Facebook Follies of Friends and Families

[Admiral Yi]

How many people do you know that think that way?

How many people do you know who a) accept covid is real and dangerous, b) some level of restriction is necessary but because of c) restrictions that they feel are illogical, choose to d) not obey restrictions which they feel *are* necessary?

"I think masks in supermarkets are great, but because the governor said I can't go to a nightclub, I'm going to demask in the supermarket too."

[Eddie Teach]

I think he's saying some people react to c by rejecting a and b.

[DGuller]

I think it's reasonable to note that compliance budget is limited, and should be used wisely.  That sentence I quoted, though, about Covid not being that bad, and that politicians are transparently trying to control people, is just nuts, and has nothing to do with this.  It is possible that politicians may just not be making the perfect decisions in general, and certainly not in a situation like global pandemic, without having a goal to control your life.

[alfred russel]

I think he's saying some people react to c by rejecting a and b.

Exactly.

Which I get is illogical but isn't uncommon. Some large percentage of Americans believe global warming is a lie. Probably an absolute majority in rural areas. That obviously is not an opinion carefully developed from research, but probably a reaction against being told gas prices may go up and it isn't cool that they are driving / aspire to drive a big truck with giant tires. And with the message from scientists that want to take their guns in all liklihood.

You want to get Cooter to wear a mask and socially distance when he visits the gas station for lunch, passing a cop blocking a hiking trail on the way in is probably not a great way to convince him. He is going to decide it is all bullshit and go about his business as before.

[Admiral Yi]

Exactly.

Which I get is illogical but isn't uncommon. Some large percentage of Americans believe global warming is a lie. Probably an absolute majority in rural areas. That obviously is not an opinion carefully developed from research, but probably a reaction against being told gas prices may go up and it isn't cool that they are driving / aspire to drive a big truck with giant tires. And with the message from scientists that want to take their guns in all liklihood.

You want to get Cooter to wear a mask and socially distance when he visits the gas station for lunch, passing a cop blocking a hiking trail on the way in is probably not a great way to convince him. He is going to decide it is all bullshit and go about his business as before.

But we're not talking about convincing Cooter.  What you agreed to is a situation in which Cooter used to be convinced, but unconvinced himself because he couldn't go hiking.  I maintain that does not exist.

[alfred russel]

But we're not talking about convincing Cooter.  What you agreed to is a situation in which Cooter used to be convinced, but unconvinced himself because he couldn't go hiking.  I maintain that does not exist.

I disagree.

Cooter isn't registering consistent opinions on a daily basis, with deep thinking backing up his thoughts and actions. But in the aggregate, this is what I've seen:

-exactly 12 months ago, the streets were virtually empty. Atlanta was basically a ghost town and the normally crowded interstates were empty. It was very eerie. The rest of Georgia is less crowded but the roads outside the city were also much less crowded than normal.
-today, the roads are back to their normally congested selves, and in rural areas normal life has resumed to a significant extent.

Somewhere along the way a large number of people that thought "this china virus sure sounds bad, I better stay home and keep safe" decided it was all bullshit and normal life was cool. I don't think that process was triggered just by hiking (obviously), but I do think it was triggered by excessive demands in the early days.

I was saying this back in March of last year: if you burden people with too many unsustainable rules, it threatens to undermine the entire system of prevention.

[Admiral Yi]

If what you say is true, shouldn't we see less compliance in places where restrictions have been more strict?  And shouldn't it work the other way as well?  Shouldn't people who live places like Texas react to the complete lifting of restrictions by saying "gosh, that's too much, I'm going to wear a mask because I know covid is lethal?"

I think a more reasonable dynamic is herd behavior and tipping points.  People look to people around them to decide how much prevention is appropriate.  So for example in Georgia as more and more people say "what the fuck I'm going maskless,"  more and more people will join.

A corrolary to that is people segregate.  They find places where no one else is masking to hang out.

[alfred russel]

If what you say is true, shouldn't we see less compliance in places where restrictions have been more strict?  And shouldn't it work the other way as well?  Shouldn't people who live places like Texas react to the complete lifting of restrictions by saying "gosh, that's too much, I'm going to wear a mask because I know covid is lethal?"

Flip this around...how much of a link is there really between government restrictions in the US at this point and covid spread?

Do you remember in the way distant past of early this month? When Texas caused national (and some international) shock and horror by lifting all of its covid restrictions and going 100% open?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/04/opinion/coronavirus-masks.html

Paul Krugman wrote "I don't know how many people will die unnecessarily because the governor of Texas has decided that ignoring the science and end the mask requirement is a good way to own the libs. But the number won't be zero."

So at the end of the month, how is the body count in Texas looking? Cases per 100k of population in the past 7 days:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

1. Michigan 54
2. New York 51
3. New Jersey 50
4. Connecticut 38
5. Rhode Island 33
....
34. Texas 13

There are no states that have kept up the restrictions over the past year. The system wasn't sustainable, and it has broken down everywhere.

[Admiral Yi]

That's off point.  We were talkiing about a relationship between restrictions and compliance, not between restrictions and deaths.

[alfred russel]

That's off point.  We were talkiing about a relationship between restrictions and compliance, not between restrictions and deaths.

If at this point restrictions are related to activities that contribute to spread, and completely removing all of them at the state level results in...cases going down and cases below the national average...Doesn't that open up an argument that restrictions have lost relevance in the population?

[Admiral Yi]

If at this point restrictions are related to activities that contribute to spread, and completely removing all of them at the state level results in...cases going down and cases below the national average...Doesn't that open up an argument that restrictions have lost relevance in the population?

I still don't see how this relates to what we were talking about.  It seems like you're trying to slip in an argument for noncompliance, which gets us back to my schizo comment.  If you want to argue noncompliance is great and more people should do it, knock yourself out, but it doesn't relate to your claim that overly harsh restrictions caused people to rebel.

[alfred russel]

If at this point restrictions are related to activities that contribute to spread, and completely removing all of them at the state level results in...cases going down and cases below the national average...Doesn't that open up an argument that restrictions have lost relevance in the population?

I still don't see how this relates to what we were talking about.  It seems like you're trying to slip in an argument for noncompliance, which gets us back to my schizo comment.  If you want to argue noncompliance is great and more people should do it, knock yourself out, but it doesn't relate to your claim that overly harsh restrictions caused people to rebel.

I'm certainly not trying to slip in an argument for noncompliance!

I am (and have always been) in favor of compliance with reasonable and balanced restrictions. Wearing masks makes sense. Restricting mass gatherings, especially indoors, also makes sense.

Closing rural hiking trails and giving citations to bird watchers is stupid.

The point I was making with Texas: Texas removes all of its restrictions and if anything its situation improves / post removal it is in the lower half of states in terms of cases per capita. I'm guessing the improvement is not related to the removal of state restrictions, but does give evidence that state level restrictions have lost meaning for much of the population and people are generally doing what they think is appropriate/want.

[Admiral Yi]

Well no Fredo, the relative death rate in Texas doesn't give us any evidence that "state level restrictions have lost meaning for much of the population."

[The Minsky Moment]

Paul Krugman wrote "I don't know how many people will die unnecessarily because the governor of Texas has decided that ignoring the science and end the mask requirement is a good way to own the libs. But the number won't be zero."

So at the end of the month, how is the body count in Texas looking? Cases per 100k of population in the past 7 days:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

1. Michigan 54
2. New York 51
3. New Jersey 50
4. Connecticut 38
5. Rhode Island 33
....
34. Texas 13

Krugman said deaths.
Last 7 day chart for deaths is here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100klast7days
Texas is #2 after California.
Even adjusted for population they are #6.

[grumbler]

Krugman said deaths.
Last 7 day chart for deaths is here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100klast7days
Texas is #2 after California.
Even adjusted for population they are #6.

Rather ironic that the state with the worst death rate is the State of Dorsey, no?