EU Immigration Crisis Megathread

[Martim Silva]

The latest figure in the German press is that there might be up to 1.5 million migrants coming to Germany this year as we still get about 10,000 per day. If there is a harsh winter, there is no way we can adequately house that many people. Will be interesting to see how this turns out. There is also forming quite a bit of resistance against Merkel even in the two mainstream parties that make up our governing coalition. This will turn ugly with a couple of weeks.

Let us just make the math:

10,000 entering Germany a day. The report says 920,000 are expected from October-December alone.

(A gigantic increase over the flow of the previous months, which in itself was already 750% higher than in 2014).

In practice, this means Germany will be taking 3,650,000 people a year.

But the report also notices that many of the new arrivals (69% male now, according to the latest numbers from the UNHCR) will ask for their families to join them, under the right of family reunion. The report published says that, given the family structures of the region, that means each male can bring between 6 to 8 people to the country.

Even assuming all females and children are tied to a male migrant (plenty are not, but let's assume they are), that means 54% of the new male arrivals can ask bring in their families.

Which means Germany is facing - using the lower figure of 6 people per male migrant - an added intake of 11,8 million people a year, in addition to the 3,6 million that enter by foot. And that is if the situation stabililizes, something it is not happening: the floodgates are opening and they are pouring in - do bear in mind most refugees are not syrians, but from other areas.

The EU is indeed trying to get Turkey to keep them, and improve the refugee camps' standards. But Erdogan yesterday mocked Europe's intentions and today he (and Donald Tusk) said to expect another 3 million to come soon (you can read about it on the BBC, or Bloomberg, or wherever).

This would suggest Turkey is so far not cooperating.

That said, even with current numbers of 3,6 million a year in Germany [plus a good number to Sweden] the welfare state cannot be sustained.

Requests for more flexibility to government deficits are already being done, both by the presidente of the European Parliament and the Finance ministers of Austria and Luxembourg, and is clear that to take care of all these millions new taxes are needed, and it will just be a matter of very few years before money runs out.

No matter how much the Gutmensch say, the math does not add up: the situation cannot be sustained, and if Germany continues to take people as it is now, it faces an economic collapse by the end of the decade.

(Not to mention Germans becoming a miniority in their own country by 2020, should family reunion rules apply. 2039, if they do not. And if so, why would migrants assimilate to a culture that is clearly dying very, very, fast?)

[Valmy]

Bush?

Well that goes without saying.

[frunk]

--Snip --

Huzzah for assuming that sudden changes will continue to be perpetuated indefinitely in the future!

See also every other panic about immigration, increased drug use or rising crime

[Martim Silva]

--Snip --

Huzzah for assuming that sudden changes will continue to be perpetuated indefinitely in the future!

See also every other panic about immigration, increased drug use or rising crime

"Assuming"?

FYI, what has been happing these last years is a gigantic increase in the numbers of asylum-seekers. By the hundres of percent every year, hitting dramatic levels this year and showing no sign of slowing down.

If anything, I am being conservative by saying the migratory flux may stay the same. This is not supported by the actual numbers, who indicate a dramatic increase in arrivals on a monthly basis.

Also, the European Council and Turkey are warning for many more millions to arrive.

What are YOUR basis to claim this will all die down in the future?

That all the billions of poor people in the third world will suddenly say, "oh going to the EU is SO yesterday" and give up on getting a better future?

Even today, the UK Home Secretary warned that the constant arrival of hundreds of thousands of people make it "impossible to build a choesive society".

http://news.yahoo.com/mass-immigration-damaging-britain-says-uk-interior-minister-074236631--business.html

And she is referring to the UK, that is taking in just 330,000 migrants a year, a mere 1/11th of what Germany is taking.

It's people like you, frunk, who always minimize very serious problems, and who were also the ones that, just some years ago, said that the possibility of flotillas of refugees crossing the seas to reach Europe from the Third World were just a "fantasy", that are part of the problem.

[Duque de Bragança]

Well, the inflow should slow down a bit with the bad season, but there's still time for a rush à la "last call".

Migrants rush to Europe before weather deteriorates
02/10 22:14 CET
As the weather starts to worsen, it seems an increasing number of migrants are heading for Greece.

People continued to arrive on the island of Lesbos on Friday, where the office of a former Greek justice minister was set on fire. Police think the attack could be linked to the influx.

Weather conditions are set to deteriorate in the coming weeks, with a drop in temperatures.

This will further increase the dangers of crossing the Aegean sea between Turkey and Greece by boat, the most perilous leg on the journey to safety for the vast majority of people escaping conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

"When we got in the dinghy and I saw the huge waves, I wanted to turn back. But where could I go back to?" asked one Syrian man, who reached the shores of Lesbos.

"We were forced to flee. I was afraid for my children, if anything happened to them I would be responsible."

Thousands of other migrants are using the so-called Balkan route to reach Europe.

On Friday, in Croatia, more than a thousand people travelled by train to a village near the Hungarian border. From there, they headed towards Hungary on foot.

Croatia says it has been overwhelmed with migrants after Hungary closed off its border with Serbia.

http://www.euronews.com/2015/10/02/migrants-rush-to-europe-before-weather-deteriorates/

[frunk]

What are YOUR basis to claim this will all die down in the future?

I can guarantee you that it will die down in the future.  It's a question of when, not if.  You are dealing with a highly variable situation and trying to assume that there's a steady state to be reached now or in the near term.  Flows like this that increase rapidly also drop rapidly, and you were projecting numbers out 5 years based on the amount of traffic (which itself has changed greatly) over a few months.  There's no way it's a meaningful estimate.

Total European population in 2013 was 742 million.  To reach the proportional amount of illegal immigration as the US had at its peak would require ~30 million.  It's quite possible that there will be many more immigrants to come, but unless there's incredible idiocy in the handling of it Europe should be able to deal.

[Syt]

German paper Tagesspiegel apologized for their recent front page:



Bottom headline: "Refugee crisis becomes Chefsache." ("Chefsache" is a German term for something that becomes so important/urgent that the boss is taking it over from the subordinates.) The picture is from a satirical movie about Hitler waking up in modern day Germany.

[Zanza]

@Martim: Many of your assumptions are wrong. Most importantly the figure already includes the expected family reunions and that asylum applications don't mean that people actually are admitted or stay indefinitely.

[Tamas]

@Martim: Many of your assumptions are wrong. Most importantly the figure already includes the expected family reunions and that asylum applications don't mean that people actually are admitted or stay indefinitely.

Dumping 400 thousand people back to Syria will be such a PR event.

[Syt]

@Martim: Many of your assumptions are wrong. Most importantly the figure already includes the expected family reunions and that asylum applications don't mean that people actually are admitted or stay indefinitely.

Did you watch the Panorama special about Jamel? I thought it was interesting, but also very light on any real new insights. The scary thing is I know from back home quite a few people like the head guy. Generally nice and friendly when you meet them/talk to them, but with a dark (or rather brown) and violent side when they're in groups or around population groups they don't approve of.

[Zanza]

@Martim: Many of your assumptions are wrong. Most importantly the figure already includes the expected family reunions and that asylum applications don't mean that people actually are admitted or stay indefinitely.

Dumping 400 thousand people back to Syria will be such a PR event.

Martim's argumentation is that most aren't even from Syria. And that is supported by the figures of our authorities. Like half of the people that arrived at least until August (haven't seen figures for the September distribution) were from the Western Balkans. We can and will deport them if they don't leave on their own after not being admitted. 

[Zanza]

@Martim: Many of your assumptions are wrong. Most importantly the figure already includes the expected family reunions and that asylum applications don't mean that people actually are admitted or stay indefinitely.

Did you watch the Panorama special about Jamel? I thought it was interesting, but also very light on any real new insights. The scary thing is I know from back home quite a few people like the head guy. Generally nice and friendly when you meet them/talk to them, but with a dark (or rather brown) and violent side when they're in groups or around population groups they don't approve of.

Is that the Nazi village in MeckPom? If so, no, I didn't see it. I know a couple of rather reactionary people at home as well. Generally intelligent, well-spoken, but really hardcore reactionaries. They aren't Nazis though, more fans of the Kaiserreich I guess. 

[Syt]

Yeah. You can watch it here, if you have half an hour to spare: http://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/panorama_die_reporter/Im-Nazidorf,panorama5828.html

[Josquius]

Whats with all the Serbs thinking they can still get assylum anyway

Bottom headline: "Refugee crisis becomes Chefsache." ("Chefsache" is a German term for something that becomes so important/urgent that the boss is taking it over from the subordinates.) The picture is from a satirical movie about Hitler waking up in modern day Germany.

Based on the book "Look who's back"??
Didn't know there was a film of it.

[The Larch]

Whats with all the Serbs thinking they can still get assylum anyway

It's not just Serbs, AFAIK there are also lots of Bosnians, Albanians and Kosovars trying to get refugee status in Germany. The overwhelming majority of them get rejected.