Russian Military Uses Syria as Proving Ground, and West Takes Notice

[Eddie Teach]

It is not worrying news, it is great news.

American society(the west) fairs better when we have an enemy to fight.

We never actually fought against Russia.

Anyway, China is the greater rival now, and Russia bankrupting itself on military expenditures won't change that.

[crazy canuck]

Sort of like how Athens used Syracuse as a proving ground.

Or the Germans used Spain.

[Valmy]

Sort of like how Athens used Syracuse as a proving ground.

Or the Germans used Spain.

So...Putin=Hitler? Pretty sure he has to be President of the United States to be Hitler.

[Berkut]

I do not disagree with this, but it is clear that the "conventional inferiority" is diminishing, especially in a practical, as opposed to "on paper" evaluation.

When you see NATO countries, regardless of their on paper conventional sophistication, having to ask the US for basic support and munitions because they simply have not bothered to actually buy the basic munitions, fuel, and parts to actually deploy their on paper advanced weapons systems, the news that Russia is successfully deploying and using weapons systems that are in fact closing the gap with the European paper systems is cause for concern. Not alarm, by any means, but concern.

I don't think people realize the import of what Russia is doing in Syria in this context. They are practicing and proving that they can, at a supra-regional (but hardly global) range, project military power in a manner that I am not sure any country in the world other than the US can do without significant help from the US.

This is not trivial.

I agree as far as it goes - but there is another side to this issue: the US projects force at an enormous financial cost. The costs of doing so strain even the US budget. Russia is attempting to match the US - but its finances are shambolic by comparison, and Russia has multiple fronts it needs to watch - Syria, Eastern Ukraine, Jihadists, etc.

Can Russia match the US in terms of foreign deployment on an economy that was the same size as ... Italy's? The strain is already starting to show - Putin had to in effect steal from Russian's pension fund recently. The price of oil remains in the shitter, depressing the Russian economy; and sanctions are still in place. Sure, the Russian population is fired up on nationalistic propaganda to an absurd degree, but how long can they pay for these adventures? It isn't like intervening in Syria is likely to result in financial gain.

I seem to recall that one of the arguments around the fall of the Soviet Union is that it in effect broke itself through financial overstretch, in part by trying to match the US militarily. Is this history repeating itself?

Don't get me wrong - I don't think that this incredible spending on the military by Russia is a good idea, sustainable, or anything like that. I think it is disastrous for Russia in the long run.

But plenty of countries have caused plenty of trouble in the short or medium run taking actions that were grossly unsustainable in the long run.

[Malthus]

Don't get me wrong - I don't think that this incredible spending on the military by Russia is a good idea, sustainable, or anything like that. I think it is disastrous for Russia in the long run.

But plenty of countries have caused plenty of trouble in the short or medium run taking actions that were grossly unsustainable in the long run.

That's a good point.

Though in the scheme of things - the Russians using Syria as a proving-ground is mostly a medium to long-range trouble-making exercise. After all, unless they engage the Turks or (much less likely) the Israelis, there is a limit to the amount of damage they can do in Syria itself - I mean, the place is already broken. The point of engaging in Syria (in this theory) is as a demonstration of Russian might, technology, ability and resolve, and making such demonstrations is a relatively long-range strategy - it is intended to change minds about Russia when the next crisis energes.

It would be ironic if, in making the gesture/demonstration, the Russians use up their reserves of resources, actually exhausting their realistic threat. 

[Grey Fox]

It is not worrying news, it is great news.

American society(the west) fairs better when we have an enemy to fight.

We never actually fought against Russia.

Anyway, China is the greater rival now, and Russia bankrupting itself on military expenditures won't change that.

China is all smoke & mirror. It still needs to the USA to feed itself.

[Zanza]

I seem to recall that one of the arguments around the fall of the Soviet Union is that it in effect broke itself through financial overstretch, in part by trying to match the US militarily. Is this history repeating itself?

[Razgovory]

It is not worrying news, it is great news.

American society(the west) fairs better when we have an enemy to fight.

We never actually fought against Russia.

Anyway, China is the greater rival now, and Russia bankrupting itself on military expenditures won't change that.

China is all smoke & mirror. It still needs to the USA to feed itself.

It's increasingly obvious that the same could be said of Russia.

[Malthus]

I seem to recall that one of the arguments around the fall of the Soviet Union is that it in effect broke itself through financial overstretch, in part by trying to match the US militarily. Is this history repeating itself?

Heh it's a classic cartoon. 

[KRonn]

Don't get me wrong - I don't think that this incredible spending on the military by Russia is a good idea, sustainable, or anything like that. I think it is disastrous for Russia in the long run.

But plenty of countries have caused plenty of trouble in the short or medium run taking actions that were grossly unsustainable in the long run.

That's a good point.

Though in the scheme of things - the Russians using Syria as a proving-ground is mostly a medium to long-range trouble-making exercise. After all, unless they engage the Turks or (much less likely) the Israelis, there is a limit to the amount of damage they can do in Syria itself - I mean, the place is already broken. The point of engaging in Syria (in this theory) is as a demonstration of Russian might, technology, ability and resolve, and making such demonstrations is a relatively long-range strategy - it is intended to change minds about Russia when the next crisis energes.

It would be ironic if, in making the gesture/demonstration, the Russians use up their reserves of resources, actually exhausting their realistic threat.

Agreed and as I said from the first, this is more of a long term strategy for Russia to gain some dominance in a region where the US/west has dominated for decades, especially to under cut the US. Russia is trying to cozy up with US allies and friends in the region. Saudi Arabia, Egypt where it has advisers, and other nations.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

one advantage is that we get to see the Russian stuff in action a bit. That info must be worth something too

[Valmy]

Agreed and as I said from the first, this is more of a long term strategy for Russia to gain some dominance in a region where the US/west has dominated for decades, especially to under cut the US. Russia is trying to cozy up with US allies and friends in the region. Saudi Arabia, Egypt where it has advisers, and other nations.

There is a reason China has not been clamoring for influence in that region. Russia can have it.

[Grey Fox]

It is not worrying news, it is great news.

American society(the west) fairs better when we have an enemy to fight.

We never actually fought against Russia.

Anyway, China is the greater rival now, and Russia bankrupting itself on military expenditures won't change that.

China is all smoke & mirror. It still needs to the USA to feed itself.

It's increasingly obvious that the same could be said of Russia.

Yes but Russia is a better enemy than the chinese will ever be.

[Valmy]

Yes but Russia is a better enemy than the chinese will ever be.

Why?

And I do not consider the Chinese an enemy. A rival perhaps but not an enemy.

[Razgovory]

Yes but Russia is a better enemy than the chinese will ever be.

Why?

And I do not consider the Chinese an enemy. A rival perhaps but not an enemy.

Because they fancy themselves a world power and desperately want the world to see them that way.  It causes them to act... irrationally sometimes.