Raul Castro Demands Return of Guantanamo Bay, End of Trade Embargo

[celedhring]

One word, well more, about the notion that I keep seeing bandied about here and on TV and newspapers. "Cheap Cuban vacations."

There's this notion that Cuban vacations are cheaper than anywhere else and the resorts are dirty, cheap, cockroach infested places. As Bill Maher recently said, "stuck in the 60s."

As one who's been to Cuba, Mexico, Dominican Republic, it's important to clarify that the resorts in Cuba are comparable with resorts in both those two nations, in quality and prices. (at least in Canada).

They're what I call "working class vacation resorts." I've been to Granada, Aruba and Bahamas and those are all a step-above.

I'm going to Cuba at the end of Feb. and a 4+ resort where I stay costs close to $2000 for a week. There are pricer ones. There are cheaper ones. Same in Mexico or Dominican. I wouldn't stay in anything less than a 4star in either of these three places.

What would be interesting, once travel restrictions get lifted, is if Cuba aims higher, say to compete with Bahamas, or remain competitive with Mexico. Either way I'm sure Mexico isn't too thrilled about this.

And a lot of these resorts are owned by Spaniards, thanks to the embargo. Yanks will be going all 1898 on our economic interests once it is lifted.

[The Minsky Moment]

But I hear Gitmo is a very important base for the US to project power to Central and South America. I say lets keep the base and fuck the commies, Interview style.

Are you saying we need a base a hundred miles off our shores to project power thousands of miles, instead of using one of the other bases on the mainland?

Also there is a significant base in PR

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

But I hear Gitmo is a very important base for the US to project power to Central and South America. I say lets keep the base and fuck the commies, Interview style.

Are you saying we need a base a hundred miles off our shores to project power thousands of miles, instead of using one of the other bases on the mainland?

Like the one that is already on Key West.

[CountDeMoney]

Goddamn it, we signed a lease for a coaling station, we're going to keep a coaling station.

[grumbler]

But I hear Gitmo is a very important base for the US to project power to Central and South America. I say lets keep the base and fuck the commies, Interview style.

Are you saying we need a base a hundred miles off our shores to project power thousands of miles, instead of using one of the other bases on the mainland?

Also there is a significant base in PR

Exactly.  I don't think geography is one of Siegey's strong points.

[Admiral Yi]

I think he is demanding compensation for the effects of the embargo, not for the Gitmo lease.

[Malthus]

As for the rest ... what's Cuba's leverage to get compensation or a return of Guantanamo?

I'm a little shaky on public intl law, but I do think a sovereign state retains the absolute right to expropriate property (including revocation of concessions or leases) subject to a good faith duty to compensate.  The US does not dispute that Gitmo falls within Cuban territory.  Thus once it recognizes the Cuban government, it will either have to go if Cuba says so, stay and violate international law, or negotiate some other solution with Cuba up front.

I agree it is a negotiation issue but one where the background principles do give Cuba some leverage.

Expropriating property owned by another sovereign state for defence purposes may be a little more tricky - or at least, that fact may muddy the legal waters somewhat, enough that it won't be obvious that the US is violating international laws. Not that a little violation would bother the US all that much.  Hell, consider what went on *inside* that base ...

[Malthus]

I think he is demanding compensation for the effects of the embargo, not for the Gitmo lease.

Yup - it is the US who will want compensation, for expropriation by Cuba of its lease.

[Berkut]

Guantanamo is not owned by the US though, and the leasing treaty explicitly states that it remains Cuban sovereign territory.

At some level, I think that pretty much gives them the power to simply repudiate the treaty, and tell the US to call their bluff. Of course, that is basically what they did already, and the US pretty much said "That's nice, we aren't leaving, so nyah!"

[Tonitrus]

I doubt Gitmo's cost in upkeep is worth any remaining operational value.  And its "in-your-face-Fidel" value is waning fast.

Probably just best to pack up all the valuables and hand it over.  No need for any undignified hand-over ceremony, or Vietnam helicopter escape.  Just buck out and leave the Cubans to pick up the landmines and clean up the Jarhead poop (because you know the Marines would defecate on everything before leaving  ).

[The Minsky Moment]

Guantanamo is not owned by the US though, and the leasing treaty explicitly states that it remains Cuban sovereign territory.

At some level, I think that pretty much gives them the power to simply repudiate the treaty, and tell the US to call their bluff. Of course, that is basically what they did already, and the US pretty much said "That's nice, we aren't leaving, so nyah!"

Yes but the US also said we aren't leaving because you aren't the legit government and thus your lease termination is of no effect.  Which de facto may the equivalent of "nyah" but with the fig leaf of legality.

Once there is normalization that fig leaf is gone.  It would be different if there were some bona fide dispute over sovereignty but there isn't.

[derspiess]

Just buck out and leave the Cubans to pick up the landmines and clean up the Jarhead poop (because you know the Marines would defecate on everything before leaving  ).

I like that.  Cubans on the other side wake up one morning and nobody's there.  Just landmines and poop.  Plus maybe some Korans with pee on them.

[Admiral Yi]

Yup - it is the US who will want compensation, for expropriation by Cuba of its lease.

The bigger deal is the property that wasn't compensated when Fidel came to power.

[Valmy]

Meh just end the embargo and economic interest will do the rest.  The Cubans are in no position to make demands on us.

[Razgovory]

Yup - it is the US who will want compensation, for expropriation by Cuba of its lease.

The bigger deal is the property that wasn't compensated when Fidel came to power.

I think they can scrounge up 500 bucks to pay the estate of Meyer Lansky.