NFL Week 5 - Someone has to make these threads dammit

Started by Baron von Schtinkenbutt, October 08, 2015, 01:52:50 PM

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sbr

You have to remember that the bookmakers aren't trying to predict the final score, they are trying to get 50% of the money on both sides of the bet.  That way they break even on the bet and win with the rake.  I would guess that New England is a team that a lot of people like to bet on, so their lines are usually a bit smaller than they would be if the book was trying to predict the score.

Liep

It's the Mermaid Bowl (Danish Super Bowl) between Triangle Razorbacks and Søllerød Golddiggers. It's like watching NFL on half speed. :lol:
"Af alle latterlige Ting forekommer det mig at være det allerlatterligste at have travlt" - Kierkegaard

"JamenajmenømahrmDÆ!DÆ! Æhvnårvaæhvadlelæh! Hvor er det crazy, det her, mand!" - Uffe Elbæk

Admiral Yi

Quote from: sbr on October 10, 2015, 08:42:08 AM
You have to remember that the bookmakers aren't trying to predict the final score, they are trying to get 50% of the money on both sides of the bet.  That way they break even on the bet and win with the rake.  I would guess that New England is a team that a lot of people like to bet on, so their lines are usually a bit smaller than they would be if the book was trying to predict the score.

Yup, which is why for you sometimes read about smart money waiting for a big city like New York moving the line before they play.  But in your example New England bets would move the line up, not down.

dps

Quote from: sbr on October 10, 2015, 08:42:08 AM
You have to remember that the bookmakers aren't trying to predict the final score, they are trying to get 50% of the money on both sides of the bet.  That way they break even on the bet and win with the rake.  I would guess that New England is a team that a lot of people like to bet on, so their lines are usually a bit smaller than they would be if the book was trying to predict the score.

Yeah, but you have it backwards.  If a lot of money is getting put on New England, the spread should get bigger to encourage more to be bet on the Cowboys.

sbr

Yeah it was early and I had it backwards, it is the Cowboys that get more money than they should.  I knew that but wasn't quite awake yet.

katmai

Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son

katmai

Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son

Liep

"Af alle latterlige Ting forekommer det mig at være det allerlatterligste at have travlt" - Kierkegaard

"JamenajmenømahrmDÆ!DÆ! Æhvnårvaæhvadlelæh! Hvor er det crazy, det her, mand!" - Uffe Elbæk

jimmy olsen

Dallas pass rush is fucking scary with Hardy on it. I can't remember the last time Brady got hammered so badly. Very impressed with how the offense adjusted and ended up scoring 30 points.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Liep

Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 12, 2015, 05:55:23 AM
Dallas pass rush is fucking scary with Hardy on it. I can't remember the last time Brady got hammered so badly. Very impressed with how the offense adjusted and ended up scoring 30 points.

With that offense the Dallas defense can't be expected to keep up.
"Af alle latterlige Ting forekommer det mig at være det allerlatterligste at have travlt" - Kierkegaard

"JamenajmenømahrmDÆ!DÆ! Æhvnårvaæhvadlelæh! Hvor er det crazy, det her, mand!" - Uffe Elbæk

derspiess

I got to be on the sideline with Erin Andrews.  And the Bengals won so they're 5-0 and stuff.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

jimmy olsen

The League seems unusually unbalanced this year. There are six undefeated teans and eight or nine that have one win or none.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Grey Fox

I go fishing for the weekend & you guys take all the Jamaal Charlers replacements :(
Colonel Caliga is Awesome.

Admiral Yi

Did you guys know Michael Strahan was hosting one of those morning shows.  :huh:

Grey Fox

Colonel Caliga is Awesome.