Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yeah, I suppose that if Labour get "all" of the seats reform might become irresistible.

[Gups]

It would be so wonderful if they did 

Though having a majority that large would probably be bad for Labour. I always remember my father remarking that in tory pocket boroughs all the bastards were in that party and vice versa in labour pocket boroughs. It also might explain the corruption that so often takes place in Liverpool, a place that might actually benefit from having a few conservatives on the city council 

So, if the tories do get obliterated I hope that someone else, presumably the lib-dems, gets enough seats to form an effective opposition.

Labour has a big majority in Liverpool but doesn't completely dominate - 60 seats out of 90. Libs Dems have had several periods in control, most recently 1998-2010

[Josquius]

Yes, was thinking of saying this in my last reply. Its a key reason the ConDem coalition was so awful.
As much as some people might hate them, they are a far more preferable opposition to the tories, especially in the tories current guise, and were presenting good opposition for labour in progressive areas. Rebuilding this trust has been a slow game- brexit being a big opportunity for them.

[Savonarola]

Meanwhile Treasury is working up a plan that would delay HS2 until 2045 (12 years after it's supposed to open)

Or, as we say in the rail industry, "Well ahead of schedule." 

[Duque de Bragança]

Meanwhile Treasury is working up a plan that would delay HS2 until 2045 (12 years after it's supposed to open)

Or, as we say in the rail industry, "Well ahead of schedule." 

Let me guess, and 12 years more to get it to Josquius' Norf? 

[Josquius]

Meanwhile Treasury is working up a plan that would delay HS2 until 2045 (12 years after it's supposed to open)

Or, as we say in the rail industry, "Well ahead of schedule." 

Let me guess, and 12 years more to get it to Josquius' Norf? 

That depends entirely on when the revolution happens.

[Sheilbh]

Labour has a big majority in Liverpool but doesn't completely dominate - 60 seats out of 90. Libs Dems have had several periods in control, most recently 1998-2010

Always blows my mind that Liverpool had a Tory council in the 70s and until the early 80s.

I think back then (and earlier) there was more of a sectarian divide with Tories being unionist, Protestant and more Lancastrian while Labour were more Irish and Catholic. But still just unimaginable now.

Also the 80s in general transformed things in Liverpool politically as well as  economically - my parents still talk about Shirley Williams winning Crosby for the SDP because it was the safest Tory seat in the city. They won it back but I think at council and parliamentary elections there is a shift in Liverpool in Tory areas to SDP and Alliance.

Plus Liverpool's a place with weird political hangovers - so there's Militant Labour councillors well into the 90s. Even now I think Liverpool is one of the only places in the country where the continuity/non-Alliance Liberal Party still exists and has councillors (some of them are very good). I think there's one ward where all the councillors are Liberals.

[Sheilbh]

Opened Twitter, and I see Simon Jenkins has written a column again
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/09/zelenskiy-jets-west-ukraine-battlefield-peace

[Jacob]

Opened Twitter, and I see Simon Jenkins has written a column again
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/09/zelenskiy-jets-west-ukraine-battlefield-peace

Great column!

I mean, I didn't read anything except the headline, but given Jenkins' track record I take it as an indication that Ukraine will receive Western jets in the not too distant future

[Sheilbh]

I'm spending a lot of time trying to unpack what this could possibly mean:

To grant Ukraine's request carries a huge risk – better to help it gain battlefield advantage as a basis for peace talks

[mongers]

I'm spending a lot of time trying to unpack what this could possibly mean:

To grant Ukraine's request carries a huge risk – better to help it gain battlefield advantage as a basis for peace talks

Maybe he's suggesting the Ukrainians continue with their resource limited success on the battlefield vs, in his eyes, risking going all out to recover all of Ukraine incl.Crimea because of the new 'offensive' tanks and aircrat given to Ukraine?? :unsuree:


NB I too have not readthe article.

[Barrister]

Obviously it won't be quite this one sided - but the latest state of pollling in the UK

Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention:

🌹 LAB: 49% (+16)
🌳 CON: 23% (-22)

MRP Seat Projection:

🌹 LAB: 509 (+306)
🎗� SNP: 50 (+2)
🌳 CON: 45 (-320)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 27 Jan - 5 Feb.
Changes w/ GE2019.

Starting to see more articles wondering if the Tories are going to go the way of Canada's.

Go the way of Canada's?

Oh - you mean 1993 when they won 2 seats?

Remember though that in the 90s the old PC Party was largely supplanted by two separate parties - the Bloc Quebecois which took the formerly PC soft nationalist voters, and the Reform Party which took its western and Ontario small-C conservative votes.

Even if crushed in the next election, the Tories are bound to bounce back unless some other right-of-centre party can supplant them.

[Barrister]

Yeah, I suppose that if Labour get "all" of the seats reform might become irresistible.

Never.  As soon as a party gets a big majority, why somehow miraculously they see the benefits of the current system!

Just look what happened with Trudeau's promise that 2015 would be the last election under First-past-the-post!

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. Blair promised a referendum electoral reform - in part because he believed in Lord Jenkins' theory that the story of British politics in the 20th century was progress stalled because the left-liberal vote was split between Labour and Liberals (then Lib Dems). Of course he did a bit of the splitting when he helped set up the SDP.

In the end Blair got Lord Jenkins to write a report on a electoral reform which recommended AV+. Blair thanked him for his work and never mentioned it again

If the electoral system delivers a massive majority to Labour I can't imagine much internal pressure on getting rid of that system so they wouldn't have a massive majority.

Remember though that in the 90s the old PC Party was largely supplanted by two separate parties - the Bloc Quebecois which took the formerly PC soft nationalist voters, and the Reform Party which took its western and Ontario small-C conservative votes.

Even if crushed in the next election, the Tories are bound to bounce back unless some other right-of-centre party can supplant them.

Yeah and they were splits before the election. I know you should never underestimate them. The only Tory leaders in the last 100 years who weren't also at one point PM were the ones who had to campaign against Blair

There is the Reform Party ( ) who are the post-UKIP UKIP - they occasionally do relatively well in the opinion polls a little bit above 5%. But that's not enough to win a seat, given UKIP's problems despite winning 12.5% of the vote. Also I'm very suspicious because I see lots of talk about them online - but step outside and no-one I know has ever even heard of them.

Although I don't think it's impossible a new party emerges or there's a split. If there's a catastrophic defeat a lot will depend on who's remaining to choose the next leader. I think an awful lot depends on who that is, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tories go crazy after defeat with full lunatics taking over the asylum - and for that to lead to a new party of the centre-right.

[Sheilbh]

Separately - Labour's press team have circulated this weird timer to journalists:


And the Labour press office Twitter page now looks like this:


No idea what it's about but drumming up this much attention it better be good Maybe Government Procurement something?