JOHN McAFEE: Here's why US intelligence is failing

[viper37]

Long article

He does raise interesting points, but I'm not sure he has a complete picture either.

Sure, you can predict a lot of things by analyzing patterns in communications, as outlined in his document.  But any such kind of model has its flaws, wether a flaw in the model itself or a human error in interpreting the data.

I believe you would still require human intel to validate such data.  And besides, if you're dealing with low-tech people, like Al-Queida in Bin Laden's days that weren't using any cellphones, you are essentially fucked if you rely only on data mining.

The US, and other agencies, are most likely not investing enough in this kind of intelligence, but to say they should rely solely on that is taking it a step too far, imho.

[CountDeMoney]

The Chinese, in stark contrast, by their very actions and through what hackers on the Dark Web have gathered, couldn't care less about what individuals are saying to one another or directing one another to do. They view governments and other agencies as entities that have an embodied existence of their own and that they manifest actions and movements as a single organism.

If this view is correct, then data of a higher order is required. This is similar to the way physicians, when diagnosing a patient's ailment, do not concern themselves with the chemical communications between individual cells in the patient's body; they concern themselves with symptoms that transcend anything a few cells could manifest — body temperature, coughing, sneezing, internal bleeding, etc.

The Chinese, then, must be concerned with metaphorically similar signs within governments and agencies. These signs are called "patterns."

Interesting metaphor, but Chinese strategic thought in regards to intelligence-gathering has never been about identifying patterns, nuances, or any other such themes-within-a-meta-theme.  They have yet to approach it at such levels of sophistication.

[MadImmortalMan]

I haven't read it yet, but is this the same John McAfee who wrote the antivirus software and then went hiding from the feds in Belize?

[CountDeMoney]

No.

He was on the run from Belize.   

Totally different guy.

[Razgovory]

No.

He was on the run from Belize.   

Totally different guy.

The one that makes drugs and shoves them up his ass.  Why would we take his advice on anything?

[viper37]

I haven't read it yet, but is this the same John McAfee who wrote the antivirus software and then went hiding from the feds in Belize?

the same paranoid guy, yes.
Don't know if it's true about the drugs, he says he it ain't, and there's been no charges laid on him.

[Brazen]

I believe you would still require human intel to validate such data.  And besides, if you're dealing with low-tech people, like Al-Queida in Bin Laden's days that weren't using any cellphones, you are essentially fucked if you rely only on data mining.

Data mining and predictive analysis was invaluable in analysing and dismantling Bin Laden's network (including cellphone traffic), and combined with extensive surveillance helped track him down. Obviously capturing and torturing his trusted courier extracted the last details. So I guess that's human intel verifying the data.

[garbon]

No.

He was on the run from Belize.   

Totally different guy.

The one that makes drugs and shoves them up his ass.  Why would we take his advice on anything?

He is running for President.

[viper37]

I believe you would still require human intel to validate such data.  And besides, if you're dealing with low-tech people, like Al-Queida in Bin Laden's days that weren't using any cellphones, you are essentially fucked if you rely only on data mining.

Data mining and predictive analysis was invaluable in analysing and dismantling Bin Laden's network (including cellphone traffic), and combined with extensive surveillance helped track him down. Obviously capturing and torturing his trusted courier extracted the last details. So I guess that's human intel verifying the data.

thanks for the info

[The Brain]

I believe you would still require human intel to validate such data.  And besides, if you're dealing with low-tech people, like Al-Queida in Bin Laden's days that weren't using any cellphones, you are essentially fucked if you rely only on data mining.

Data mining and predictive analysis was invaluable in analysing and dismantling Bin Laden's network (including cellphone traffic), and combined with extensive surveillance helped track him down. Obviously capturing and torturing his trusted courier extracted the last details. So I guess that's human intel verifying the data.

You don't always have a decade.

[alfred russel]

He does raise interesting points, but I'm not sure he has a complete picture either.

So many words, but not a single mention of common core.