Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Berkut]

45% of Americans think climate change is not caused by humans but only 7% think climate change doesn't exist?

"Climate change is real but it's a natural phenomenon that we can't do anything about!"

Don't be silly this is America were talking about.

""Climate change is real but it's all part of God's plan.  The godless heathen atheist Democrats want to stop God's plan because they worship Satan."

I know you are being a bit sarcastic, but there is some real logic there. If you start with the premise that the Earth was designed by an intelligent entity as a system for the maintenance of human life that has a particular purpose, it isn't illogical to assume that those systems are reasonably impervious to the machinations of its subjects - or at least impervious enough that it doesn't really matter given the time the humans are intended to be inhabiting said planet.

It's not the only conclusion to arrive at when you start with "Goddidit", but it isn't an entirely irrational one.

And it becomes even easier to accept once you have already internalized the idea that science is pretty sketchy in general, and you can't trust the media because it is all liberal bias and fake news.

[Jacob]

Whether or not we're beyond tipping point, it appears things will get worse during our lifetimes before they get better.

I'm wary of promises of carbon capture technologies. Yes, I think they can and will play an important role in the fight against climate change. However, I also feel there's voices who seem to argue that they will be the magic bullet so that we can otherwise (mostly) keep going as is, and I hope the reliance on that factor doesn't lead to excessive complacency.

Speaking of carbon capture, here's a recent article: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/in-iceland-can-a-revolutionary-new-process-actually-help-stop-global-warming-1.6227198

[viper37]

Didn't I posted this, like 3 weeks ago?

[mongers]

Whether or not we're beyond tipping point, it appears things will get worse during our lifetimes before they get better.

I'm wary of promises of carbon capture technologies. Yes, I think they can and will play an important role in the fight against climate change. However, I also feel there's voices who seem to argue that they will be the magic bullet so that we can otherwise (mostly) keep going as is, and I hope the reliance on that factor doesn't lead to excessive complacency.

Speaking of carbon capture, here's a recent article: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/in-iceland-can-a-revolutionary-new-process-actually-help-stop-global-warming-1.6227198

The UK Climate change committee has said we should be planning to actively manage our climate with those sorts of new technology.

[Syt]

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/g20-leaders-face-tough-climate-talks-second-day-summit-2021-10-30/

G20 offers little new on climate, leaving uphill task for COP26

ROME, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Leaders of the Group of 20 major economies agreed on a final statement on Sunday that urged "meaningful and effective" action to limit global warming, but angering climate activists by offering few concrete commitments.

The result of days of tough negotiation among diplomats leaves huge work to be done at the broader United Nations COP26 climate summit in Scotland, which starts this week.

U.S. President Joe Biden said he was disappointed that more could not have been done and blamed China and Russia for not bringing proposals to the table.

"The disappointment relates to the fact that Russia and ... China basically didn't show up in terms of any commitments to deal with climate change," Biden told reporters.

Although the G20 pledged to stop financing coal power overseas, they set no timetable for phasing it out at home, and watered down the wording on a promise to reduce emissions of methane - another potent greenhouse gas.

However, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who chaired the Rome gathering, hailed the final accord, saying that for the first time all G20 states had agreed on the importance of capping global warming at the 1.5 degrees Celsius level that scientists say is vital to avoid disaster.

"We made sure that our dreams are not only alive but they are progressing," Draghi told a closing news conference, brushing off criticism from environmentalists that the G20 had not gone nearly far enough to resolve the crisis.

The G20, which includes Brazil, China, India, Germany and the United States, accounts for 60% of the world's population and an estimated 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The 1.5C threshold is what UN experts say must be met to avoid a dramatic acceleration of extreme climate events like droughts, storms and floods, and to reach it they recommend net zero emissions should be achieved by 2050.

The stakes are huge - among them the very survival of low-lying countries, the impact on economic livelihoods the world over and the stability of the global financial system.

"This was a moment for the G20 to act with the responsibility they have as the biggest emitters, yet we only see half-measures rather than concrete urgent action," said Friederike Roder, vice president of sustainable development advocacy group Global Citizen.

The final summit document said current national plans on how to curb emissions will have to be strengthened "if necessary" and makes no specific reference to 2050 as a date to achieve net zero carbon emissions.

"We recognise that the impacts of climate change at 1.5°C are much lower than at 2°C. Keeping 1.5°C within reach will require meaningful and effective actions and commitment by all countries," the communique said.

CONSEQUENCES OF INACTION

The leaders only recognised "the key relevance" of halting net emissions "by or around mid-century". This removed the 2050 date seen in previous versions of the final statement so as to make the target less specific.

China, the world's biggest CO2 emitter, has set a target date of 2060, and other large polluters such as India and Russia have also not committed to the 2050 target date.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the agreement was a good signal for COP26, but Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signalled he would have liked to see more ambition.

"There's no question that Canada, along with a number of other countries, would have liked stronger language and stronger commitments on the fight against climate change than others," he told reporters.

U.N. experts say that even if current national plans are fully implemented, the world is headed for global warming of 2.7C, with catastrophic consequences.

Draghi predicted that nations would keep on improving their plans to lower carbon emissions in the years ahead, adding that he was surprised by how far countries like China and Russia had shifted their stance in recent days.

"It is easy to suggest difficult things. It is very, very difficult to actually execute them," he said.

The final G20 statement includes a pledge to halt financing of overseas coal-fired power generation by the end of this year, but set no date for phasing out coal power, promising only to do so "as soon as possible".

This replaced a goal set in a previous draft of the final statement to achieve this by the end of the 2030s, showing the strong resistance from some coal-dependent countries

The G20 also set no date for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, saying they will aim to do so "over the medium term".

METHANE REDUCTION

On methane, which has a more potent but less lasting impact than carbon dioxide on global warming, they diluted their wording from a previous draft that pledged to "strive to reduce our collective methane emissions significantly".

The final statement just recognises that reducing methane emissions is "one of the quickest, most feasible and most cost-effective ways to limit climate change".

G20 sources said negotiations were tough over so-called "climate financing", which refers to a 2009 pledge by rich nations to provide $100 billion per year by 2020 to help developing countries tackle climate change.

They have failed to meet the pledge, generating mistrust and a reluctance among some developing nations to accelerate their emissions reductions.

However, Draghi said the funding gap had narrowed to less than $20 billion and predicted it could be closed further, with wealthy nations considering using financing from the International Monetary Fund to make up the shortfall.

World leaders will kick start COP26 on Monday with two days of speeches that could include some new emissions-cutting pledges, before technical negotiators lock horns over the rules of the 2015 Paris climate accord.

The United Nations said last week greenhouse gas concentrations hit a record in 2020 and the world was "way off track" in capping rising temperatures.

[mongers]

Dont worry Boris will pull it off. 

[Syt]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2021/10/30/flood-vienna-danube-climate-change/

In Vienna, a visionary example of dealing with urban floods


An inlet structure on the Danube that regulates the river's flow between the New Danube and the river's main course during high-water periods, like this one in 2013.

As climate change amplifies extreme weather events around the world, the Viennese defense system built in the 1970s and '80s can protect the city from even a 10,000-year flood

As fatal floods washed away homes in parts of Germany and Belgium this summer, the team that manages Vienna's flood defense knew they had about two days before the deluge reached the city.

The section of the Danube River that runs through the Austrian capital swelled to dangerously high levels. Within three hours on July 17, Austria's meteorological service recorded more rainfall in Vienna than ever before.

And yet the flood defense unit wasn't worried. They lifted the sluice gates of the New Danube and channeled some of the floodwater into this man-made side channel, allowing the river's excess water, debris and tree branches to rush in. Swimming, boating and kayaking were temporarily banned. With the lower banks of Danube Island inundated, the restaurants and bars there remained closed. Everything had gone as planned.

"I think it's fair to say that Vienna has the best flood protection in the world," said Wilfried Fellinger, the engineer who leads the flood defense team.

Across Europe, the catastrophic and deadly July flooding left river communities worried whether their defense systems will suffice as climate change causes more-extreme weather events. Already, the global population at risk of flooding has risen by as much as a quarter, according to a new analysis led by researchers at the University of Arizona. By the end of this decade, millions of people who believe their homes are safe will find that they no longer are.

But the Viennese won't be among them, Fellinger said. Statistically speaking, the flood defense he helped build in the 1980s would protect the city even from a 10,000-year flood. "It's unique," he said. Experts say it's also a bold and visionary example that emphasizes the sweeping approaches many cities will have to take to protect themselves from increasingly common flooding.


A view of the New Danube channel and the Danube River in Vienna in March 2020.

In Vienna, planners used soil excavated from the river channel — essentially a waste product — to raise an island about 13 miles long, roughly the length of Manhattan, and 800 feet wide, with bike and hiking trails zigzagging through meadows and forests and past ponds and a couple of nudist beaches. Moored along its bank is a "school ship," attended by nearly 1,000 students in grades 5 to 12.

"When Vienna takes the top spots in 'most livable city' rankings, then Danube Island as a leisure and recreational area is a big part of that," said Andreas Voigt, a professor of urban planning at Vienna's University of Technology.

The project, Voigt said, also allowed communities on the left bank of the Danube, commonly referred to as "Transdanubia," to sprawl and develop into Vienna's two largest districts. Where cows once grazed in flood zones, one-fifth of the city's 2 million residents have now settled around the city's tallest high-rises, including one of the United Nations' four international headquarters.

What's striking, too — and perhaps a lesson for today's decision-makers — is that politicking took a back seat, said 91-year-old Reinhard Breit, who led urban planning in Vienna when the new flood defense projects were discussed.

"It was an open-ended process where the best ideas won, and not based on partisanship," Breit said.

The first time Vienna tried to tame the Danube and mitigate flooding was in the 1870s. At a cost of $400 million in today's money, the team that had just completed the Suez Canal channeled the river's branches into a single course and fortified it with dikes as tall as a seven-story building. It was a mammoth undertaking — and yet it wasn't bold enough.

The dikes burst not long after World War II, while American, French, British and Russian troops were still stationed in the city. Vienna flooded. For weeks, residents lived in emergency encampments while major roads and buildings were inundated with floodwater.

"It became clear to us that very tough measures would be necessary to really protect Vienna from flooding," Breit said.


Franz Karl, Archduke of Austria, takes part in a rescue operation in the Jägerzeile neighborhood of Vienna in 1830, portrayed in a color engraving by Eduard Gurk.

Looking into historical records, experts and officials found that the city's worst flooding occurred in 1501. Based on that and other facts, the city government determined that a discharge channel would need to absorb up to 14,000 cubic meters of water per second from the river — roughly enough to fill 22,000 Olympic-size swimming pools each hour.

Even for a river the size of the Danube, "that's huge," said Hayley Fowler, a professor of Climate Change Impacts at the Newcastle University School of Engineering in England. When bursting dams and flash floods forced thousands of Central Europeans to flee their homes in 2013 in the worst flooding in centuries, Vienna remained unscathed. The discharge channel still had a quarter of its capacity to go.

Initially, the material that had to be excavated for the channel was to be "deposited somewhere behind the Iron Curtain," Voigt said. Then planners floated the idea of using it to raise an artificial island. "Many wanted to build parking lots or apartment buildings on it, to refinance the construction costs," said Breit, who supported keeping it as a green space.

Either way, the "spaghetti island" was ridiculed by tabloids as well as Vienna's conservative party, which torpedoed the project. The socialist party, however, pushed on, and ended a coalition with the conservatives in 1973, partly because of the island. Construction began around that time, and lasted until 1988.

"Almost instantly, Danube Island became part of the Viennese," said Breit, who went on to teach urban planning at Berlin's Institute of Technology. With striped beach umbrellas, the Viennese staked their claim to the recreational area even before grass had grown on the embankments.

On sunny days, tens of thousands of people now flock to the area, according to city data.

"You really feel like you're in nature, even though you're pretty much in the middle of the city," said Lena Köppler, a 22-year-old theater student who spent a recent Saturday swimming past swans, kayaks and stand-up paddlers. As for most Viennese, she said, the recent flooding was a brief reminder that the channel and island aren't just leisure and entertainment venues; they are their guardians, too.

When delegations from countries such as Sweden, Russia, South Korea, China, Serbia and Slovenia come to learn from Vienna's example, they are impressed, Fellinger said, but most raise the prohibitive costs of compensating property owners to make room for similar projects.

Another issue, Fowler said, "is knowing how big these [flooding] events can get, and what we are planning for." Flood defense projects are generally based on the most recent catastrophe, or evaluations for flooding that, statistically, occurs once a century, she said.

Climate change, however, has made "hundred-year floods" much more common. "Now, you might have two in one decade," said Igor Liska, an expert at the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River, formed by the 14 countries that make the river basin the most international in the world.

Although Vienna might be an exception, Liska and Fowler said that river communities will simply have to live with flooding.

"In the past decades we thought we could protect people 100 percent by building high-enough dikes," Liska said. "But now there is a new concept of living with the floods."

The main goal is to create much larger areas where rainwater can be retained, and to give rivers more space to meander whenever possible.


A flooded walkway over the New Danube in 2013.

From time to time, however, the weather extremes brought by climate change will still prove too much to handle, even for the largest retention areas. With torrential rains like those that caused the Rhine River to flood this summer, Liska said, "it is almost impossible to do anything. So then you have to try to minimize adverse impact."

Raising public awareness — urging people to move out of flood zones or keep their ground floors clear of valuables — can mitigate the impact, he said.

Just like the bold flood defense Vienna conceived in the 1960s, today's solutions could create opportunities for greener cities and more livable spaces.

One option is to turn urban areas into "sponge cities," where sealed surfaces like sidewalks or rooftops are covered with greenery that helps absorb rainwater, said Lamia Messari-Becker, a civil engineering professor at the University of Siegen in Germany and adviser to the German government.

"Even if big channels can retain river flooding, if it rains too much, you still have the issue of the sewers being overcome," Messari-Becker said, "so what we really have to do is make sure that rainwater can seep into the ground as quickly as possible."

Fellinger said climate change is making the 10,000-year flood the city planned for more and more likely.

"It'll come sooner," he said, standing between the computers controlling the sluice gates and an old cathode ray tube TV set. Even then, he said, Danube Island wouldn't be submerged.

For the Danube's flood control, Fellinger said, "there's nothing to improve. We just need to retain what we have."

View of the Donauinsel probably around the time of the Donauinselfest, a free to attend open air festival that (outside of pandemics) takes place on the last weekend in June.

[The Brain]

Does the Wien ever flood?

[Syt]

This is about as bad as it can get:



Usually it looks more like this:



To prevent catastrophic flooding there's also other measures, like emergency reservoirs etc that could be flooded if need be.

[The Brain]

Truly one of the great rivers of the world.

[Berkut]

Ridiculous waste of money. Surely the free market could handle this if they just would let it operate freely!

[viper37]

In Vienna, planners used soil excavated from the river channel — essentially a waste product — to raise an island about 13 miles long, roughly the length of Manhattan, and 800 feet wide, with bike and hiking trails zigzagging through meadows and forests and past ponds and a couple of nudist beaches. Moored along its bank is a "school ship," attended by nearly 1,000 students in grades 5 to 12.

Seems ingenious   Not something we would see around here, for sure.

[Grey Fox]

Another new england state is about to fuck things up by turning down a cleaner energy corridor.

https://ballotpedia.org/Maine_Question_1,_Electric_Transmission_Line_Restrictions_and_Legislative_Approval_Initiative_(2021)

[Josquius]

This is about as bad as it can get:



Usually it looks more like this:



To prevent catastrophic flooding there's also other measures, like emergency reservoirs etc that could be flooded if need be.

That second photo is depressing.

Besides the point of climate change but I do hope to see more smashing of concrete rivers in the future.

[Syt]

It's actually a 19th century project to prevent parts of the inner city from flooding. Some of it is running underground, and the section near center has a nice promenade.