2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Barrister]

I mean he won so I guess I cannot disagree with anything said about why he won.

I saw lots of anti-immigrant stuff. Not a ton on anger at the stagnation of wages.

Yeah - I really think Reich's post is one of those posts (like Bernie) who blames the Democrats election defeat on their own personal beliefs, and not on any actual evidence.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - I really think Reich's post is one of those posts (like Bernie) who blames the Democrats election defeat on their own personal beliefs, and not on any actual evidence.

In the case of Bernie - I'd point out that a pollster published a piece I think in the Guardian or NYT about how he was tracking opinion in Pennsylvania and the "threat to democracy"/"fascism" line of attack in the last third of the campaign was not cutting through with working class voters at all.

I think he's since said that after printing that piece, Bernie called him and had a very detailed call about what he was seeing in Pennsylvania from polling.

Obviously everyone's conclusions are (shockingly!) their priors (and I'm as bad as anyone).

[Barrister]

Yeah - I really think Reich's post is one of those posts (like Bernie) who blames the Democrats election defeat on their own personal beliefs, and not on any actual evidence.

In the case of Bernie - I'd point out that a pollster published a piece I think in the Guardian or NYT about how he was tracking opinion in Pennsylvania and the "threat to democracy"/"fascism" line of attack in the last third of the campaign was not cutting through with working class voters at all.

I think he's since said that after printing that piece, Bernie called him and had a very detailed call about what he was seeing in Pennsylvania from polling.

Obviously everyone's conclusions are (shockingly!) their priors (and I'm as bad as anyone).

I think (hope) that everyone knew the "threat to democracy" line would be effective amongst a small slice of the electorate that might otherwise vote GOP, but was never going to be a grand slam home run message.

[crazy canuck]

I mean he won so I guess I cannot disagree with anything said about why he won.

I saw lots of anti-immigrant stuff. Not a ton on anger at the stagnation of wages.

The piece I posted says that the economy was the issue.  The bit you are talking about is an inference that the reason the economy was a big issue, despite the economy improving, and inflation being tamed, is that wages have not kept pace with the cost of living.  The reason for that of course is wages have stagnated.

[Sheilbh]

From what I've heard from reporters covering the campaign, that was the focus of the last third of the campaign (which is partly what gave me 2016 vibes). That was the closing message.

Other interesting comment about that pollster was that apparently the "don't go back" line really didn't work as a message because lots of voters felt like they were doing pretty well in 2016-20, while 2020-24 was tough. It may seem unfair but I think there's a "rally round the flag"/exceptional circumstances degree of forgiveness from voters for the immediate response to covid, but they expect a lot of governments in the aftermath (I think a bit like a natural disaster).

I think aside from incumbency in general or at this moment it gets a real challenge for Harris with only three months to campaign (but for all VPs running) of how to do continuity and change. I think it's one of the most difficult messages to communicate successfully in politics - and I do have a lot of sympathy for Harris on this (even if I think some form of selection process would have been a better option) because she only had three months to set up that message (and also to experiment and work out what line works).

[Savonarola]

From Al-Jazeera:

'We warned you,' Arab Americans in Michigan tell Kamala Harris

A shift away from pro-Israel Democrats in communities like Dearborn underscores anger over war in Gaza and Lebanon.

Dearborn, Michigan – When Fox News called Pennsylvania for Donald Trump in the early hours of Wednesday, all but confirming that he would be the next president of the United States, there were a handful of Arab activists left at a watch party in Dearborn, Michigan.

"Genocide is bad politics," said one attendee at the event, which had Palestinian and Lebanese flags hanging outside its doors.

As the reality of another Trump presidency set off anger and sorrow from many Democratic commentators, at the Dearborn gathering organised by American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC), there was a sense of indifference – if not vindication.

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris had ignored the community's calls for reconsidering the unconditional US support for Israel. The vice president also continued to assert what she calls "Israel's right to defend itself" despite the brutal atrocities in Gaza and Lebanon.

Activist Adam Abusalah said part of the reason why Harris lost was her decision to side with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the expense of alienating the Democratic base – Arab and Muslim Americans as well as young people and progressives.

"We've been warning the Democrats for over a year now, and the Democrats continue to downplay what's going on."

He added that Harris's main message to the Arab community was to warn of the dangers of a Trump presidency. This tactic failed to work as voters in the area were laser-focused on the continuing war in the Middle East that affected many of them personally.

Dearborn shift
In the Arab-majority suburb of Dearborn, anger over Israel's US-backed assault on Gaza and Lebanon was tangible at the ballot box.

Harris lost the city to Trump by more than 2,600 votes. President Joe Biden beat Trump by more than 17,400 votes – a more than 20,000-vote swing that helped the Republican former president reclaim Michigan.

Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein, who centred opposition to the war in her platform, also performed relatively well in the city, growing her party's support from 207 votes in 2020 to more than 7,600 this year.

Hussein Dabajeh, a Lebanese American political consultant in the Detroit area, noted that Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat, significantly outperformed Harris in Dearborn, receiving more than 9,600 votes than the vice president.

"The Arab community said we're anti-genocide. We supported the candidates that supported the community, and we stood against the candidates that stood against the community," Dabajeh told Al Jazeera.

It is unclear what a Trump presidency will mean for Arab and Muslim Americans and the country at large.

"I hope it's something good. I hope the country comes together. I hope the Democrats are brought to their senses," Dabajeh said.

While the former president has a long history of anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant statements and policies, he has promised to bring "peace" to the region.

Trump also softened his antagonistic tone towards Arabs and Muslims as he courted their communities in Michigan.

He brought Arab and Muslim officials and imams to the stage during his rallies and called them "great people".

Trump also visited Dearborn and listened first-hand to demands to end the war, which Harris failed to do.

'It doesn't stop here'
Ali Alfarjalla, a 32-year-old Iraqi American real estate agent in Dearborn, said that for all his flaws, Trump represents a change from the Biden-Harris administration that has been unflinchingly supporting the Israeli assault on Gaza and Lebanon.

He stressed that the election is not the end of political engagement, saying that the community will press Trump to deliver on his promise of bringing peace to the region.

"It doesn't stop here," Alfarjalla told Al Jazeera.

"We have to work more to make sure our issues are heard – to stop the genocide in Gaza, stop the invasion of south Lebanon, and let Palestine have its own state. We're hopeful about that. That's our number one priority for this community."

He also said that Harris supporters' "lesser of two evils" pitch to the community backfired because many voters could not see a worse evil than the administration providing the bombs that were killing their families and destroying their hometowns.

While both major candidates back Israel, the Harris campaign committed a series of unforced errors that further alienated the community in Michigan and beyond, Arab American advocates told Al Jazeera.

At the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August, the Harris campaign rejected demands to allow a speech by a Palestinian speaker.

The Democratic candidate also turned down a request for a meeting by the Uncommitted Movement, which was founded during the Democratic Primary process to pressure Biden over his unconditional support for Israel.

Unlike Trump, Harris did not visit Dearborn, the de-facto seat of Arab American political and financial power, during her campaign.

Instead, Harris met with handpicked Arab and Muslim "leaders" in Flint, about an hour north of Detroit, last month.

Moreover, Harris campaigned with Liz Cheney in Michigan and welcomed the endorsement of her father, former President Dick Cheney – an architect of the so-called "War on Terror" that devastated the Middle East.

Numerous Arab American activists invoked Harris's embrace of the Cheneys when underscoring her apparent disregard for their communities.

"We had Harris endorsed by neoconservatives like Liz Cheney and Dick Cheney, and she's openly campaigning with them and talking about how great they are," Dearborn councilman Mustapha Hammoud told Al Jazeera on Tuesday night as the results trickled in.

"You know what? I don't think people are willing to vote for George W Bush, so you weren't going to see people vote for Harris, either."

'I smile and laugh at it'

Speaking under a Harris campaign sign last week, former President Bill Clinton claimed that Hamas "forces" Israel to kill Palestinian civilians and suggested that Zionism pre-dates Islam.

The campaign's behaviour led some advocates to question whether the Democratic candidate has given up on the Arab community.

"Vice President Harris has shown over and over again that she actually doesn't want our vote," Uncommitted Movement leader Layla Elabed told Al Jazeera last week.

Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud also noted that the Harris campaign was hesitant to engage Arab Americans directly.

"They don't want the heckling to occur. They don't want to knock on the doors where they think the conversations are going to drag, and the votes might not be there," the mayor told Al Jazeera before the elections.

On the policy front, Harris did not make any concrete promises to the community – even within the acceptable realm of mainstream politics – like reopening the Palestinian diplomatic mission in Washington, DC, or resuming funding for the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA).

In contrast, Biden released platforms for Arab and Muslim Americans in 2020, promising domestic and foreign policy moves sought by the community – many of which went unfulfilled.

Bottom line, many Arab Americans say they already survived four years of Trump while many of their relatives in Palestine and Lebanon did not survive the Biden-Harris presidency.

They say they will continue to push for change, no matter who is in power.

Asked about some liberal social media users attacking Arab Americans and blaming them for Harris's defeat, Alfarjalla said many people in the community have survived war and adversity, so they are not concerned about what others say.

"I smile and laugh at it," he said.

Harris was faced with an dilemma of either alienating Jewish voters or alienating Muslim/activist voters.  She might have done a better job with Arab-American outreach, as the article says, but it really is hard to see how they're better off with Trump.

And, not surprisingly, there's already buyer's remorse:  Trump's pro-Israel cabinet picks upset Muslims who voted for him

[Crazy_Ivan80]

suckers

[Razgovory]

Democrats should have explained that when they said that Trump would be a new Hitler they didn't mean he would be antisemitic.