Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Berkut]

What's synthetic biology?

Using technology to modify biology. More specifically, modern processes for DNA gene replication and editing.

Incredibly powerful tools, that could be used for very, very bad things.

Example: Someone thought that it would be a good idea to do some testing on H5N1, to see if it is likely that it could be a lot more contagious then it is - it's R-0 factor, the average number of humans and infected human will transmit the virus to, is tought to be about 0.05. Very low - which is why there have only been something like a couple thousand cases. However, H5N1 is incredibly deadly - something like 60% fatality rate.

So anyway, this doctor at a lab using all the modern viral DNA tweaking, managed to up the R0 factor to something like 2 - basically about what Covid has. Of course, he was testing on ferrets, so its hard to know exactly what it would be with humans, but I am pretty sure we don't want to find out.

The technology that let him do that is going to be more and more readily available, like all technology is. What it takes a dedicated lab of top scientists to do today will be done by grad students in 5 years and by non-scientists in 10.

[Sheilbh]

Met with a Italian friend in Switzerland whilst I was over there. This topic came up a little- his girlfriend is Norwegian and his hope is to move over there, with escaping the scorching climate being a bonus he has actually thought about.
It is a wonder with the Gulf Stream business whether people in Europe should be running north or south.

Also who knows.

I read an article on the impact to the UK which was based on letting models run to 2080 with the Gulf Stream still going or with it being shut down/with "freshwater hosing". Basically with simple warming the UK warms pretty evenly because we're quite small. Everywhere warms by about 1.9 degrees, there's slightly more rain in the Highlands and slightly less in the south and significantly more land is viable for agriculture (I imagine in the Highlands) especially with irrigation.

With no Gulf Stream temperatures would fall about 3.4 degrees but it is less even, so they'd fall more in the Highlands while in the south it would basically be a wash (the fall of 1.9 degrees would off-set the rise of 1.9 degrees). But rain would fall very significantly (by about 120mm during growing seasons) and would reduce the amoung of viable agricultural land to about a third of what it is at the minute.

It was unexpected, I thought the bigger impact would be in temperature but it, apparently, might be that a colder ocean would produce less rainfall so the UK would be a bit colder but significantly drier/more arid. I don't know how much that would also apply for the rest of Europe.

[The Minsky Moment]

Syt, big boring news that most people will ignore. 

Turns out the "skpetics" had a point in emphasizing the uncertainties in climate modeling.

They just forgot uncertainty goes both ways.

[viper37]

Yesterday: 17C.
Today, same time: 30C and climbing.

Damn, I'm cooking.

[crazy canuck]

Syt, big boring news that most people will ignore. 

Turns out the "skpetics" had a point in emphasizing the uncertainties in climate modeling.

They just forgot uncertainty goes both ways.

Yeah, turns out we have even less time until we hit 1.5C.   

[celedhring]

Right now the biggest green controversy around here is the proposed expansion to the Barcelona airport. The areas surrounding it are protected areas, and would need to be removed (the current proposal calls for protecting other areas to compensate). There's also your usual debate about not promoting air travel during a climate emergency, Barcelona's chronic air pollution problems, a healthy dose of NIMBYism, etc...

One MP from JxC (which are in favor) has said the expansion will be amortized before the entire area is flooded because of climate change, so it should go ahead. Now that's not quite the kind of bar I was expecting for public works 

[Tamas]

One MP from JxC (which are in favor) has said the expansion will be amortized before the entire area is flooded because of climate change, so it should go ahead. Now that's not quite the kind of bar I was expecting for public works 

Now that's some hyper-practical approach right there.

[Maladict]

48.8 degrees in Sicily, hottest day on record in Europe.

[mongers]

48.8 degrees in Sicily, hottest day on record in Europe.

Yeah that's astonishing.

And I'll wager 50C will be broken before the decade is out.

[jimmy olsen]

48.8 degrees in Sicily, hottest day on record in Europe.

Brutally  hot

[Eddie Teach]

That's a bit chilly though... /usa

[Jacob]

That's a bit chilly though... /usa

119.8 degrees Fahrenheit is pretty hot, I think.

[crazy canuck]

48.8 degrees in Sicily, hottest day on record in Europe.

And just think, a degree cooler than Lytton BC, the day before it burned to the ground last month.

[Eddie Teach]

That's a bit chilly though... /usa

119.8 degrees Fahrenheit is pretty hot, I think.

Whoosh?

[Sheilbh]

Apparently the last three nuclear groups who'd been applying have had their applications to attend COP26 denied. Feels a little bit of a problem that the world's second largest source of non-carbon emitting energy (after hydro) is basically shut out of a big conference on reducing carbon emissions and energy transition

It's not the entire solution, but I feel like it has to be a part of it.