It’s Time for the United States to Start Worrying About a Saudi Collapse

[DGuller]

When I say a lot of foreigners in the country, I mean a lot.  There's 20 million Saudi nationals.  There are 9 million foreign workers.  That alone should tell you the country is really fucked up.  I wish there was a solution.  There is an incompetent tyrannical Monarchy keeping the lid on country of vicious, bigoted, lazy jackasses.  We see right now how bad things are in Syria without Baathist control, and the Baathists are mass murdering fascists.  When the people of Syria are out of Baathist control they actually manage to be worse.  Just remember, no matter how bad things are, they can get worse.  And the in the Middle East it probably will.

Okay, okay.  Can we at least put Baathists in charge there?   

[Razgovory]

Look guys, I have no solution for this.  I don't pretend too.  I think we are just watching the 30 years war being waged in the Middle East and the War is like a whirlpool sucking in neighboring countries and devouring whole peoples. Bellum se ipsum alet.  The best I can think of is we stay away from it as much as possible and hope that in a few decades the people of the Middle East learn that they are going to have to tolerate one another.  It just seems a shame that so many people will have to die before this idea gets through their skulls.

[Berkut]

If ISIS had decided to make it illegal to be those men, and then immediately found them guilty of that crime and had a judge order their execution, would that have been justice?

No, that would just be slapping the façade of justice on murder.

[The Minsky Moment]

Perhaps before we collectively expend more energy gaming out the Saudi collapse scenario, it's worth pointing out it's pretty low probability.  None of the factors identified by the article suggest significant risk of the regime toppling and indeed the author admits that.

[viper37]

it's worth pointing out it's pretty low probability. 

spoilsport!

[Berkut]

Perhaps before we collectively expend more energy gaming out the Saudi collapse scenario, it's worth pointing out it's pretty low probability.  None of the factors identified by the article suggest significant risk of the regime toppling and indeed the author admits that.

These kinds of regimes coming unraveled always seem like a low probability event before they happen, then almost inevitable afterwards.

[Admiral Yi]

The Economist had an article on how the price of oil (manufactured by the Saudis themselves) is fucking up their finances.  15% budget deficit this year, after 20-30% surpluses.

[DGuller]

The Economist had an article on how the price of oil (manufactured by the Saudis themselves) is fucking up their finances.  15% budget deficit this year, after 20-30% surpluses.

If you had 20-30% surplus years, you can remain unconcerned about 15% budget deficits for quite some time.

[The Minsky Moment]

The Economist had an article on how the price of oil (manufactured by the Saudis themselves) is fucking up their finances.  15% budget deficit this year, after 20-30% surpluses.

Saudi foreign reserves fell by about 85 Billion in the last year.  Which is bad, but .. . they still have 650 billion left.  So there is a cushion there to ride out the price dip for a while.  Of course if prices stay low for a decade, all bets are off.

[The Minsky Moment]

These kinds of regimes coming unraveled always seem like a low probability event before they happen, then almost inevitable afterwards.

There really isn't a comparable regime.
As the article indicates, the biggest threats come from inside the family.
There isn't any domestic political organization that wants to out the family.

[mongers]

These kinds of regimes coming unraveled always seem like a low probability event before they happen, then almost inevitable afterwards.

There really isn't a comparable regime.
As the article indicates, the biggest threats come from inside the family.
There isn't any domestic political organization that wants to out the family.

They might be able to summon some of the brutality used in Syria to put down opponents, but I doubt they have the staying power of the Assad family/clan, Saudis can be literally rather flighty eg August 1990 and Nov 79.