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Hillary vs Bernie

Started by Eddie Teach, January 31, 2016, 05:47:52 AM

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Say you're at the Iowa Democratic caucus- who do you vote for?

Sanders
31 (46.3%)
Clinton
25 (37.3%)
Littlefinger
5 (7.5%)
Sanders, but only to make it easier for GOP to win
2 (3%)
Clinton, but only to make it easier for GOP to win
0 (0%)
Write in for Biden :(
1 (1.5%)
Write in for Trump :wacko:
3 (4.5%)

Total Members Voted: 66

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Eddie Teach

#315
February 19, 2016, 03:47:12 PM
Couldn't you have picked a larger image?

Looking at that map, you would think Hillary won. NY, CA, TX, FL, PA, MI...
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

OttoVonBismarck

#316
February 19, 2016, 05:15:16 PM
It looks like I forgot the outcomes in KY/Tennessee (but I also somewhat forget they're in the SEC), Texas wasn't an SEC state in 2008 and Florida wasn't contested in '08 since the state broke the DNC rules and wasn't allowed to seat delegates (at least initially, the DNC caved and let them seat a reduced number at the very end.)

But wasn't part of why this map produced a win for Obama because of the margins?

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/2008_Democratic_Primaries_Popular_Vote.svg

Shows that Barry won harder in more states, Hillary won lightly in the big states so the delegate difference wasn't huge in those, but Barry won some huge margins in states Hillary didn't campaign in very hard. Hillary actually mismanaged her campaign pretty badly in 2008, she wasn't playing a delegate game because she assumed if she won enough big states everything would just "coalesce" around her as the rightful nominee. Obama was playing a delegate grind (i.e. following the actual rules of the game.)

Phillip V

#317
February 20, 2016, 04:28:36 PM
With over a quarter of the results in, Clinton and Sanders are about tied in Nevada.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/nevada

OttoVonBismarck

#318
February 20, 2016, 05:22:42 PM
MSNBC and Fox call it for HRC. She's up by 2% with 65% in, and most of the remaining precincts are in Clark County, where she is leading by 10% in the precincts already reporting. Due to Clark County's large population relative to the rest of the State she could end up winning by 5-6% if her margin in Clark County holds for the rest of the precincts.

Phillip V

#319
February 20, 2016, 05:28:08 PM
I am going to write off Bernie Sanders now.  The perfect storm he needed were upset wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada to possibly make a dent in South Carolina and beyond.

Clinton is slightly bruised, but it seems to be smooth sailing from here.

OttoVonBismarck

#320
February 20, 2016, 06:57:35 PM
Yeah, my projected "death of Bernie" involved him winning New Hampshire, losing Nevada and South Carolina, then getting creamed in Super Tuesday. South Carolina was never in doubt, but Nevada is the kind of state that's represents other states throughout the country that will be "competitive for both sides" much moreso than Iowa (where Hillary ground out a narrow victory.) Bernie is going to end up losing by 4-6% in Nevada.

That bodes poorly for lots of big states with mixed electorates like California, Texas, Florida etc. Since Hillary is going to win by huge margins in the high black population states (most of the Southeast and a few scattered states like Michigan where blacks are a large portion of the Democratic primary electorate) if she wins by moderate 3-6% margins in "big competitive states" there really is no math that doesn't have her winning outright, probably with 70% of the pledged delegates.

Siege

#321
February 20, 2016, 10:01:58 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on January 31, 2016, 05:47:52 AM
The fate of the country is in your hands.

Oh please.
A criminal vs a communist?
Retard fight.

Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, or I stay home.


"All men are created equal, then some become infantry."

"Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't."

"Laissez faire et laissez passer, le monde va de lui même!"

Eddie Teach

#322
February 20, 2016, 10:03:28 PM
Quote from: Siege on February 20, 2016, 10:01:58 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on January 31, 2016, 05:47:52 AM
The fate of the country is in your hands.

Oh please.
A criminal vs a communist?
Retard fight.

Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, or I stay home.

Promise?
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Razgovory

#323
February 20, 2016, 10:13:31 PM
Quote from: Siege on February 20, 2016, 10:01:58 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on January 31, 2016, 05:47:52 AM
The fate of the country is in your hands.

Oh please.
A criminal vs a communist?
Retard fight.

Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, or I stay home.

Spoken like a true Arab.  An actual Jew is running for President and you won't consider him.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Martinus

#324
February 21, 2016, 04:49:48 AM
I would vote for Trump if he promised to send Siegy back to Arabland.

Josquius

#325
February 21, 2016, 05:22:10 AM
Seems pretty certain Clinton will win with even draws putting her significantly ahead
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Valmy

#326
February 21, 2016, 09:30:27 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 21, 2016, 05:22:10 AM
Seems pretty certain Clinton will win with even draws putting her significantly ahead

Good.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Jaron

#327
February 21, 2016, 09:33:20 PM
I would vote for Sanders.

I would vote for Clinton over Trump, but Rubio over Clinton.
Winner of THE grumbler point.

Valmy

#328
February 21, 2016, 09:39:08 PM
Quote from: Jaron on February 21, 2016, 09:33:20 PM
I would vote for Sanders.

I would vote for Clinton over Trump, but Rubio over Clinton.

Eh you live in Utah. Who you vote for barely matters. I know the feeling :P
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

HisMajestyBOB

#329
February 21, 2016, 09:44:26 PM
I finally looked up "SEC Primary" because I was wondering what the Super Tuesday states had to do with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Turns out the actual reason for the name is at least equally dumb.  <_<
Three lovely Prada points for HoI2 help
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