Coup attempt in Turkey

[Valmy]

SO how soon will it be for someone to claim that the US backed/sponsored/setup/masterminded/invented this coup?

People have already been claiming this was a CIA plot.

[Tamas]

SO how soon will it be for someone to claim that the US backed/sponsored/setup/masterminded/invented this coup?

Leading members of the Turkish government already do.

[Tamas]

By far the most plausible theory I have read so far is that this indeed was a pro-Gulenist plot, started in a haphazard fashion before they were ready, as they got wind of the pending mass arrests (that ended up happening post-coup).

This would explain:
-why it was teh lamest coup evah
-why it did not involve the whole military only part of it (remember, past military coups in Turkey were to protect/restore the secular state, not to enact Raz' dream Islamist Turkey)
-why Erdogan's men already had thousands of names ready to arrest, fire, or to have shot by a lone madman like just happened to an opposition vice-mayor in Istanbul.

[Berkut]

Turkey is a pretty hard diplomatic problem at this point. I don't know how the US should go about handling them.

There doesn't seem any good path forward from the US standpoint.

[Valmy]

Gulen pretty much disavowed it right away

I will ask around.

Or are you suggesting it was pro-Gulenist on their behalf?

[Valmy]

Turkey is a pretty hard diplomatic problem at this point. I don't know how the US should go about handling them.

There doesn't seem any good path forward from the US standpoint.

There isn't in any country in that region. It is hard to find good guys. Hell it is hard to find less bad guys.

[Duque de Bragança]

Turkey is a pretty hard diplomatic problem at this point. I don't know how the US should go about handling them.

There doesn't seem any good path forward from the US standpoint.

There isn't in any country in that region. It is hard to find good guys. Hell it is hard to find less bad guys.

But King Abdullah of Jordan appeared in Star Trek.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

SO how soon will it be for someone to claim that the US backed/sponsored/setup/masterminded/invented this coup?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12115045

[LaCroix]

the ball is in erdogan's court on this. if he goes full madman, there's a good chance turkey could be kicked out for violating NATO requirements re democracy. but I think he'd have to go pretty far for that to happen. aside from purging people he already planned to purge (albeit in a less extreme manner), he hasn't done much yet.

[Tamas]

Gulen pretty much disavowed it right away

I will ask around.

Or are you suggesting it was pro-Gulenist on their behalf?

Pretty much. If they had a network within the military, it makes sense they decided to activate it before they would be made disappear anyways. Sucks for all the foot soldiers they dragged into it, but in this scenario they didn't have too much to lose.

[Valmy]

Yep. My friends are in desperate danger. Even Tamas thinks they tried to commit a coup. Erdogan has done a wonderful job demonizing them.

[Tamas]

the ball is in erdogan's court on this. if he goes full madman, there's a good chance turkey could be kicked out for violating NATO requirements re democracy. but I think he'd have to go pretty far for that to happen. aside from purging people he already planned to purge (albeit in a less extreme manner), he hasn't done much yet.

Maybe NATO (by that I mean the US) will buy back his loyalties with the only thing Putin can't offer: free hand to enact his ambitions with an intervention in Syria.

[Valmy]

the ball is in erdogan's court on this. if he goes full madman, there's a good chance turkey could be kicked out for violating NATO requirements re democracy. but I think he'd have to go pretty far for that to happen. aside from purging people he already planned to purge (albeit in a less extreme manner), he hasn't done much yet.

Maybe NATO (by that I mean the US) will buy back his loyalties with the only thing Putin can't offer: free hand to enact his ambitions with an intervention in Syria.

Huh. I thought we were hoping he would do that years ago but his army just sat there on the border doing nothing.

[Tamas]

Yep. My friends are in desperate danger. Even Tamas thinks they tried to commit a coup. Erdogan has done a wonderful job demonizing them.

Hey, what do I know.

But you have it wrong: It seems quite obvious that whoever is in the way of Erdogan and his circles have been named a Gulenist and removed. If they are truly Gulenist, that's just an added bonus but judging by how every single other dictatorship has worked, like, ever, I don't think they care too much if the allegations are true on an individual basis. The allegations are tools.

[The Minsky Moment]

By far the most plausible theory I have read so far is that this indeed was a pro-Gulenist plot, started in a haphazard fashion before they were ready, as they got wind of the pending mass arrests (that ended up happening post-coup).

While it did not involve the whole military it did involve a significant part of it and there were some senior people involved.
My understanding had been that while the Gulenist movement had penetrated the judiciary and non-military security forces, their presence in the army and air force was negligible.