China's Self-Inflicted Demographic Disaster Is Here

Started by jimmy olsen, November 02, 2015, 08:15:56 AM

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Eddie Teach

Quote from: Monoriu on November 02, 2015, 10:04:06 PM
You want your tales, you pay for it :contract:

You want your higher population, *you* pay for it :contract:
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Monoriu

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on November 02, 2015, 10:56:54 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 02, 2015, 10:04:06 PM
You want your tales, you pay for it :contract:

You want your higher population, *you* pay for it :contract:

That's not how it works.  Individual actions have no impact on the group outcome.  I want a bigger population, somebody else pay for it :contract:

Razgovory

I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Martinus

If you paid me $10 million, I would sire a child myself.

Valmy

Quote from: Martinus on November 06, 2015, 05:45:25 PM
If you paid me $10 million, I would sire a child myself.

That would be one lucky child

Oh wait just to sire it? How much more would I have to pay for you to raise it?
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

dps

If I were still single, I'd sire as many kids as you like, as long as you took financial responsibility for them and I got to pick the mothers.

garbon

Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2015, 06:24:01 PM
Quote from: Martinus on November 06, 2015, 05:45:25 PM
If you paid me $10 million, I would sire a child myself.

That would be one lucky child

Oh wait just to sire it? How much more would I have to pay for you to raise it?

With 10 mil, I think I could afford to send it off to boarding school. :cool:
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Valmy

Quote from: garbon on November 06, 2015, 07:07:47 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2015, 06:24:01 PM
Quote from: Martinus on November 06, 2015, 05:45:25 PM
If you paid me $10 million, I would sire a child myself.

That would be one lucky child

Oh wait just to sire it? How much more would I have to pay for you to raise it?

With 10 mil, I think I could afford to send it off to boarding school. :cool:

That isn't the deal :angry:

I wanted somebody for Marty to pass his knowledge of analogies to.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

grumbler

Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2015, 08:22:49 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 06, 2015, 07:07:47 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2015, 06:24:01 PM
Quote from: Martinus on November 06, 2015, 05:45:25 PM
If you paid me $10 million, I would sire a child myself.

That would be one lucky child

Oh wait just to sire it? How much more would I have to pay for you to raise it?

With 10 mil, I think I could afford to send it off to boarding school. :cool:

That isn't the deal :angry:

I wanted somebody for Marty to pass his knowledge of analogies to.
:lmfao:
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

The Minsky Moment

Let's look at some facts.

Per the CIA Factbook, the PRC birth rate is 12.49 per 1000.  Which is exactly tied with the US, and just ahead of France and the UK.  In comparison, Taiwan - which has some cultural and geographical similarities, but does not have a coercive population control policy -- is at 8.47.  In terms of children/woman, it is 1.6 in the PRC, as compared to 1.12 in Taiwan.

Some speculations/proposed interpretations:

+ Although the PRC population control policy is a horrific policy, it's not clear at least at this point that is a the key influencer, or even a significant one, on the rate of births and population growth.
+ PRC demographics suggest future challenges, but not insurmountable ones.
+ Recent economic data in the PRC - slowing top line growth rates, slowing investment rates, high wage growth, movement of cheap labor production to Vietnam/Burma/etch., - all are suggestive of a transition to higher productivity production and ultimately a higher consumption/investment mix.
+ Such transitions can be very tricky and it is still very early stage at the PRC.  So it could fail or go massively wrong. 
+ OTOH PRC has handled other tricky economic transitions remarkably effectively since 1979 so I would hesitate to pronounce doom and gloom.

The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Monoriu

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 09, 2015, 01:31:42 PM
Let's look at some facts.

Per the CIA Factbook, the PRC birth rate is 12.49 per 1000.  Which is exactly tied with the US, and just ahead of France and the UK.  In comparison, Taiwan - which has some cultural and geographical similarities, but does not have a coercive population control policy -- is at 8.47.  In terms of children/woman, it is 1.6 in the PRC, as compared to 1.12 in Taiwan.

Some speculations/proposed interpretations:

+ Although the PRC population control policy is a horrific policy, it's not clear at least at this point that is a the key influencer, or even a significant one, on the rate of births and population growth.
+ PRC demographics suggest future challenges, but not insurmountable ones.
+ Recent economic data in the PRC - slowing top line growth rates, slowing investment rates, high wage growth, movement of cheap labor production to Vietnam/Burma/etch., - all are suggestive of a transition to higher productivity production and ultimately a higher consumption/investment mix.
+ Such transitions can be very tricky and it is still very early stage at the PRC.  So it could fail or go massively wrong. 
+ OTOH PRC has handled other tricky economic transitions remarkably effectively since 1979 so I would hesitate to pronounce doom and gloom.

The fact that China's birthrate is about the same as the US birthrate is cause for concern.  China is no where near as developed as the US.  In other words, China still has a long way to go but now has far fewer human resources at its disposal.  Also, the US receives a lot of immigrants, whereas China is not exactly a target for immigrants.  Lots of Chinese want to move to the US, but the reverse is not true.