China to end one-child policy towards two-children policy

[The Larch]

China to end one-child policy

China has decided to end its decades-long one-child policy, Xinhua news agency reports.

All couples will now be allowed to have two children, the state-run news agency said, citing a statement from the Communist Party.

The controversial policy was introduced nationally in 1979, to reduce the country's birth rate and slow the population growth rate.

However, concerns at China's ageing population led to pressure for change.

The one-child policy is estimated to have prevented about 400m births since it began.

Couples who violated the policy faced a variety of punishments, from fines and the loss of employment to forced abortions.

Over time, the policy was relaxed in some provinces, as demographers and sociologists raised concerns about rising social costs and falling worker numbers.

The Communist Party began formally relaxing national rules two years ago, allowing couples in which at least one of the pair is an only child to have a second child.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34665539

[Monoriu]

The one child policy is a self-inflicted wound.  Think what an additional 400m cheap workers can do to boost the economy. 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

given that the biggest drop in chinese fertility took place before the one-child policy...

[Josquius]

I thought the policy was a bit of a myth anyway. Doesn't it only apply to 30% of the population or so?

[Monoriu]

I thought the policy was a bit of a myth anyway. Doesn't it only apply to 30% of the population or so?

Like most Chinese laws, it is compliated, there are lots of loopholes and the implementation is uneven to say the least.  I think minorities are exempt.  If both parents are themselves the only child in their families, they are exempt.  You can pay fines to have more children too.  The biggest obstacle to removing the policy is that there are a whole bunch of bureaucrats already on the job. 

[HisMajestyBOB]

I think rural families are also somewhat exempt.
And there was something about being able to have more kids if the first and/or second are girls.
My wife is the oldest of three, with a younger sister and brother, and she grew up in the rural part of Jiangxi province.

[crazy canuck]

It is probably a case of there being so many exemptions that it was counterproductive to keep the policy.  It made the few that were still caught by the policy angry and it required a highly inefficient regulatory burden to administer and police.

[grumbler]

Like most Chinese laws, it is compliated, there are lots of loopholes and the implementation is uneven to say the least.  I think minorities are exempt.  If both parents are themselves the only child in their families, they are exempt.  You can pay fines to have more children too.  The biggest obstacle to removing the policy is that there are a whole bunch of bureaucrats already on the job.

A Chinese commentator on NPR yesterday noted that one of the big reasons to shift to a two-child policy rather than scrapping the policy was that so many people are employed in keeping track of childbirth that a drop of the policy would cause unhappiness among those who had used their party connections to get those jobs.  That,and the idea that a full retreat would likely highlight the fact that neighboring countries had similar declines in birthrates without such a policy.  The "saved 400 million births" bit is not true.  Even groups who could have two children often did not, except in rural areas where families wanted the labor.

[Monoriu]

This will help stability too.  Conflict with the One Child Policy Office is a significant source of unrest at the local level.  So someone gave birth to a child without approval.  The child is already born.  The One Child people will try to get "compensation" from the parents for the harm that the child will do to the country.  By any means necessary. 

[MadImmortalMan]

Do you think they can hold out long enough to stave off the property collapse? I mean, isn't it already beginning?

[Monoriu]

Do you think they can hold out long enough to stave off the property collapse? I mean, isn't it already beginning?

Chinese are practical.  There is a lot of demand for improved governance.  More accountability from officials, better health care, more affordable housing, a more independent judiciary, fewer restrictions on internet use, better food safety, proper compensation for people whose land is confiscated for development, etc etc.  While this is a really long list, you'll note that the fundamental demand is for the communisty party to do a better job, and that the call for democracy isn't that strong.  There is no alternative political party that is ready to take up governance.  There is a real fear that, if the communist party falls, China will descend into anarchy and chaos.