Facebook Follies of Friends and Families

[The Brain]

Or menace?

[grumbler]

Has there been a single nation where both the government and the people completely ignored the outbreak and let it happen unabated?  You can't really claim that Russian Roulette is not that dangerous just because most people have enough sense to not play it.

Sweden?

Sweden implemented a number of measures, including closing high schools and universities, restricting seating at restaurants, banning large gatherings, etc.  It never went into full lockdown, but requested (and seems to have gotten) cooperation from the populace in reducing hazardous activities.  If sweden had more Dorseys and fewer Brains, it would have had a higher death toll (and its death toll per capita is about that of the US right now, but dropping more rapidly than the US).  Georgia is surging up the ranks, though (now #1 in the US in cases per capita on a daily basis), while Sweden is falling (only 1/3 as many cases per million people as triumphant Georgia).

[crazy canuck]

Has there been a single nation where both the government and the people completely ignored the outbreak and let it happen unabated?  You can't really claim that Russian Roulette is not that dangerous just because most people have enough sense to not play it.

Sweden?

Sweden implemented a number of measures, including closing high schools and universities, restricting seating at restaurants, banning large gatherings, etc.  It never went into full lockdown, but requested (and seems to have gotten) cooperation from the populace in reducing hazardous activities.  If sweden had more Dorseys and fewer Brains, it would have had a higher death toll (and its death toll per capita is about that of the US right now, but dropping more rapidly than the US).  Georgia is surging up the ranks, though (now #1 in the US in cases per capita on a daily basis), while Sweden is falling (only 1/3 as many cases per million people as triumphant Georgia).

Hard to control for the Dorsey effect.

[alfred russel]

Georgia is surging up the ranks, though (now #1 in the US in cases per capita on a daily basis), while Sweden is falling (only 1/3 as many cases per million people as triumphant Georgia).

I really have no idea what you are talking about. From what I can see there are several states that are ahead of Georgia on both a per capita and total case count level.

[The Minsky Moment]

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?utm_source=morning_brew#cases

Only states ahead of Georgia for cases in the last 7 days are California, Florida, and Texas, all which much higher populations.

In death rates per capita among US states, Georgia now ranks 15 and Florida 17. 

[DGuller]

Holy crap, almost 0.2% of New Jersey population was killed by Covid?    That's almost NYC numbers.

[The Minsky Moment]

That's where the nursing homes are located.  Huge scandal there.

[alfred russel]

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?utm_source=morning_brew#cases

Only states ahead of Georgia for cases in the last 7 days are California, Florida, and Texas, all which much higher populations.

In death rates per capita among US states, Georgia now ranks 15 and Florida 17.

The united states passed Sweden in deaths per capita (Georgia and Florida remain behind Sweden, however, as they are better than the US average). The United States is now ahead of most countries (among developed countries, still behind Belgium, Spain, Italy, and the UK).

[DGuller]

One related thing that just dawned on me:  when case counts where hitting record peaks, that was all over my Google News feed.  Now I checked the stats, which I haven't checked for a couple of weeks due to not having Covid on my radar, and it turns out that statistics are going down significantly.  Nothing on Google News feed about that, I wouldn't know if I didn't check. 

I don't think it's a conspiracy, I just think it's a testament as to how sensationalism-driven the media is by its nature, and how it can lead to biased perceptions.  When things go bad, the news stories don't hesitate to wind up people's anxieties.  When things go better, yawn.

[11B4V]

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?utm_source=morning_brew#cases

Only states ahead of Georgia for cases in the last 7 days are California, Florida, and Texas, all which much higher populations.

In death rates per capita among US states, Georgia now ranks 15 and Florida 17.

The united states passed Sweden in deaths per capita (Georgia and Florida remain behind Sweden, however, as they are better than the US average). The United States is now ahead of most countries (among developed countries, still behind Belgium, Spain, Italy, and the UK).

USA!! USA!! #1

[alfred russel]

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?utm_source=morning_brew#cases

Only states ahead of Georgia for cases in the last 7 days are California, Florida, and Texas, all which much higher populations.

In death rates per capita among US states, Georgia now ranks 15 and Florida 17.

I was thinking about this last night, and I think the ultimate reality is that, adjectives aside, the country has more or less decided that Georgia took the right approach.

Compare Georgia to New Jersey. Georgia was irresponsible of course and started reopening things like gyms in April. New Jersey took things much more seriously: with people arrested for trying to reopen their gym (see Atilis Gym).

The story goes that in the last week Georgia had 138 new cases per 100k residents while New Jersey had 25.

But New Jersey reopened its gyms on September 1. Georgia did so on April 24. Obviously the only public policy issue is not gym reopenings, but to the extent that is a signal for everything else, New Jersey is basically going to the Georgia approach of a few months ago.

[DGuller]

  Everyone will be reopening gyms at some point, so will everyone be adopting a Georgia strategy at some point?

[alfred russel]

Everyone will be reopening gyms at some point, so will everyone be adopting a Georgia strategy at some point?

If it is the right time to open gyms now, wasn't it the right time in April?

No one is close to having their medical system overwhelmed--I think that was the case in late April though it might have been May in parts of Northern NJ. We still don't have a vaccine or treatment approaching a cure.

[DGuller]

Everyone will be reopening gyms at some point, so will everyone be adopting a Georgia strategy at some point?

If it is the right time to open gyms now, wasn't it the right time in April?

No one is close to having their medical system overwhelmed--I think that was the case in late April though it might have been May in parts of Northern NJ. We still don't have a vaccine or treatment approaching a cure.

It's not just about the time, and it's also about how.  In New Jersey in September, people generally know what they're dealing with, so even on their own they do steps to reduce risks.  In Georgia in April, people pretended Covid didn't apply to them. 

Secondly, not all openings are the same.  In New Jersey, there are very strict restrictions on gyms that do open, such as occupancy limits.  Thirdly, New Jersey gym reopenings are part of a dynamic plan, which could change in response to how reopenings work out.  If gyms turn out to be effective superspreaders even despite the precautions, or there is a widespread defiance of the restrictions, they'll be closing back down (just like indoor dining closed the first time after widespread violations).  None of this seems to resemble how Georgia approached this.

[alfred russel]

It's not just about the time, and it's also about how.  In New Jersey in September, people generally know what they're dealing with, so even on their own they do steps to reduce risks.  In Georgia in April, people pretended Covid didn't apply to them.

In Georgia, in both April and September, there are people that think the whole thing is a hoax. I bet that is true in New Jersey too. If you look at Languish in March and April, there was no shortage of panic. If anything the concern has dissipated, but this is really hard to quantify.

Secondly, not all openings are the same.  In New Jersey, there are very strict restrictions on gyms that do open, such as occupancy limits.  Thirdly, New Jersey gym reopenings are part of a dynamic plan, which could change in response to how reopenings work out.  If gyms turn out to be effective superspreaders even despite the precautions, or there is a widespread defiance of the restrictions, they'll be closing back down (just like indoor dining closed the first time after widespread violations).  None of this seems to resemble how Georgia approached this.

There were restrictions in Georgia too--I was trying to post the rules but it was too much effort to find what they were in the first phase. Georgia of course has the capacity to close stuff down too, if things go bad.

It is fine that New Jersey will close gyms down again if they turn out to be effective superspreaders, but New Jersey isn't inventing the wheel here. Gyms have globally been open for many months. The data on the risks in gyms and restaurants is out there already.

I see differences in the adjectives communicating the policies, but the on the ground reality looks similar. Whether you live in New Jersey or Georgia, today you can visit a gym, and when you go, you probably need to wear a mask, equipment is spaced for social distancing, and there are enhanced cleaning procedures.