The Plan to Avert Our Post-Antibiotic Apocalypse

[CountDeMoney]

You don't think the movement of literally hundreds of millions of Chinese from farming to have, medium, and light industry, the rise of Chinese manufacturing and export, massive infrastructure projects, the explosion of online trading, the growth in sophisticated services aimed at the internal market, and a massive movement of population from the countryside to the cities and the attendant construction boom has nothing to do with China's economic growth? It's all based on stock, financing, and housing bubbles?

You're forgetting how the concerted and targeted national effort since 1991 of the wholesale theft of trade secrets, intellectual property data, confidential business and military intelligence resulting in the largest transfer of wealth in human history didn't hurt, either.

[Jacob]

All the industry and infrastructure America built in the 20s was real as well, that didn't stop mismangement from crashing the economy.

Sure. But that's a different argument than saying the sustained growth over the last decade plus is based on one or more bubbles.

[The Minsky Moment]

You're forgetting how the concerted and targeted national effort since 1991 of the wholesale theft of trade secrets, intellectual property data, confidential business and military intelligence resulting in the largest transfer of wealth in human history didn't hurt, either.

In the literature that is called catch-up growth. 

[The Minsky Moment]

The debt problem also has to be seen in context.  The debt is owed primarily by municipalities and SEOs, it is owed to state-owned or controlled banks.  I.e. the debt for the most part is paper obligations owed by one part of the state to another part of the state.  That doesn't mean it could be cancelled out without fallout but it is a different sort of problem than say Argentina 2001

[Admiral Yi]

The debt problem also has to be seen in context.  The debt is owed primarily by municipalities and SEOs, it is owed to state-owned or controlled banks.  I.e. the debt for the most part is paper obligations owed by one part of the state to another part of the state.  That doesn't mean it could be cancelled out without fallout but it is a different sort of problem than say Argentina 2001

And the banks in turn owe money to depositors, who are private individuals.

[The Minsky Moment]

And the banks in turn owe money to depositors, who are private individuals.

That's actually a strength not a weakness.  Wholesale funding would be a bigger problem.  Depositors have nowhere else to go.  And if they did try to run, the government could either suspend or limit cash payout or just have the central bank extend a loan.

[Admiral Yi]

That's actually a strength not a weakness.  Wholesale funding would be a bigger problem.  Depositors have nowhere else to go.  And if they did try to run, the government could either suspend or limit cash payout or just have the central bank extend a loan.

Leaving aside the relative merits of wholesale and retail funding, my point was that massive default on bank loans is not just an issue of rearranging entries in a government ledger.

[Monoriu]

There are actual people who have bought the bonds of Chinese real estate developers