Baseball 2016

[Valmy]

Somewhere Tinker, Evers, and Chance are smiling.

[The Minsky Moment]

Somewhere Chance is calming down after screaming at Maddon, Baez, Chapman, the weather gods and anyone in the vicinity for four plus hours

Tinker and Evers are too busy taking swings at each other

Harry Steinfeldt is probably happy though.  Nice guy.

[Eddie Teach]

Back to the Future 2 was only off by one year.

[Valmy]

Woah.

Now the Chicago/St Louis/Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals are the most cursed team in sports.

[dps]

Maddon leaned too hard on Chapman.  He doesn't have it.
You can't expect modern day closers to do multiple 2+ inning games at a stretch

Maddon's a good manager;  I don't blame him for bringing in Chapman to replace Lester when he did.  The real mistake IMO was bringing in Lester to replace Hendricks too early.  Leave Hendricks in longer and bring Lester in later, and you don't have to try to get more than 3 outs from Chapman again.

[The Minsky Moment]

Maddon's a good manager;  I don't blame him for bringing in Chapman to replace Lester when he did.  The real mistake IMO was bringing in Lester to replace Hendricks too early.  Leave Hendricks in longer and bring Lester in later, and you don't have to try to get more than 3 outs from Chapman again.

I agree on Hendricks, but let's look at the bigger picture on Chapman
In Game 5, Maddon brings him in 7th inning.  That made sense - Cubs were facing elimination, only one run lead, one out, and tying run in scoring position.  At that point in the game their win expectancy is only in the 60s.  The next day is a day off and if you don't win, there are no more games to play anyways.  So - cool.

Game 6 Chapman comes in the 7th, again,  Except now it's a 5 run lead.  Yes there are two guys on and Lindor up but it's 2 outs, and Lindor while great, is  not a massive power threat.  Win expectancy when Chapman came in was about 96%.  I know major league managers are not math wizzes, but that's why MLB teams employ stats guys.  You can say Game 6 is a must win game, and it was, but the bigger point is BOTH Game 6 and Game 7 were must win.  Bringing Chapman in game 6 in the 7th doesn't really move the needle for the Cubs win chances but it does compromise his effectiveness if Game 7 turns out to be close.    So that was Maddon's first big bad move.

Game 7 he's got Hendricks on the mound, arguably the best pitcher in the league certainly close to it.  Well rested, low pitch count and cruising.  Previous inning was 1-2-3, comes in for the 5th, get two quick outs, then a single.   

And then he's out for a another pitcher with less rest, whose most notorious weakness is that he can't hold runners.  So yeah. bad decision there.

But then Lester settles, and is cruising and the same pattern happens.  Lester gets through the 7th with one walk, gets the first 2 outs in the 8th, and then one single.   2 outs, 3 run lead, what's the panic?

For better or for worse, the modern closer role is heavily focused on single inning outings, with guys coming in fresh at the start of the inning.  The good ones can deviate from the pattern when needed and Chapman is definitely one of those.  But the decision has to made in context, and the relevant context here was a hard ununusual workload the night before and a similar one 2 nights before that.  On a guy whose entire game is velocity and fastball command.  I think Maddon played with fire there and got burned.

[Admiral Yi]

The use of Chapman was pretty weird.  Bringing a closer on in the 8th is already supposed to be nuts, then he comes on in the 7th, multiple times.  And it's not like the Cubs had hopeless middle relief.

I kind of got the sense that Maddon was trying to teach Chapman a lesson, like "you can talk the talk let's see if you can walk the walk."

[alfred russel]

The use of Chapman was pretty weird.  Bringing a closer on in the 8th is already supposed to be nuts, then he comes on in the 7th, multiple times.  And it's not like the Cubs had hopeless middle relief.

I kind of got the sense that Maddon was trying to teach Chapman a lesson, like "you can talk the talk let's see if you can walk the walk."

I think it more had to do with the fact that the way closers are used is stupid. The best pitchers should be used when the need arises, and if the need arises in the 7th inning, the pitchers should be used then.

In the regular season it may be worth it to deviate from the theoretical best strategy so that you can establish consistent patterns with your team, keep top guys happy by getting them saves, avoid having talk radio bitch all the time about your unconventional relief pitcher use, etc. In the World Series, that longer term stuff doesn't matter: just go for the win.

[The Minsky Moment]

I think it more had to do with the fact that the way closers are used is stupid. The best pitchers should be used when the need arises, and if the need arises in the 7th inning, the pitchers should be used then.

7th inning, 5 run lead, is not an optimal usage time for a team's best reliever.

[Admiral Yi]

You would think the coaching staff in the bullpen would have seen the trouble Chapman was having with his fast ball.

[alfred russel]

I think it more had to do with the fact that the way closers are used is stupid. The best pitchers should be used when the need arises, and if the need arises in the 7th inning, the pitchers should be used then.

7th inning, 5 run lead, is not an optimal usage time for a team's best reliever.

yeah, i agree on that.

[dps]

n o

Maddon's a good manager;  I don't blame him for bringing in Chapman to replace Lester when he did.  The real mistake IMO was bringing in Lester to replace Hendricks too early.  Leave Hendricks in longer and bring Lester in later, and you don't have to try to get more than 3 outs from Chapman again.

I agree on Hendricks, but let's look at the bigger picture on Chapman
In Game 5, Maddon brings him in 7th inning.  That made sense - Cubs were facing elimination, only one run lead, one out, and tying run in scoring position.  At that point in the game their win expectancy is only in the 60s.  The next day is a day off and if you don't win, there are no more games to play anyways.  So - cool.

Game 6 Chapman comes in the 7th, again,  Except now it's a 5 run lead.  Yes there are two guys on and Lindor up but it's 2 outs, and Lindor while great, is  not a massive power threat.  Win expectancy when Chapman came in was about 96%.  I know major league managers are not math wizzes, but that's why MLB teams employ stats guys.  You can say Game 6 is a must win game, and it was, but the bigger point is BOTH Game 6 and Game 7 were must win.  Bringing Chapman in game 6 in the 7th doesn't really move the needle for the Cubs win chances but it does compromise his effectiveness if Game 7 turns out to be close.    So that was Maddon's first big bad move.

Oh, yeah, I agree.  I was just focusing on Game 7 itself, but if we want to look at Game 6 as well, there really wasn't any need to bring Chapman in at all IMO.

Game 7 he's got Hendricks on the mound, arguably the best pitcher in the league certainly close to it.  Well rested, low pitch count and cruising.  Previous inning was 1-2-3, comes in for the 5th, get two quick outs, then a single.   

And then he's out for a another pitcher with less rest, whose most notorious weakness is that he can't hold runners.  So yeah. bad decision there.

But then Lester settles, and is cruising and the same pattern happens.  Lester gets through the 7th with one walk, gets the first 2 outs in the 8th, and then one single.   2 outs, 3 run lead, what's the panic?

For better or for worse, the modern closer role is heavily focused on single inning outings, with guys coming in fresh at the start of the inning.  The good ones can deviate from the pattern when needed and Chapman is definitely one of those.  But the decision has to made in context, and the relevant context here was a hard ununusual workload the night before and a similar one 2 nights before that.  On a guy whose entire game is velocity and fastball command.  I think Maddon played with fire there and got burned.

Again, no disagreement here.

And I also agree with a r that modern relief usage is stupid.  I think that he's right;  you should generally use your best reliever in the highest-leverage relief situations, and even if you want to just use him for 1 inning, the highest leverage inning isn't always going to be the 9th.  But it sure isn't when you have a 5-run lead, either.

[MadBurgerMaker]

I only watched about 7 innings of the game last night, and that was all of the playoff baseball I watched this year.  And now I want to see more.  Dammit.   

[Valmy]

The season is so long that by the time the Orioles got eliminated I was a little burned out

Glad I caught three of the WS games even if I went to bed last night before the Cubs won it.

[alfred russel]

I only watched about 7 innings of the game last night, and that was all of the playoff baseball I watched this year.  And now I want to see more.  Dammit.   

No worries, I hear they are bringing it back next year.