Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[merithyn]

Air quality in my neighborhood is now Hazardous at 318. My chest and throat feel incredibly tight, my eyes are red and itching, and I can't stop coughing. Everything is shut down and I have two fans with filters on them going. Thank the gods that it's cool out today.

I can't stay here. I'm thinking about getting a hotel room somewhere, but the only place within an easy drive is the coast, and they're packed. No thank you. COVID right now will kill me.

Seedy said that the air quality up by him isn't much better thanks to a shift in the wind. He's getting our smoke, plus there are new fires in his area.

[Syt]

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-hasnt-warmed-this-fast-in-tens-of-millions-of-years/

Earth Hasn't Warmed This Fast in Tens of Millions of Years

Chemical analyses of ancient sediments allowed scientists to put together one of the most comprehensive climate histories of the planet

Scientists just completed one of the most comprehensive investigations of Earth's climate history—and the findings aren't favorable.

They found that the planet could eventually warm to levels it hasn't reached in at least 34 million years.

The researchers, led by Thomas Westerhold of the University of Bremen in Germany, constructed datasets using chemical analyses of ancient sediments, drilled from the bottom of the ocean. These sediments, some of which are 66 million years old, are filled with the preserved shells of tiny organisms that can tell scientists about the temperature and chemical composition of the ocean when they were formed.

The sediments, collected from around the world over the course of many years, allowed the researchers to reconstruct Earth's climate history going back to the mass extinction that killed three-quarters of the planet's species, including dinosaurs.

They found that the planet has passed through four distinct climate phases: warmhouse, hothouse, coolhouse and icehouse states.

Transitions from one state to another have generally depended on changing greenhouse gas levels, often driven by volcanic eruptions and other natural processes, and shifts in the Earth's orbit that affected the amount of solar energy reaching the planet.

In the hottest phases, more than 50 million years ago, temperatures on Earth were more than 10 degrees Celsius hotter than they are today. But it's important to note that it took the planet thousands or even millions of years to reach these levels—and that was long before humans ever walked the Earth.

That's in stark contrast to the kind of climate change that human activity is driving today.

For several million years now, the world has been in an icehouse state. But that's quickly changing. If human societies do nothing to curb their greenhouse gas emissions, in just a few centuries the Earth could once again reach a temperature threshold not seen for at least 34 million years.

Before the industrial era, such a magnitude of warming would have taken thousands of years to occur, at least.

"If you look at the worst-case scenario [by 2300], the change in mean global temperature is larger than most of the natural variability going back over the last 66 million years related to changes in the Earth's orbit," said Jim Zachos, a paleoclimatologist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and a co-author of the new study, which was published Thursday in the journal Science.

It's not an inevitable future. With immediate and stringent action to reduce climate change, the world can keep global temperatures from rising more than a few degrees above their preindustrial levels.

But the study does warn that without these efforts, Earth is on track for some of the strongest, fastest climate change the planet has ever experienced.

The study may also provide some important insights into how climate change could unfold in the coming decades and centuries.

Earth's climate doesn't always shift in linear, predictable ways. There are all kinds of feedback processes that can speed things up or slow things down—such as the speed at which glaciers and sea ice melt or the way that clouds change in response to future warming.

In the ancient past, for instance, the study suggests that the world's ice sheets played an important role in regulating the pace and predictability of the Earth's climate response to natural changes in greenhouse gases or orbital shifts. Today, scientists believe that the world's melting ice may also have a big impact on future climate change.

These kinds of feedback processes can make it challenging to predict future change, especially over relatively short periods of time.

Reconstructing the Earth's long-term climate history can help scientists test the models they use to predict its future. If a model can accurately simulate the past, scientists may have more confidence in its ability to simulate present-day climate processes.

"That's the beauty of this record," Zachos said. "It's something we've always wanted to have because of the applicability to testing climate theory."

Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.

[The Brain]

Still can't do nuclear though. It is imperative that we wait for a unicorn.

[crazy canuck]

Air quality is 228 this morning - Very Unhealthy. 

But an improvement on what we had over the past week.

[merithyn]

Air quality is 228 this morning - Very Unhealthy. 

But an improvement on what we had over the past week.

Down to 340 today! From 580 overnight.

No, I'm not breathing any easier.

[crazy canuck]

I would die.  I would literally die.

[merithyn]

I'm headed to convenient care right now. Breathing shouldn't be this hard.

[PDH]

Worst it has been here has been 300, but since we're right on the coast and the winds push things inland it has "only" been in the low 100s for about a week.  Now, inland gets all the extra stuff and it has been about twice what it is here.

[merithyn]

Doc said that yes, I appear to be struggling from the air quality. She gave me enough prednisone to get me through the next three days, told me to stay inside until the AQ is under 200, and pray for rain tomorrow. If things don't improve, go to the ER.

Great. American healthcare is now on the prayer train.

[Tamas]

Great. American healthcare is now on the prayer train.

What's the going rate?

[Valmy]

I will pray for you sister Meri

[merithyn]

Great. American healthcare is now on the prayer train.

What's the going rate?

My copay was $30?

[merithyn]

'It's A Bit Surreal': Oregon's Air Quality Suffers As Fires Complicate COVID-19 Fight

Wildfires are destroying homes and communities on the West Coast — and they are also creating some of the world's worst air pollution in a region usually known for its clean living and stunning views. The fires and massive plumes of smoke are also affecting the fight to control COVID-19.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's air quality monitoring website Airnow.gov currently lists Portland's air as "hazardous" Monday, with air quality index readings that have ranged from 350 to more than 515.

"When the forecast is Purple (very unhealthy), everyone needs to cut back on outdoor activities," the EPA site advises. It forecasts "very unhealthy" air quality for Tuesday.


"It's a bit surreal," says Dr. Jennifer Vines, the lead health officer for the Portland metro region, "to have these compounding public health issues," air quality risks and a pandemic.

Health experts are urging residents to stay indoors to avoid inhaling smoke and ash particles from the unprecedented fires.

The international air quality monitoring website IQAir.com ranked Portland as No. 1 for worst air quality among the world's cities on Monday morning – worse than notoriously polluted spots in countries such as India, China and Israel. Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles were also in the top 10, reflecting the wildfires' huge size and broad impact.

Dozens of large blazes have now burned more than 4.6 million acres in 10 states, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. That includes more than 1.5 million acres in Oregon and Washington, the Northwest Coordination Center says.

Wildfire smoke can be lethal. While it often appears as a large cloud, Vines says the smoke is made up of lots of tiny particles, each much smaller than the diameter of a human hair. "These particles can penetrate deep into the lungs and even cross into the bloodstream," she adds.

People who are most in danger are older and those with underlying lung or heart conditions. Children are also at a greater risk, Vines says, "because they breathe higher air volumes relative to the size of their bodies and because their airways are smaller."

The wildfires are also complicating Oregon's COVID-19 strategies.

Before the fires, health care professionals were urging people to get outdoors — but now they've reversed that advice. Testing rates for the coronavirus have dropped. And as people get out of harm's way, many of them are also mixing together indoors.

"We're going to be watching COVID testing numbers and hospital capacity really closely in the coming weeks," Vines says. She adds, "But I think right now many of us are just going one day at a time," trying to keep people safe.

What's worse, Vines says, "it's the same people who are at higher risk of complications from wildfire smoke and from COVID. We know many of them in the Portland area are Black, Indigenous or people of color."

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration is urging employers to provide N95 masks if employees are asked to work outdoors. If employees have underlying medical conditions, the agency is asking that they be allowed to stay home.

The National Weather Service issued a dense smoke and fog advisory for the northern Oregon coast Monday, saying visibility would be reduced to as little as 50 feet.

[Eddie Teach]

Doc said that yes, I appear to be struggling from the air quality. She gave me enough prednisone to get me through the next three days, told me to stay inside until the AQ is under 200, and pray for rain tomorrow. If things don't improve, go to the ER.

Great. American healthcare is now on the prayer train.

Now?

[Syt]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/us/politics/trump-biden-climate-change-fires.html

As Trump Again Rejects Science, Biden Calls Him a 'Climate Arsonist'

The president visited California after weeks of silence on its wildfires and blamed the crisis only on poor forest management, not climate change. "I don't think science knows" what is happening, he said.

WASHINGTON — With wildfires raging across the West, climate change took center stage in the race for the White House on Monday as former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. called President Trump a "climate arsonist" while the president said that "I don't think science knows" what is actually happening.

A day of dueling appearances laid out the stark differences between the two candidates, an incumbent president who has long scorned climate change as a hoax and rolled back environmental regulations and a challenger who has called for an aggressive campaign to curb the greenhouse gases blamed for increasingly extreme weather.

Mr. Trump flew to California after weeks of public silence about the flames that have forced hundreds of thousands of people from their homes, wiped out communities and forests, burned millions of acres, shrouded the region in smoke and left at least 27 people dead. But even when confronted by California's governor and other state officials, the president insisted on attributing the crisis solely to poor forest management, not climate change.

Mr. Biden, for his part, assailed Mr. Trump's record on the climate, asserting that the president's inaction and denial had fed destruction, citing not just the current emergency on the West Coast but flooding in the Midwest and hurricanes along the Gulf Coast. In an outdoor speech at a museum in Wilmington, Del., the Democratic presidential nominee sought to paint a second Trump term as a danger to the nation's suburbs, flipping an attack on him by the president.

"If we have four more years of Trump's climate denial, how many suburbs will be burned in wildfires?" Mr. Biden asked. "How many suburban neighborhoods will have been flooded out? How many suburbs will have been blown away in superstorms? If you give a climate arsonist four more years in the White House, why would anyone be surprised if we have more of America ablaze?"

The politicking came as firefighting teams across the West Coast battled shifting winds and drier weather on Monday, sparking additional fire fronts that threatened to make new kindling out of forests and cover more of the country with hazardous smoke and falling ash. By Monday afternoon, haze had spread across much of the United States and could be seen over New York and Washington.

Heavy smoke kept some firefighting aircraft grounded as fire pushed into new areas, prompting fresh evacuations in Idaho, Oregon and California.

In Oregon, with a confirmed death toll of 10 along with 22 others missing, Gov. Kate Brown said the state was getting firefighting support from as far as North Dakota and Michigan. She expressed gratitude for the national assistance, saying the state could use all the help it could get. "Without question, our state has been pushed to its limits," Ms. Brown said.

Doug Grafe, the chief of fire protection at the Oregon Department of Forestry, said crews had made progress containing fires. But he said rains anticipated to fall Monday were not materializing and winds threatened to exacerbate fire conditions in some areas. Mr. Grafe said the rains that may now come on Wednesday or Thursday could also include lightning, raising the danger of new fires.

Mr. Trump, who had come under intense criticism for barely addressing the crisis before, interrupted a western campaign swing to make a two-hour visit to an airport in McClellan Park outside Sacramento, where Air Force One descended through a smoky haze. Not far away, one of the biggest fires, now largely contained, recently burned more than 363,000 acres.

As soon as the president disembarked from the plane at Sacramento McClellan Airport, where the stench of smoke filled the air, he did not wait for his scheduled briefing to tell reporters that the cause of the conflagration was poor forest management, not climate change.

"When trees fall down after a short period of time, they become very dry — really like a matchstick," Mr. Trump said. "And they can explode. Also leaves. When you have dried leaves on the ground, it's just fuel for the fires."

At his subsequent briefing, however, Gov. Gavin Newsom and his top environmental adviser pushed the president to acknowledge the role of climate change. Mr. Newsom, a Democrat, made a point of doing so exceedingly politely, reaffirming his working relationship with the president, thanking him for federal help and agreeing that forest management needed to be improved.

But Mr. Newsom noted that only 3 percent of land in California is under state control while 57 percent is federal forest land, meaning under the president's management as governed by federal law.

"As you suggest, the working relationship I value," Mr. Newsom said. But he said climate change clearly was a factor. "Something's happening to the plumbing of the world, and we come from a perspective, humbly, where we submit the science is in and observed evidence is self-evident that climate change is real, and that is exacerbating this."

He went on: "And so I think there's an area of at least commonality on vegetation, forest management. But please respect — and I know you do — the difference of opinion out here as it relates to this fundamental issue on the issue of climate change."

Mr. Trump did not argue the point. "Absolutely," he said, and then turned the floor over to another briefer.

But Wade Crowfoot, California's secretary for natural resources, pressed Mr. Trump more bluntly. "If we ignore that science and sort of put our head in the sand and think it's all about vegetation management, we're not going to succeed together protecting Californians," he told the president.

This time, Mr. Trump rejected the premise. "It'll start getting cooler," he insisted. "You just watch."

"I wish science agreed with you," Mr. Crowfoot replied.

"Well, I don't think science knows, actually," Mr. Trump retorted, maintaining a tense grin.

Other California officials who were not present rejected Mr. Trump's view. Mayor Darrell Steinberg of Sacramento said it was a positive development that the president made the trip to demonstrate concern. "Showing up matters," he said in an interview. "But more important is what you actually do. The country desperately needs national leadership around the climate emergency."

Some environmental specialists said that Mr. Trump had a point about forest management but that it should not be an excuse to deny climate science and refuse to take action.

"Raking the leaves and forest floors is really inane. That doesn't make sense at all," said Ralph Propper, the president of the Environmental Council of Sacramento. "We're seeing what was predicted, which is more extremes of weather."

Mr. Trump got some backing from hundreds of supporters who gathered outside the airport, some of them echoing his point about culling forests to prevent the kind of outbreak consuming the region. "I think they should have been cutting trees" ahead of fire season, said Rachel Moses, 43, of Roseville, Calif., who was wearing a pink Trump hat and brought her two sons with her.

Experts say climate change, the management of public lands and decisions over where to site housing all contribute to wildfires. Mr. Trump has exclusively blamed poor forest management and last year issued an executive order directing agencies to cut down more trees, arguing that expanding timber harvesting would reduce forest fires.

Mr. Biden, on the other hand, has proposed spending $2 trillion over four years to escalate the use of clean energy and ultimately phase out the burning of oil, gas and coal. He has pledged to build 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations, build 1.5 million new energy-efficient homes and eliminate carbon pollution from the power sector by 2035.

In his speech at the Delaware Museum of Natural History, Mr. Biden accused Mr. Trump of making the country more vulnerable by denying climate change. He made a case for treating the reduction of fossil fuel emissions as a nonpartisan issue that could create manufacturing jobs while preserving the planet.

"We have to act as a nation," Mr. Biden said. "It shouldn't be so bad that millions of Americans live in the shadow of an orange sky, and they're left asking: 'Is doomsday here?'"

Mr. Biden also sought to tie Mr. Trump's rejection of the scientific consensus on climate to his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

"I think this is a larger narrative that you're just now starting to see emerge out of the Biden campaign," said Anthony Leiserowitz, the director of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. "Climate change becomes Exhibit A in a much broader case he's making about the fact that Donald Trump is out of touch with reality."

Whit Ayres, a Republican political consultant, said Mr. Trump was not helping himself politically by continuing to reject climate science. "It's gotten to the point," he said, "where denying the fundamental reality of climate change is no longer a credible position."