1914, would the war have ended? How about 1918?

1914: Russia still in the war but the US still out. Not yet years of bitter bloodshed.

1918: Russia out but the US in. Lots of blood under the bridge.

What say you?

[Zoupa]

No and no.

[mongers]

If Germany had conquered France in 1914, would the war have ended? How about 1918?

1914: Russia still in the war but the US still out. Not yet years of bitter bloodshed.

1918: Russia out but the US in. Lots of blood under the bridge.

What say you?

Niall Ferguson had the 'answer' to this.

[LaCroix]

yes/no

[dps]

Eventually, yeah.

[jimmy olsen]

If they had reached Paris in '14? Don't see how the French would have survived that. Peace wouldn't be that harsh without all the blood that was later spilled.

Russia would fight on for a couple more years then collapse. Not sure what Britain would do.

[mongers]

If they had reached Paris in '14? Don't see how the French would have survived that. Peace wouldn't be that harsh without all the blood that was later spilled.

Russia would fight on for a couple more years then collapse. Not sure what Britain would do.

[/Timmay]

Ally with Germany and invade America. 

[/Timmay]

[Razgovory]

Ants.  Big ones.  On the Polish-Belorussian border.

[grumbler]

I think Russia would sue for peace with the fall of France.  There would be no hope of beating the CP, and France's surrender would give the Tsar a scapegoat for his inability to protect the Serbs.  Germany and Russia had no significant disputes between them and a great deal of commonality.  Germany could afford to give Russia a white peace, and Cousin Willie would probably insist on it.

[Tonitrus]

Though I wonder how AH and the Ottomans would make out.  Both would still have lots of unresolved internal problems...and I imagine a frustrated British Empire would probably still try and pick apart colonies from the Ottomans.  And Russia suing for peace might still well get knocked up by the Bolsheviks (if Germany lets Lenin go, anyway).

[The Brain]

If Germany had conquered France in 1914, would the war have ended? How about 1918?

1914: Russia still in the war but the US still out. Not yet years of bitter bloodshed.

1918: Russia out but the US in. Lots of blood under the bridge.

What say you?

Niall Ferguson had the 'answer' to this.

But his dog ate it?

[The Brain]

I know little about the British mindset in 1914. Was a long, lonely (one way or the other Russia would likely be out reasonably soon), total war a path that the UK government would take? Or even consider?  My impression is that waiting for the US to enter the war would have appeared a wee bit optimistic given the situation.

[Valmy]

Sure. And if Russia had not collapsed in the Gorlice-Tarnow offensive in 1915 the Allies probably wrap it up that year. Both sides had a chance for a knock-out blow in the first full year of the war and it didn't work out for various reasons. But this was WWI, all plans were destined to inevitably fail.

[Valmy]

Though I wonder how AH and the Ottomans would make out.  Both would still have lots of unresolved internal problems...and I imagine a frustrated British Empire would probably still try and pick apart colonies from the Ottomans.  And Russia suing for peace might still well get knocked up by the Bolsheviks (if Germany lets Lenin go, anyway).

I don't think a German puppet...er...allied Ottoman Empire is going to be picked apart by the British. Nor do I think a Russia not bled white by 1915 and 1916 would have collapsed the same way. The Tsar could just say the French let the Russians down.

[grumbler]

Sure. And if Russia had not collapsed in the Gorlice-Tarnow offensive in 1915 the Allies probably wrap it up that year. Both sides had a chance for a knock-out blow in the first full year of the war and it didn't work out for various reasons. But this was WWI, all plans were destined to inevitably fail.

Wait... what?  If the Russians hadn't been utterly defeated and routed, the Germans would have lost the war in 1915?  That's rather a bizarre claim, especially as the British and French didn't even launch any successful major attacks in 1915 and the British commander was fired at the end of the year.

Who, exactly, was going to defeat the CP in 1915?  Not the Russians (even if not routed, they would have been defeated), not the British, and not the French.  The Belgians?  Italy?