Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[The Larch]

I mentioned that because I saw some people on Twitter wondering if people in London protesting against the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision were aware on the situation in N. Ireland re. abortion.

[Duque de Bragança]

Re the rest of the world is not America - but is also very American - I see that in response to the Roe ruling France is looking at a constitutional amendment to protect the right to an abortion.

Perfectly useless, typical political posturing. Already opposed by one of Jupiter's allies, Bayrou.

Abortion period was already extended to 14 weeks, not long ago.

[Sheilbh]

I mentioned that because I saw some people on Twitter wondering if people in London protesting against the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision were aware on the situation in N. Ireland re. abortion.

Well, quite - and there were absolutely similarly justified comments on Brits celebrating the Repeal the 8th campaign in Ireland achieving victory.

And the answer is broadly no - but I think it points to two slightly bigger truths about GB ignorance about Northern Ireland and generally sort of indifference about Northern Ireland. I always mention it but in polls a third of Brits think there should be a united Ireland, a third don't think it's any of their business what Northern Ireland does and a third support the union. Weirdly more Brits think there should be a border poll than Northern Irish people do (and about two thirds of Brits would be happy or indifferent if Northern Ireland voted to leave the UK).

There's a weird asymmetry because obviously for 40-45% of the Northern Irish population their Britishness is absoluely core to their identity, but it's not really reciprocated - Northern Ireland is not really essential to British identity in GB.

[Gups]

Abortion was legalised in Northern Ireland in 2019 by the UK Government but tthere continue to be lots of wranglings over provision of services.

As per Shelf's post, I feel absolutely no kinship with NI certainly no more than I do with ROI.I'd be very happy if Ireland were unified if it could be done without civil war.

[garbon]

And that's the state of this supposed United Kingdom.

[Sheilbh]

As per Shelf's post, I feel absolutely no kinship with NI certainly no more than I do with ROI.I'd be very happy if Ireland were unified if it could be done without civil war.

Same - I am an Irish citizen as well so I feel bit more of a tie to Ireland (plus my family are Irish). But I also think Irish unification would be great, when it's possible and without any violence. In the meantime getting the current compromise and properly devolved government working would be a really good step because I think Northern Ireland should run Northern Ireland.

And that's the state of this supposed United Kingdom.

I'd be sad if Scotland left - but I totally get the emotional pull of Scottish independence. But it is a decision for people in Scotland.

Although, I think current government line is fair - no new referendum until there's a consistent "yes" lead in the polls, which happened during the covid pandemic until the vaccine roll-out but otherwise hasn't happened at any other point since 2014.

[Josquius]

I'm just keeping an eye on how you get a scottish passport. Will you need be there pre referendum or would it be chill if I registered the month before independence.

No referendum until the polls show something is a weird way to go.
1: gives the polls such political power which they really shouldn't have
2: brexit was polling at what, 20%,before the government decided to ram it down our throats as the most important of issues.


Scottish independence would be an absolute disaster for the UK and the North but I cant say I blame them. Totally should be allowed a referendum if they want it. The trouble is down that path lies a vote every year where the yes side just have to squeeze through once ala brexit.

[Sheilbh]

I'm just keeping an eye on how you get a scottish passport. Will you need be there pre referendum or would it be chill if I registered the month before independence.

Last time I think you need to be a resident long enough to register to vote.

But the Scottish government last time had a pretty broad franchise - so 16-17 year olds, EU and Commonwealth citizens. Since then they've extended the vote for Scottish Parliament elections to 16-17 years olds, as well as citizens of all nationalities legally resident in Scotland (as well as the traditional right to vote for Irish and Commonwealth citizens).

I imagine it would be on the same basis as Scottish Parliament elections - so a very broad franchise.

No referendum until the polls show something is a weird way to go.
1: gives the polls such political power which they really shouldn't have
2: brexit was polling at what, 20%,before the government decided to ram it down our throats as the most important of issues.

I think it makes sense in terms of desire for a referendum. Sturgeon is pushing for one now but only a third of Scots want a new referendum in the next year - there is more support for one in the medium term (but that often moves with time).

It's also aligned with Northern Ireland which makes sense given their both votes about remaining in the union. A border poll will happen "if at any time it appears likely to the Secretary of State that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland". Part of that may be demographics, but that shouldn't be too big a part of it. So more likely it will be informed with polling. Which makes sense.

Scottish independence would be an absolute disaster for the UK and the North but I cant say I blame them.

I mean it would be a bigger disaster for Scotland. Brexit multiplied many, many times - but I can see why many want to go for it and if I was in Scotland maybe I would too.

[Barrister]

I'm just keeping an eye on how you get a scottish passport. Will you need be there pre referendum or would it be chill if I registered the month before independence.

No referendum until the polls show something is a weird way to go.
1: gives the polls such political power which they really shouldn't have
2: brexit was polling at what, 20%,before the government decided to ram it down our throats as the most important of issues.

Polls always have a lot of political power.

Brexit was a referendum the government had hoped would lose.

[Sheilbh]

The Brexit referendum was also a manifesto pledge in an election of a UK government which has the constitutional power to hold a referendum.

Even if you're just looking at votes, not seats, parties that wanted an EU referendum won over 50% of the vote (Tories, UKIP, Greens and DUP = about 55%).

More widely Labour promised an in/out referendum if any further powers were transferred to the EU (again, on the assumption that they'd win the referendum); the Lib Dems promised much the same but said it needed to be a transfer of "material powers". Both of those went beyond the legal requirement (which they could always abolish if they had a majority) which was just to hold a referendum on any transfer of powers - they wanted to make it in/out as they thought it'd be easier to win.

Given that Tories, Greens, UKIP, Labour and Lib Dems all had some form of in/out referendum in their manifestoes I think it's fair to say there was a more general sense that we were at the outer edge of what people consented to in 1975. So there was a sense of a need to re-fresh that consent by the governed as the EU had transformed in that period and was (and is) continuing to transform. And I'd add that every election I've been able to vote in has had one of the major parties promising an in/out referendum (it used to be a standard Lib Dem pledge - again they thought they'd win).

[Sheilbh]

Again on sexual misconduct

Tory deputy chief whip has quit after allegedly drunkenly groping two young men last night. In fairness to him (unlike others I've mentioned in this threat), it's not taken formal complaints and weeks of allegations - however this isn't the first allegation about him.

His letter to the PM says that "last night I drank far too much. I've embarrassed myself and other people".

The previous allegation was from a former Olympic rower and Tory activist, who was 26 at the time, and accused Pincher of behaving like a "pound shop Harvey Weinstein". Allegedly he tried to untuck his shirt, started massaging his neck and whispered "you'll go far in the Conservative Party"

Pincher referred himself to the police but was cleared. But having to resign again feels like it should lead to a bit more punishment as there's a pattern of behaviour there. At least this wasn't in parliament or towards junior staff as seems to be the general trend.

[Josquius]

]
Last time I think you need to be a resident long enough to register to vote.

But the Scottish government last time had a pretty broad franchise - so 16-17 year olds, EU and Commonwealth citizens. Since then they've extended the vote for Scottish Parliament elections to 16-17 years olds, as well as citizens of all nationalities legally resident in Scotland (as well as the traditional right to vote for Irish and Commonwealth citizens).

I imagine it would be on the same basis as Scottish Parliament elections - so a very broad franchise.

It's not the voting I'm bothered about - don't know which way I would vote. Heart and head arguments for both sides.
Its getting a more valuable passport than the UK one and covering my arse.

Scottish independence would be an absolute disaster for the UK and the North but I cant say I blame them.

I mean it would be a bigger disaster for Scotland. Brexit multiplied many, many times - but I can see why many want to go for it and if I was in Scotland maybe I would too.
[/quote]

It's the conventional wisdom but I disagree on this post brexit.
 I do think Scotland is small enough that it wouldn't take much to realign its economy, and with Scotland on the inside and England out that leaves England without many options whilst Scotland gains a lot.
The economic argument looks quite a bit better these days than last time around when it was Scotland leaving the EU.

[Sheilbh]

It's not the voting I'm bothered about - don't know which way I would vote. Heart and head arguments for both sides.
Its getting a more valuable passport than the UK one and covering my arse.

Oh no idea how that would work. I think the SNP have done a white paper on future citizenship, but I don't know how it'd apply for rUK residents pre-independence.

It might be a little like the settled scheme where you have a right to reside and, after twelve months of residence, can become a citizen.

It's the conventional wisdom but I disagree on this post brexit.
 I do think Scotland is small enough that it wouldn't take much to realign its economy, and with Scotland on the inside and England out that leaves England without many options whilst Scotland gains a lot.
The economic argument looks quite a bit better these days than last time around when it was Scotland leaving the EU.

We've seen the impact of Brexit and Scotland's international trade is similarly about 50/50 EU/ROTW (with the EU portion being a little bit smaller than ROTW). But 60% of their trade is with the rest of the UK. Brexit was leaving an incomplete semi-integrated single market, leaving the UK would be leaving a highly integrated single market that's developed as one for about three hundred years. It would be a huge shift and economic hit - especially as unlike in 2014, because of climate, the SNP can't propose to solve that issue by simply discovering more gas.

And that's putting to one side Scotland's deficit which is currently running at over 20%, or the need to establish a new currency (because the BofE/Sterling would be responding to the rUK economy, not Scotland's - so may not be loose enough, or may start tightening too soon). Having their own currency and central bank (and I think getting that deficit down) needs to be done before Scotland meets the criteria to even apply for EU membership. I don't think it'd be as easy as slipping from the UK into the EU and I don't think the EU is in a mood to make special deals with Brits any more (maybe they were in 2017) particularly around accession given the position of Ukraine.

Having said all of that there's more to a country and its life than the economy (though that helps), so I get the appeal and it might be worth it. And in the long-run with the right policies there is no reason Scotland would not be able to make a huge success of independence. It's for the people of Scotland to decide that.

But I think we need to dispel myths that it wouldn't be, basically, Brexit times ten or that (as the SNP claim) after independence they could spend more on public services. Especially if, on Brexit, you get angry about lies (which I don't) or think people feel like they were sold a bag of goods (which I do). Because I don't really see the difference except for scale.

Edit: Also basically I'm not convinced by the SNP position on this which is very often "being in the UK is awful, after independence we would simply be Sweden". It's a nice goal. But there's lots of steps and difficulties on the way.

Purely on the politics I think this is a big challenge for the SNP because I don't thnk pushing for a referendum now is popular with the general public, but I think it's really important to the fundamentalist wing of the party. But I think that leaves an incredible opportunity for Scottish Labour (and their leader, Anas Sarwar, seems to be doing quite well of this) of pointing out that the very real problems in public services and attacking the government for not focusing on that, but instead on "division" and pushing for another referendum.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The economic hit would be enormous and the SNP is not being honest about that. Imagine that they win with 50%+1 of the vote then lose 20% of GDP, how would the 50%-1 feel about that?

The horse has bolted, but regular referendums where a simple majority of votes cast can lead to independence is ridiculous.

[Sheilbh]

Still disagree with that but I also like how the SNP have shifted the requirement they'd need to meet for a "mandate" for a referendum from winning 50%+1 of the vote in a Scottish or UK general election (their position until this week), to winning 50%+1 of the seats in a UK general election - which obviously they already do on about 40-45% of the vote

If you watch Scottish politics there is basically nothing people complain about the Tories at a UK level, that the SNP are not as guilty (and often more) of in Scotland. It's just it doesn't get covered. Whether its the unfairness of FPTP to them, where the SNP are the party with the most efficient vote in the country (followed by the Tories), the corruption scandals (see the ferries story), the failing services - the quality of Scottish education has collapsed compared to rUK in their period in office, for example. An example is the SNP just scrapping the public accounts watchdog because their reports were repeatedly critical and kept pointing out that evidence had disappeared.

Chris Cook who was formerly a policy reporter for Newsnight and is now senior reporter at the FT noted that, if you're a policy reporter trying to cover UK policy and all nations "there'sa  lot more 'don't upset the government' than in England, even on stuff where people think they're wrong. At the WonkHE conference a few years ago, I made a point about how everyone in Scotland knows there's more politics in the dispersal of research cash than in England, only to have the VC sitting next to me interrupt me to issue what sounded like a hostage statement." Needless to say the response he received to that comment was overwhelming cybernats telling him to get his nose out of Scotland's business and they don't need to be treated like peasants by someone working for a London paper.

The key difference is that I don't think Brexit is enough for the 45% who voted Tory in 2019 and they look like they're heading back to the floor for the Tory party of about 30%, while in Scotland it seems like the prospect of a new referendum and one more push to independence is enough to keep the 45% going. It's maybe a model of what British politics would look like had Remain won.

I think part of it from English people is that the vibes are different Boris Johnson is clearly bad - Trump, Bolsonaro, populism, "literally like Germany 1933". The vibes of Nicola Sturgeon are different - liberal, not populist (), civic nationalist etc. In practice the politics and frankly the policy are more or less the same but that takes a back seat to the vibes.