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Started by The Minsky Moment, January 07, 2016, 12:43:23 PM

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The Minsky Moment

January 07, 2016, 12:43:23 PM
Here are the career lines for two NL pitchers:

G:  1119 vs. 1035
IP: 1245 vs. 1089
W/L: 90-87 vs. 61-75
ERA: 2.89 v. 2.87

Pitcher # 1 is John Franco.  He went on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2011, failed to make the cut and dropped off.
Pitcher #2 is Trevor Hoffman, who got over 67% on his first ballot appearance.

Hoffman was not only big name first time reliever on the ballot - Billy Wagner also debuted this year.  Wagner cut his career short for personal reasons, but was still very effective when he retired: a 1.43 ERA and 37 saves for the Braves.  Hoffman played much longer, but how much is that extra longevity worth?  The difference between Wagner's career numbers and Hoffman's would make the following pitcher:

IP: 186
H: 246
ERA: 5.56

Safe to say there is no additional value there . . . yet Wagner barely scraped over 10% support.

The difference of course is the career saves numbers: Wagner and Franco were in the 400s and Hoffman was over 600.  But while saves may not be entirely useless as a stat, they aren't very informative either.  If Franco is a non-candidate (and I agree he is a non-candidate) and Wagner is a best a very marginal candidate (also agree) I don't see how Hoffman is a strong HOF candidate.

What I really don't get is how Hoffman drew far more support than Mussina or Schilling.

It's clear the HOF voters as a group don't know how to deal with relievers generally and are putting far too much weight on draw save totals.

The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

alfred russel

#1
January 07, 2016, 03:47:56 PM
You are discounting how excited HOF voters got by Hell's Bells when he entered games?

If you want to be in the Hall as a marginal candidate, you need a good theme song.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Sophie Scholl

#2
January 07, 2016, 05:20:26 PM
I think Mussina should have drawn greater support.  I also think the PED players should be in for what it's worth, though making them a cautionary tale is vital.  I'm glad Griffey and Piazza are in, though I was surprised by Griffey's vote total.  I wouldn't have expected him to set a new record on percentage of the vote.  In non-HoF news, I'm looking forward to heading to Cleveland at the end of the month to go to Tribefest.  Second year in a row for me.  Last year was a lot of fun and this year has some new tweaks to the event it seems.  Do any of you go to your team's offseason fan fest if they have one?
"Everything that brought you here -- all the things that made you a prisoner of past sins -- they are gone. Forever and for good. So let the past go... and live."

"Somebody, after all, had to make a start. What we wrote and said is also believed by many others. They just don't dare express themselves as we did."

The Minsky Moment

#3
January 07, 2016, 06:54:24 PM
Junior appeals to all the voting blocs.  The PED-crusaders like him because he wouldn't juice.  The statheads like him because he was really good.  The cranks like him because he played the game the "right way" and had pedigree.  And apparently he managed to go through 20 years without annoying some schmuck of a grudge-carrying reporter ready to use a HOF vote as payback.  Well except maybe 1 or 2.

Of course, if you want to make the point of valuing "clean" players, where's the love for Trammell?  His departure is very disappointing.  Seems like the HOF voters have a hard time dealing with players with balanced skills.  Trammell didn't have the offense of a Ripkin or Jeter, or the defense of an Ozzie.  But he was very good on both dimensions - in terms of overall value, probably close to the Jeter/Ozzie level.   
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

jimmy olsen

#4
January 07, 2016, 07:08:37 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 07, 2016, 06:54:24 PM
Junior appeals to all the voting blocs.  The PED-crusaders like him because he wouldn't juice.  The statheads like him because he was really good.  The cranks like him because he played the game the "right way" and had pedigree.  And apparently he managed to go through 20 years without annoying some schmuck of a grudge-carrying reporter ready to use a HOF vote as payback.  Well except maybe 1 or 2.

Of course, if you want to make the point of valuing "clean" players, where's the love for Trammell?  His departure is very disappointing.  Seems like the HOF voters have a hard time dealing with players with balanced skills.  Trammell didn't have the offense of a Ripkin or Jeter, or the defense of an Ozzie.  But he was very good on both dimensions - in terms of overall value, probably close to the Jeter/Ozzie level.   

Trammell's the kind of player the veteran's comittee votes in 30 years after he's dead.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

PRC

#5
January 08, 2016, 12:48:47 AM
The three votes that Junior didn't get were probably from purists who believe that no player should ever make the hall unanimously if someone like Babe Ruth didn't and they knew he was a lock for a lot of votes.  Although if anybody should have made it unanimously it was probably him for the reasons you stated.

derspiess

#6
March 14, 2016, 12:48:32 PM
I've bought a few packs of 2016 baseball cards and Buster Posey keeps showing up.  It's like every pack I open I see his dorkface.  Probably a good sign for Bluto's Gigantes this year.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Savonarola

#7
March 17, 2016, 08:03:20 AM
CB and I saw Astros-Tigers yesterday at Osceola County Stadium in Kissimmee.  (Spring Training: where has-beens and never will-bes compete with today's stars.)  The Tiger's have one player who has the greatest name:  Joey Pankake (no matter how the Scandinavians think that should be pronounced, it's pronounced the same as "Pancake.")  I really hope he makes it; even the Astros fans were cheering him on.  It could only be better if he had a brother named "Johnny Pankake."

There were quite a few more Astros fans at Osceola County Stadium than there ever were Nationals fans at Space Coast Stadium.  Every game I saw at Space Coast Stadium seemed like a home game for the visiting team.

In between one of the innings they played "Deep in the Heart of Texas."  Stadium babes stood up along the first and third base lines with signs that read:

"Clap-clap-clap-clap"
"Deep in the heart of"
and a picture of Texas

Which they held up at the appropriate part of the song; or were supposed to.  The gal with the Texas sign was a couple beats behind the song, and would hold up the Texas at the beginning of the next verse.  :alberta:
In Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace—and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock

derspiess

#8
March 17, 2016, 10:21:55 AM
One of these years I'll get down to Florida for Spring Training.  But not when it's in the 90s like it has been this week :yuk:
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Savonarola

#9
March 17, 2016, 10:40:34 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 17, 2016, 10:21:55 AM
One of these years I'll get down to Florida for Spring Training.  But not when it's in the 90s like it has been this week :yuk:

Yeah, it was 90 in Kissimmee yesterday.  It must be strange for the players from northern teams going from that to the usually freezing weather on opening day.
In Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace—and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock

Sophie Scholl

#10
March 30, 2016, 06:34:22 PM
Baseball Trip 2016 is ready to go!  I'll be hitting Cleveland midweek for a three game set versus the Mariners April 19-21.  I managed to get the usual hotel I stay at for 2 nights and the same tickets for all three games for under $400 split between my friend and I.  The tickets are pretty solid as well, 2nd row from the field just a bit past the visitor's dugout.  My pants are a dairy factory right now.  So much excitement!
"Everything that brought you here -- all the things that made you a prisoner of past sins -- they are gone. Forever and for good. So let the past go... and live."

"Somebody, after all, had to make a start. What we wrote and said is also believed by many others. They just don't dare express themselves as we did."

Barrister

#11
March 30, 2016, 09:06:24 PM
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

CountDeMoney

#12
March 30, 2016, 09:08:06 PM
Stupid Orioles.   :mad:

Valmy

#13
March 30, 2016, 11:02:31 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 30, 2016, 09:08:06 PM
Stupid Orioles.   :mad:

At least they will lose a lot of exciting high scoring games :(
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

CountDeMoney

#14
March 30, 2016, 11:05:07 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2016, 11:02:31 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 30, 2016, 09:08:06 PM
Stupid Orioles.   :mad:

At least they will lose a lot of exciting high scoring games :(

Yup.  Gotta love spending the most money of any team in the division, and yet, be lucky if they finish 4th.  You'll definitely have plenty of 12-9 losses to enjoy this year.
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